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Will Reeves prevail or will Mississippi’s power dynamic get “all shook up”?

Published

12 months ago

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A final look at the campaigns for governor, what to expect tonight, and potential flies in the ointment.

If I had a crystal ball, I could make a lot of money. Alas, I do not.

I have been asked a lot over the last week who would win the hotly contested race for governor between incumbent Republican Tate Reeves and his Democratic challenger, Brandon Presley. I’ve channeled my inner-Mike Leach. “The person with the most votes.”

Setting aside the pithiness, here is my final read of the gubernatorial campaigns and what I expect to unfold in today’s election.

Reeves’ Steady Hand

Reeves path in this race was always to remind voters that he is the steady hand. He’s been in policy making leadership for twelve years. Presley, by contrast, has no experience in a policy making role. He has also never managed something as complex as an entire government.

Confronted with an endless array of manmade and natural disasters over the last four years, Reeves proved competent in responding to challenges like the COVID pandemic and the Jackson water crisis.

On the affirmative side of the ledger, he successfully pushed the largest tax cut in Mississippi history and the largest teacher pay raise in state history. Under his watch, Mississippi has experienced the lowest unemployment rate (3%) on record and seen over $6.7 in new investments in the . During Reeves’ tenure as lt. governor and now governor, Mississippi’s test scores in reading and math skyrocketed. The state’s graduation rate eclipsed the national average.

Under normal circumstances, these are things that get an incumbent governor re-elected. One of the things that gets an incumbent unseated, though, is scandal.

Presley’s campaign and his allies have predictably made a hard push to link Reeves to the TANF welfare scandal first exposed prior to Reeves running for governor. There is no tangible evidence that Reeves was involved in the rogue decisions that occurred at the Department of Human Services, nor that he was aware of those decisions in real time.

DHS compliance with TANF regulations does not fall under the purview of Lt. Governor, the role Reeves had at the time the scandal was revealed. Reeves has not been investigated, named in civil litigation, or charged with any crime. Still, the court of public opinion operates differently than a court of . Evidence, in , is often not required.

Reeves has swung back on Presley, accusing the current North District Public Service Commissioner of illegally taking tens of thousands of dollars in campaign contributions from companies which Reeves says are regulated utilities. Mississippi law makes it a crime to do so, though questions have been raised about whether the solar companies donating to Presley are actually regulated utilities under the law.

We will find out today if the haymakers the candidates have thrown landed with voters.

Reeves has two very large things operating in his favor. He has an R next to his name in a state dominated by Republicans for the last two decades and he has the endorsement of one Donald J. Trump. Trump is polarizing, to be sure. Even in Republican circles. But his support should rally “the base” to turn out in places Reeves needs to run up the score. It is an enthusiasm booster.

Presley Shook It Up

Early in this race, I argued that the path for Presley was narrow, or more fittingly, a tightrope act. He needed to energize the African American base of Democratic Party in Mississippi to turn out near Barack Obama-levels, while simultaneously convincing a block of Republican voters that he is conservative enough to cross over and a block of national Democratic donors that he is not too conservative. Satisfying one essential constituency might mean losing another.

I still think that telling of the challenge is accurate. To Presley’s credit and the credit of his team, he’s not yet fallen off the rope. The Presley campaign has been disciplined with their message. They have shown real strength blocking and tackling on campaign basics and Presley has proven to be a tireless worker.

Presley’s camp has also narrowly focused on a handful of populist policies that have broad appeal on their face. Arguments against expansion, removing the sales tax on groceries, or implementing a new state car tag credit all take time and require deep thought. That does not translate well to a 30-second commercial or a pithy tweet.

And boy, has Presley raised some money. He’s more than doubled the fundraising effort of Jim Hood just four years ago. Dollars have poured in from across the country, with roughly 3/4ths of Presley’s money coming from out of state.

Like him. Don’t like him. As a matter of pure political acumen, he is the best candidate the Democratic Party has put up in decades. Along the way, Presley benefitted from persistently positive media coverage about his campaign and persistently negative coverage on Governor Tate Reeves.

Crystal Ball Time

Magnolia Tribune commissioned the last legitimate public poll done in the race in early October. That poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategies, put Reeves up by 8 points. A poll conducted a month prior by Siena College for Mississippi Today had Reeves up by 11 points. Both the Mason-Dixon and Siena College poll had Reeves over the 50 percent mark.

The only poll released since is a poll commissioned by the Democratic Governor’s Association that showed Reeves leading by only one point. These sorts of internal polls are often strategically released as propaganda to or depress turn out, or to encourage donations.

That said, it is almost certain that Reeves’ lead has closed in the last month. Voters have been inundated with well-made ads from the Presley campaign and the candidate has criss-crossed the state.

There is a tendency in hard fought political races to surrender conventional wisdom near the end of the race, to start doubting what seems obvious. But conventional wisdom is conventional for a reason. Conventional wisdom would have Reeves winning this race, perhaps by 4 or 5 points. He is an incumbent. He is a Republican in a Republican dominated state. He has been up in every poll released, in some cases by double digits.

But as in football, nothing is certain until the clock runs out. That’s what makes election season exciting, if not a bit tiresome.

Fly(s) in the Ointment

Saying turn out is key to winning political contests is a bit like, channeling Leach again, saying the team that scores the most points wins the . But there are significant turnout questions on both sides of the race.

Are Republicans enthusiastic about going to vote for Reeves or will some stay home? If they are not, that could spell trouble for the incumbent.

Can Presley draw above average African American voter turn out? If he cannot, he likely cannot win the race.

With few competitive down ballot races and far more uncontested local elections, turnout has been a concern for both camps. If absentee ballots are any indicator, that concern might not be warranted.

In 2019, 53,517 absentee ballots were accepted statewide. The ballots comprised 6 percent of the total vote. This year, 56,396 absentee ballots were accepted, a 5 percent increase. If the absentee ballots were to represent 6 percent of the total vote, turnout would be nearly 940,000 this cycle. That would be stout.

But a word of caution on reading too much into absentee requests, COVID disrupted patterns. It is harder to extrapolate from absentees post-pandemic.

One final word on flies in ointment. Well, two actually: Gwendolyn Gray. Gray is the third-party candidate who dropped out of the race for governor earlier this month. However, because the ballots had already been printed, her name still appears. She could force a runoff if she receives enough “protest” votes.

In 2019, there were two third-party candidates on the ballot for governor. Combined they received 1.3 percent of the vote.

Often, voters say they are considering a third-party candidate, but when they get in the booth, decide that they need to vote for one of the two people who will eventually win the race. My suspicion is that the same will unfold today. But even a 1.3 percent portion of the vote can make an impact in a razor thin race.

The post Will Reeves prevail or will Mississippi’s power dynamic get “all shook up”? appeared first on Magnolia Tribune.

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By: Russ Latino
Title: Will Reeves prevail or will Mississippi’s power dynamic get “all shook up”?

Published Date: Tue, 07 Nov 2023 13:29:03 +0000

Did you miss our previous article…
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Magnolia Tribune

Staring mortality in the face at Christmas

Published

11 months ago

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December 16, 2023

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My friend Jarrod is dying after an eight year battle with cancer. He’s lived a life worth celebrating, one that has drawn people to Christ.

I was going about my business this when I received a text that stopped me in my tracks. A college friend was being moved to hospice care.

Jarrod Egley was diagnosed with colorectal cancer in early 2017. In the fall of 2018, tests revealed the cancer had spread to his lungs and Jarrod’s cancer was classified as Stage IV.

For almost eight years from the date of the original diagnosis, he’s fought. Through surgeries, radiation, endless rounds and cycles of chemotherapy, and experimental immunotherapies, he’s fought.

Last year, I flew out to California and spent some time with Jarrod and his wife, Emily. We sat outside one night. He acknowledged to me that it was not a question of ‘if’, but ‘when’ the cancer would claim his life. I told him I was sorry, because what else is there to say?

We talked about our faith, about the trials of Job, about Jacob wrestling with God, about Paul’s affliction. But mostly we reflected on our time together in school, on the good things, and the mundane things, that happened since.

Jarrod and I met at Tulane University. One Sunday morning in the Spring of my freshman year, I rose from my dorm room bed, dressed, and began walking down Saint Charles Avenue in New Orleans with no particular agenda. I walked until I came across First Baptist Church and the thought flickered in the vacuous recesses of my brain to enter.

Some would say it was a lark. The Calvinist in me says providence. The walk that morning changed the trajectory of my time at Tulane and my life on the whole. Intervarsity Christian Fellowship and the Baptist Collegiate Ministry became central to my life and put me in regular league with Jarrod. I met him first at the BCM and we ultimately ended up attending church together.

Jarrod was a faithful servant on and off campus. He helped organize a group of us that would weekly make our way down to the Esplanade seawall on the backside of the French Quarter to feed the homeless. On Friday nights, he could be found at chapel with a small cadre of foregoing Bourbon Street for early 2000s worship music.

Jarrod was a loyal friend in those years. Never rude or biting. Not prone to an insult for an easy laugh. Persistently encouraging. An engineering student, his mind worked linearly and was oriented to problem solving. There were never a lot of wasted words — always a lot of deliberative questions when he disagreed or did not understand a point. He exhibited intelligence, empathy, and the kind of moral conviction that sets someone apart.

He also had a wry and dry sense of humor and a penchant for beating people at Madden football. He was fair-to-midland on the ultimate frisbee pitch. Along the way, there were crawfish boils, outtings, poorly attended Tulane football , and more than a decent amount of wing eating.

After college, I lost touch with Jarrod. He moved back to his home state of California. He got married to his college sweetheart, who could not have anticipated her husband’s journey, but has been a steady and constant helpmate throughout. Jarrod became a very successful engineer and a bourbon connoisseur. One of his bucket list trips took him to Kentucky, where he got to meet and became friends with bourbon “Hall of Famer” Freddie Johnson of Buffalo Trace acclaim.

Jarrod at Buffalo Trace Distillery (Spring 2022).

Sitting in his backyard nearly 20 years after graduating from Tulane, I saw many of the same qualities I had grown to admire when we were students together. I saw a husband who doted on and supported Emily’s passions. But I also saw someone whose body had been beaten to hell and back, who was tired, and who, like Jacob, had been wrestling with God. We quickly fell back into friendship, which perhaps is the mark of good friendship.

We all have aspirations in our youth — for the kind of spouse or parent we might be, for what we might accomplish, for what we might experience. Along the way, dreams are satisfied, modified, or they die on the vine. The clock inevitably works against all of us. That night in Oceanside, California, Jarrod, a numbers guy, saw that time was not on his side. He believed, as we all would, that he still had more to give, more impact to be made, and more things to see and experience.

After that , Jarrod and I stayed in touch, most frequently triggered by news of his cancer. It has been mostly the bad variety in recent months. Now spread throughout his body, down to his bones, he has lived in constant pain for months. Not even a steady diet of morphine and an implanted pain pump solve for it. Jarrod’s been hospitalized twelve times just in 2023.

But his matter of fact sense of humor and way of seeing the world remains in tact. So too does his faith that despite these trials, he has always been safe in the hands of Christ.

There are people in the world who believe that life is random, disordered, and without reason. I am not among them. I think my friend is staring mortality in the face at Christmas for a reason.

For thousands of years before Christ came, there was darkness and despair. Sin and shame gripped the hearts of . Until one holy night, God, in His infinite love, mercy and wisdom, sent His son to save. Jesus is the light of the world and the hope of man. He has won victory over and Jarrod’s will not be the exception. Jesus came for Jarrod, and for you.

For thousands of years since Jesus’s death, burial, and resurrection, His disciples have been used as divine instruments to point the way to God. Jarrod is among them. If life expectancies were the measure, Jarrod would be at the midway point for most people. He’s made a lifetime of impact for the Kingdom and on other people.

So, to my friend Jarrod, you were placed here with a purpose. You have your race. You are loved. And when this chapter closes, you will hear “well done, my good and faithful servant.” There is no greater evidence of a life well lived.

While Jarrod and Emily have been fortunate to have insurance, their portion of the medical bills so far in 2023 have eclipsed $30,000, and Emily is facing additional uncovered expenses during Jarrod’s hospice care, including a night nurse that costs over $400 a night. If you would like to defray the cost, a contribution can be made at their Go Fund Me page.

The post Staring mortality in the face at Christmas appeared first on Magnolia Tribune.

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By: Russ Latino
Title: Staring mortality in the face at Christmas

Published Date: Sat, 16 Dec 2023 15:05:22 +0000

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Magnolia Tribune

Magnolia Mornings: December 15, 2023

Published

11 months ago

on

December 15, 2023

By

Important state and national stories, market and business news, sports and entertainment, delivered in quick-hit fashion to start your day informed.

In Mississippi

1. Laurin St. Pe’ named CEO of Singing River Health System

Laurin St. Pe

The Board of Trustees of Singing River System announced the immediate appointment of Laurin St. Pe’ as the Chief Executive Officer on Thursday.

“We are thrilled to announce Laurin St. Pe as the new CEO of Singing River,” said Steve Ates, Board President in a statement. “His wealth of healthcare experience and proven track record make him the ideal leader to steer our health system toward its next phase of growth and success.”

St. Pe’, who has been serving as Interim CEO since July 2023, said he is honored to assume the role of CEO at Singing River. He has worked at Singing River as Administrator of Singing River Health System’s Pascagoula Hospital and Gulfport Hospital, in addition to overseeing program service lines throughout the entire system to his subsequent appointment as Chief Operating Officer of Singing River.

The health system says St. Pe played a crucial role in the financial revitalization of Singing River Health System while steering the organization toward financial stability.

2. Gulfport-Biloxi airport, Stennis evacuated after threats

The Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport was evacuated on Thursday morning “out of an abundance of caution,” airport officials said, after receiving an emailed threat to certain transportation entities across the state.

The airport was thoroughly security swept, cleared and reopened in just over two hours. Gulfport-Biloxi is now operating regularly.

The threat was also sent to Stennis International Airport. Their staff and personnel were also evacuated until the facilities could be swept and cleared.

Any passenger whose travel was affected by the evacuation is encouraged to contact their respective air carrier.

3. Cassidy arrested in Iowa for beheading Satanic Temple statue

Former Mississippi congressional and legislative candidate Michael Cassidy was this in Iowa for beheading a statue at the state’s Capitol erected by The Satanic Temple.

Cassidy reportedly decapitated the statue and turned himself to police on Thursday. He was charged with fourth degree criminal mischief. He then started an online legal defense fund where he’s raised upwards of $20,000 as of Thursday night, according to his X account.

4. “Serial fraudster” ordered to cease offering investments into companies

According to the Mississippi Secretary of State’s office, on October 26, 2023, Secretary Michael Watson and the Securities Division issued an order against Stephone N. Patton. The SOS says Patton is a serial fraudster with multiple criminal convictions in Mississippi and Florida.

Through business filings with the SEC and Mississippi, Patton has held himself to be the CEO of various companies, including Star Oil and Gas Company, Inc., North Gulf Energy Corporation, Inc., Patton Oilfield Services, Inc., and Patton Farms, LLC.

The SOS says using these business filings and company websites, Patton claimed to have raised hundreds of billions of dollars through investment opportunities. Through investigative efforts and collaboration with the SEC, the SOS discovered none of Patton’s companies are operational, have any assets, or generate any revenues. Account records show Patton spent investors’ funds almost as soon as he received them on personal expenses. The total amount of known investments made to Patton’s fraudulent companies is over $80,000. Further, none of Patton’s investment offerings have been registered or notice filed with the Mississippi Secretary of State’s Office.

The SOS order requires Patton to cease and desist from offering investments with his companies, requiring Patton to permanently deactivate his companies’ websites to prevent any further dissemination of his false or misleading information. Patton is also ordered to pay an administrative penalty of $25,000 to the Mississippi Secretary of State’s Office for these violations, in addition to restitution owed to all his Mississippi investors.

National News & Foreign Policy

1. Congressional retirements mounting as 2024 election cycle nears

Retirement and departure announcements are piling up ahead of the start to the 2024 election cycle. The New York Times has developed a Retirement Tracker that currently shows 22 Democrats and 11 who are in Congress now will not be seeking re-election next year.

“Dozens of members of Congress have announced plans to leave their seats in the House of Representatives, setting a rapid pace for congressional departures, with more expected as the 2024 election draws closer,” the NY Times reports. “Given Republicans’ razor-thin House majority, the wave of exits has the potential to lead to a significant shake-up next year.”

You can find the tracker here.

2. Texas, Daily Wire, The Federalist sue U.S. State Department over media censorship

The U.S. State Department’s Global Engagement Center has come under fire as Texas Ken Paxton along with The Wire and The Federalist have filed a federal lawsuit alleging that the department funded technology that could “render disfavored press outlets unprofitable.” They claim that the department has helped social media – Facebook, YouTube and X (formerly Twitter) – to censor free speech while funding technologies used to censor right-leaning news outlets such as theirs.

New Civil Liberties Alliance is representing The Daily Wire and The Federalist. Paxton and the outlets claim the Global Disinformation Index (GDI), a British think tank, received a $100,000 grant from the State Department in 2021, and NewsGuard, which rates the “misinformation” levels of news outlets, received $25,000 from the State Department in 2020, according to the lawsuit.

According to the State Department’s website, the Global Engagement Center’s mission is to direct, lead, synchronize, integrate, and coordinate U.S. Federal efforts to recognize, understand, expose, and counter foreign state and non-state propaganda and disinformation efforts aimed at undermining or influencing the policies, security, or stability of the United States, its allies, and partner nations.

As reported by Reuters, the lawsuit cited a GDI-produced list from December 2022 that ranked The Daily Wire and The Federalist as among the 10 “riskiest sites” for news while the least-risky included The New York Times, Associated Press and NPR. Reuters notes that the lawsuit alleges such “blacklists” are reducing revenues to The Daily Wire and The Federalist along with their visibility on social media and ranking results from browser searches.

Sports & Entertainment

1. SEC releases 2024 schedules

Wednesday evening, the Southeastern Conference released the 2024 football schedules for its member schools, including of interest in the Magnolia State the schedules for Ole Miss and Mississippi State.

It is the first schedule that includes new conference members University of Oklahoma and University of Texas, bringing the conference to 16 schools. Each SEC team will play eight conference football plus at least one required opponent from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 12 or major independent, each team will have two open dates.

The 2024 season will be the first year the SEC will play a schedule without divisional competition since 1991. The top two teams in the league standings based on winning percentage will play in the 33rd SEC Football Championship in Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Saturday, December 7.

2. White, Jesiolowski, Jones honored by MAIS

John White

The Midsouth Association of Independent Schools (MAIS) in Mississippi, comprised of non-public schools, announced this week that -Ridgeland Academy’s senior quarterback John White was named the 6A Player of the Year while Hartfield’s Reed Jesiolowski and Hartfield Chris Jones were named the MAIS 6A Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year, respectively.

All three have committed to play college football at the University of Mississippi.

White is Mississippi’s all-time leader in career passing yards with 15,259 yards, a record he broke during the 2023 season.

MAIS, like the Mississippi High School Activities Association (MHSAA) for public schools, is broken down into classifications, from 1A to 6A. However, MHSAA added a 7A this season.

Markets & Business

1. Consumer retail sales up as energy, gas prices move down

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this week that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in November after being unchanged in October. Retail sales rose 0.3% in November after rising 0.2% in October, meaning consumers continue to spend at the start of the holiday season.

The CPI or inflation rate is 3.1%, higher than the Federal Reserve target of 2% but below the 9% peak in 2022 which reached a 40-year high.

As for the energy index, BLS reported that it fell 2.3% in November after decreasing 2.5% in October. The gasoline index decreased 6% in November, following a 5% decrease in the previous month.

The index for fuel oil fell in November, decreasing 2.7%. However, the natural gas index rose 2.8% over the month after rising 1.2% the previous month. The index for electricity also rose 1.4% in November, after increasing 0.3% in October.

The energy index fell 5.4% over the past 12 months. The gasoline index decreased 8.9%, the natural gas index declined 10.4%, and the fuel oil index fell 24.8% over this 12-month span.

2. Week’s market rally continues into Friday

At close of trading on Thursday, the U.S. markets continued the week’s rally, pushing the Dow up 158 points to 37,248 while the Nasdaq and S&P also made gains, 27 points and 12 points, respectively, to close at 14,761 and 4,719.

The record high for the Dow on Thursday moved futures up 102 points.

According to CNBC, the major averages are headed for their seventh straight positive week. As of Thursday, the Dow is higher on the week by 2.8%. The S&P 500 is up by 2.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.5% this week.

Stocks rallied after the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged this week while members look towards cuts in the new year and beyond.

The post Magnolia Mornings: December 15, 2023 appeared first on Magnolia Tribune.

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By: Magnolia Tribune
Title: Magnolia Mornings: December 15, 2023

Published Date: Fri, 15 Dec 2023 13:00:00 +0000

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New water rates expected in Jackson come 2024; those who don’t pay face shut off

Published

11 months ago

on

December 15, 2023

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Interim Third-Party Director Ted Henifin said this week that only about 59% of the City of Jackson’s water customers are paying their bills.

JXN Water has announced new rates and fees coming in 2024. Those who are not paying will be at risk of shut offs.

The company, which was established by federal appointed interim Third-Party Director Ted Henifin, has been overseeing the ‘s water system for the better part of a year.

estimated that the average cost for water in the city was $76 per month for . Henifin clarified that JXN water will not attempt to recoup any charges prior to November 29, 2022, and will work with those who have failed to pay since that time.

He said only about 59 percent of the city’s water customers are paying their bills.

“You can’t forgive bills, so we have to be creative in how we part that,” said Henifin in reference to Mississippi’s laws that prevent giving away water.

According to a release by JXN Water announcing the rate changes, residents in single households with small meters that use up to 748 daily would see a bill increase of roughly .30 cents per day. Research indicates that the average U.S. family uses 300 gallons per day.

SNAP customers will have a new rate tier that could lower their bill by up to .69 cents per day, on average.

“Those who need to save the most benefit from saving money by drinking tap water. This new rate structure makes water affordability possible for 12,500 JXN Water customers who SNAP ,” said Henifin in the release.

Read more about the anticipated rate changes here.

New fees will also be implemented, a new service fee of $50, service deposit of $100, returned check fee of $25, service restoration fee of $100, and meter tampering charge of $500. 

JXN Water has continued to encourage residents to use the water, with Henifin going on the record in a federal status hearing saying that the water “was safe to drink.”

More conversation regarding the billing process is expected to come at next ‘s City Council meeting.

The post New water rates expected in Jackson come 2024; those who don’t pay face shut off appeared first on Magnolia Tribune.

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By: Sarah Ulmer
Title: New water rates expected in Jackson come 2024; those who don’t pay face shut off

Published Date: Fri, 15 Dec 2023 20:00:00 +0000

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