SUMMARY: Good morning! It’s the first day of fall, but temperatures will remain near 90 degrees today. In the tropics, we’re tracking a low-pressure system expected to develop over the Northwestern Caribbean, moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico midweek. It has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm, but current models are inconsistent due to the lack of a defined center. Residents from Southeastern Louisiana to Florida should monitor this system. Timing suggests impacts could occur from Thursday to Saturday. Meanwhile, enjoy the clear skies and warm beach weather as we stay above average through Tuesday.

The western Caribbean Sea will be an area to closely watch this week as global models point to the potential for tropical development. We are also watching a couple of other areas in the central and eastern Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring the northwestern Caribbean. An area of low pressure will develop in this region in the next day or two. Once this happens, there is a high chance that this system becomes a tropical system as it moves into the southern Gulf midweek.

WHAT WE KNOW:

We continue to track a low pressure that is expected to form in the NW Caribbean in the next day or two.

From there (Tues-Thurs timeframe), this low pressure is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico where it has a HIGH CHANCE of becoming a tropical system.

As this system enters the Gulf, no matter what it becomes, we WILL AT LEAST SEE surf increasing towards the end of the week.

Anyone in LA, MS, AL and FL need to monitor this closely. Possible tropical impacts would be Thurs-Sat…Exactly where these occur is still in question.

WHAT IS STILL UNCERTAIN:

Exact track. The low pressure has not even formed yet, much less a tropical system. Because models do not have anything to latch on to, they are ALL over the place unfortunately. Do not focus on one model or one run…It will change drastically. Also, the steering currents are VERY complex and will change.

Impacts for our area…We KNOW we will see rough surf, but exact impacts will depend on the ultimate track.

Timing…Broad timing looks to be Thurs-Sat as far as impacts go. Exactly where these occur is still in question.

Intensity – Depends on ultimate track and how it interacts with our systems steering it.

WHAT TO DO:

Have your kit and plan ready to go just in case.

Stay tuned to WKRG. We will continue to keep you updated.

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