Mississippi Today
Will Trump or Harris match record-setting voter turnout of 2020?
One of Vice President Kamala Harris’ most devastating zingers in last week‘s debate with former President Donald Trump was when she looked at him and said he โwas fired by 81 million people โฆ Clearly he is having a difficult time processing that.โ
Harris was correct about the 2020 election. That year more people voted against Trump than against any candidate in the history of the nation.
On the other hand, Trump is correct when he says he received more votes in that election than any incumbent president in the nation’s history. The only problem with that is that in that 2020 election, Joe Biden garnered more votes than any candidate had ever received.
Biden defeated Trump by about 7 million votes.
Turnout of the eligible voting-age population in 2020 was 66.7% โ the highest since 1900, according to Fair Vote, a national nonprofit promoting various voting reforms.
In Mississippi, the turnout compared to past elections in the state was high, but well below the national average. According to Fair Vote, the turnout in Mississippi in the 2020 election was 60.2%. And by the way, in the 2020 election, Trump received more votes โ 756,764 โ than any presidential candidate in Mississippi’s history. In 2008, incumbent U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran garnered 766,111 in his reelection bid against Democrat Erik Fleming.
This perhaps is an appropriate time to mention one of our funniest age-old political jokes: that the outcome of a particularly close election will depend on turnout.
All elections, of course, do depend on turnout. A candidate’s most basic mission is to get his or her voters to the polls. The only problem is that generally speaking, when a candidate drives up his or her voter turnout it also spikes on the other side.
That, in part, is why elections often turn so negative. It is part of the effort to depress the opponent’s turnout.
The question this election cycle is will people turn out to vote at as high a rate as is in 2020?
Will Trump garner as many votes as he did in 2020 โ more than 74 million โ the second most in the nation’s history? Canย Harris in 2024 match what Biden did in 2020 โ more than 81 million votes?
In other words, will voter interest or enthusiasm be as high on each side as it was in 2020? A drop on either side most likely will portend the winner of the November election.
There you go โย the old joke again.
In Mississippi, turnout was high in 2020 but much lower than the national average.
But there is a reason to believe that turnout might be higher in Mississippi this November. The two Democrats winning the most votes in federal elections in Mississippi history were Black candidates: Mike Espy in his unsuccessful U.S. Senate bid against Republican incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in 2020 and President Barack Obama in 2012. Espy captured 578,619 votes in losing to Hyde-Smith by 10% in 2020. In his successful reelection in 2012, Obama received 562,949 in Mississippi, or about 11.5% less than Republican Mitt Romney.
Minnesota generally is the state with the highest turnout, hovering near 80% โ almost 20% higher than the turnout in Mississippi.
If Mississippians come out to vote at the same level as Minnesotans in 2024, that would mean almost 260,000 more people would vote in 2024 than in 2020.
That could be enough votes to give the Democratic presidential nominee a victory in Mississippi for the first time since 1976.
Of course, that victory would only occur if Harris could ensure those extra votes were mostly her supporters.
After all, it’s all about the turnout.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Crooked Letter Sports Podcast
Podcast: New Orleans sports columnist and author Jeff Duncan joins the podcast to talk about his new Steve Gleason book and the new-look New Orleans Saints.
Jeff Duncan went from the Mississippi Book Festival in Jackson on Saturday to Jerry World in Dallas on Sunday where he watched and wrote about the Saints’ total dismantling of the Dallas Cowboys. We talk about both events and also about what happened in high school and college football last weekend and what’s coming up this weekend.
Stream all episodes here.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
On this day in 1899
Sept. 18, 1899
Scott Joplin, known as โthe King of Ragtime,โ copyrighted the โMaple Leaf Rag,โ which became the first song to sell more than 1 million copies of sheet music. The popularity launched a sensation surrounding ragtime, which has been called America’s โfirst classical music.โย
Born near Texarkana, Texas, Joplin grew up in a musical family. He worked on the railroad with other family members until he was able to earn money as a musician, traveling across the South. He wound up playing at the World’s Fair in Chicago in 1893, where he met fellow musician Otis Saunders, who encouraged him to write down the songs he had been making up to entertain audiences. In all, Joplin wrote dozens of ragtime songs.
After some success, he moved to New York City, hoping he could make a living while stretching the boundaries of music. He wrote a ragtime ballet and two operas, but success in these new forms eluded him. He was buried in a pauper’s grave in New York City in 1917.
More than six decades later, his music was rediscovered, initially by Joshua Rifkin, who recorded Joplin’s songs on a record, and then Gunther Schuller of the New England Conservatory, who performed four of the ragtime songs in concert: โMy faculty, many of whom had never even heard of Joplin, were saying things like, โMy gosh, he writes melodies like Schubert!’โ
Joplin’s music won over even more admirers through the 1973 movie, โThe Sting,โ which won an Oscar for the music. His song, โThe Entertainer,โ reached No. 3 on Billboard and was ranked No. 10 among โSongs of the Centuryโ list by the Recording Industry Association of America. His opera โTreemonishaโ was produced to wide acclaim, and he won a Pulitzer Prize in 1976 for his special contribution to American music.ย
โThe ragtime craze, the faddish thing, will obviously die down, but Joplin will have his position secure in American music history,โ Rifkin said. โHe is a treasurable composer.โ
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
Insurance chief Chaney hopes Mississippiโs homeowner rates are stabilizing
Mississippi Insurance Commissioner Mike Chaney says he is hopeful that the homeowner insurance rates that have spiked in recent years are now beginning to stabilize.
Chaney said he is hopeful that legislation passed during the 2024 session that provides grants to help homeowners put more wind resistant roofs on their homes will help lower the cost of premiums. He said the Legislature placed $5 million in the program.
โWhile this will help launch the program, the Legislature will need to provide additional annual funding well above this amount so that the program can provide the necessary benefits to reach a significant number of policyholders across our state,โ Chaney said via email.
While homeowners’ insurance rates in Mississippi have risen significantly, the increases have been less than in many surrounding states, according to various studies.
Chaney said his agency, which regulates the insurance industry in Mississippi, has received requests for double digit increases.
โWe worked with companies to consider less than what their indicated need was โฆ We feel that rate pressures will begin to stabilize along with inflation. Some companies that requested rates over 15% last year are now seeing a much lesser need โ many are now in single digits,โ Chaney said.
Inflation and the frequency of severe weather causing insurance claims are the two primary reasons for the increases in the homeowners’ insurance rates, according to Chaney.
Earlier this year the U.S. Senate issued a report addressing the rising costs of homeowners insurance premiums. The Democratic majority cited weather associated with climate change as the primary reason for the increase. Republicans discounted climate change and blamed the increase on inflation.
According to data compiled by Insurance.com and updated this month, the average cost of a policy for a $300,000 home in Mississippi is $3,380 per year, which is $779 or 30% above the national average.
The cost in Mississippi, though, is lower than many other Southern states. For instance, the cost in Louisiana is 38% above the national average and 52% above the national average in Arkansas. Florida is 70% above the national average while Texas is 48%. Other Southern states — Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky — are below the national average.
Realtor Magazine in May cited a report from Insurify, a virtual insurance company, saying, โThe states with the highest home insurance costs are prone to severe weather events. Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Arkansas and Mississippi are vulnerable to hurricanes. Texas, Colorado and Nebraska face a growing wildfire risk. Nebraska, Texas and Kansas are at high risk for tornadoes, being located in an area nicknamed โTornado Alley.’โ
Chaney said there are two types of processes for how insurance companies get rate increases. He said Mississippi is โa prior approvalโ state where the companies must receive approval from the regulator before an increase can be enacted. Other states –file and use states โ allow the company to enact the increase before receiving approval.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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