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Why some Democrats are approaching Brandon Presley’s momentum with caution

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Welcome to The Homestretch, a daily blog featuring the most comprehensive coverage of the 2023 Mississippi governor’s race. This page, curated by the Mississippi Today politics team, will feature the biggest storylines of the 2023 governor’s race at 7 a.m. every day between now and the Nov. 7 election.

Everyone in Mississippi politics feels the momentum Democrat Brandon Presley has right now in his bid to unseat Republican Gov. Tate Reeves.

There are the finance reports that show Presley outraising Reeves, one of the most prolific fundraisers in state’s history. There are the public and private polls that show Reeves under 50 points and Presley within striking distance. There’s the mad scramble of Republican leaders begging voters to turn out on Nov. 7. Even Reeves himself has cranked up the intensity of his attacks against Presley in the past couple weeks.

The buzz among the political class — Republicans and Democrats alike — about the closeness of this governor’s race and the threat Presley poses to the incumbent has reached new heights. But some of the most experienced Democratic consultants in Mississippi are approaching the moment with caution.

To get a sense of their sentiments, Mississippi Today reached out to four Democratic consultants in Mississippi who have not worked for the Presley campaign this cycle. We offered them anonymity to frankly share what was on their mind one week from Election Day.

Their thoughts ranged from varying levels of optimism about the race to frustration about a lack of investment in the state party to knocks on Reeves’ and Presley’s strategy. (Warning: There’s some dirty language in these quotes.)

Consultant 1: “A big difference between 2019 and this year is that Jim Hood peaked in late August and then all the momentum was moving towards Tate after that. That doesn’t seem to be the case here. For Brandon to win, he needed to run a near-perfect campaign. And he’s done that. I honestly would’ve thought that Tate would be up by 6-8 points right now, but he certainly isn’t running like he’s up. Brandon started out further behind than Hood because of name ID, and the environment for Dems is not great right now. Biden is super unpopular, and the issue that has kept Democrats afloat in other states — Dobbs — isn’t relevant to this race … But I’ll say this, if Brandon does win, it’ll be because he actually, genuinely cared about winning Black voters.”

Consultant 2: “I am not being critical of out-of-state consultants. Lord knows there’s enough work here for everybody. But with the money being spent on TV, we could invest in local Democrats and people like (attorney general candidate) Greta Kemp Martin. It’s the money. We wait on national orgs to be excited enough for us to acquire the money and then we turn around and spend it how they see fit with no regard for the problems we know exist … as long as it’s machine versus machine, we risk falling short every time. Think about it like this: If the Mississippi Democratic apparatus had the funds it always needed, Brandon wouldn’t have had to spend all that money on TV to raise his own name ID after 16 years in office because that would have been done already. What we’re doing as Democrats is not sustainable. It’ll be Brandon this November, but it’s political malpractice that I can’t tell you in good faith who it’ll be in 4, 8, even 12 years.”

Consultant 3: “Does it feel different right now than it did four years ago? Yes. Do I think that means Brandon will force a runoff or win? Maybe. Brandon is a very good candidate. But if Tate decided that poor people should be able to see a doctor without going broke, I can’t imagine we’d all feel this level of uncertainty going into Election Day.”

Consultant 4: “We all kept saying it would require a perfect storm for Brandon to be competitive. And I don’t think any of us believed that those variables would align with the calendar in such a way that we would feel good a week out. But here we are, a week out, and god help me I feel cautiously optimistic? It’s terrifying. I’m impressed by the quick turn work the party itself has done to engage Black voters. I’m pleased that the Presley campaign has so visibly courted Black voters and the endorsements of high-profile Black political and faith leaders. But if I never hear ‘let’s go Brandon’ again, it’ll be too soon.”

Headlines From The Trail

‘They don’t trust Tate Reeves’: Radio host explains why conservative voters are struggling with governor’s race

Podcast: At long last, Reeves and Presley will debate

Democratic Elvis relative hopes turnout is enough to unseat Mississippi Gov. Reeves

Could Mississippi Actually Elect a Democratic Governor?

Candidate for Mississippi governor visits Southaven to ‘narrow the gap’

Mississippi Insight: One-on-ones with Reeves and Presley

Debate between Reeves, Presley set for Wednesday

What We’re Watching

1) The final campaign finance reports of the race are due today at 5 p.m., meaning Mississippi voters will get one last peek at how much money Reeves and Presley have raised and spent before the Nov. 7 election. The last report showed Presley outraised Reeves fairly substantially, though Reeves had more cash on hand to spend.

2) Milton Kuykendall — a very well-known DoSoto Countian who is the school’s former superintendent of education, a legendary high school basketball coach, and a Republican — endorsed Presley this week. DeSoto County has traditionally been a Republican stronghold, though a population boom over the past two decades (many people moving out to Memphis’ southern suburbs) is making the county more politically competitive by the cycle. The endorsement is a big get for Presley in a place that’s home to a whole lot of voters who could move the needle on Nov. 7.

3) The first and only debate between Reeves and Presley will be broadcast live on Wednesday, Nov. 1. If you’re in the Jackson metro area on Nov. 1, come to Hal & Mal’s for a free Mississippi Today watch party. Doors open at 6 p.m., we’ll stream the debate live at 7 p.m. on the big screen, and we’ll host a few minutes of live analysis as soon as it ends. Click this link for more information and to register. We hope to see you there!

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

Mississippi Today

On this day in 1956

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mississippitoday.org – Jerry Mitchell – 2025-02-24 07:00:00

Feb. 24, 1956

In 1976, the statue of U.S. Sen. Harry F. Byrd Sr. was erected near the Virginia Capitol. In 2021, the statue was finally removed. Credit: Wikipedia

U.S. Sen. Harry F. Byrd Sr. coined the term “Massive Resistance” to unite white leaders in Virginia in their campaign to preserve segregation. The policy appealed to white Virginians’ racial views, their fears and their disdain for federal “intrusion” into the “Southern way of life.” 

Virginia passed laws to deny state funds to any integrated school and created tuition grants for students who refused to attend these schools. Other states copied its approach. 

When courts ordered desegregation in several schools in Charlottesville and Norfolk, Virginia Gov. James Lindsay Almond Jr. ordered those schools closed. When Almond continued that defiance, 29 of the state’s leading businessmen told him in December 1958 that the crisis was adversely affecting Virginia’s economy. Two months later, the governor proposed a measure to repeal the closure laws and permit desegregation. 

On Feb. 2, 1959, 17 Black students in Norfolk and four in Arlington County peacefully enrolled in what had been all-white schools.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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Mississippi Today

If Tate Reeves calls a tax cut special session, Senate has the option to do nothing

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mississippitoday.org – Bobby Harrison – 2025-02-23 06:00:00

An illness is spreading through the Mississippi Capitol: special session fever.

Speculation is rampant that Gov. Tate Reeves will call a special session if the Senate does not acquiesce to his and the House leadership’s wishes to eliminate the state personal income tax.

Reeves and House leaders are fond of claiming that the about 30% of general fund revenue lost by eliminating the income tax can be offset by growth in other state tax revenue.

House leaders can produce fancy charts showing that the average annual 3% growth rate in state revenue collections can more than offset the revenue lost from a phase out of the income tax.

What is lost in the fancy charts is that the historical 3% growth rate in state revenue includes growth in the personal income tax, which is the second largest source of state revenue. Any growth rate will entail much less revenue if it does not include a 3% growth in the income tax, which would be eliminated if the governor and House leaders have their way. This is important because historically speaking, as state revenue grows so does the cost of providing services, from pay to state employees, to health care costs, to transportation costs, to utility costs and so on.

This does not even include the fact that historically speaking, many state entities providing services have been underfunded by the Legislature, ranging from education to health care, to law enforcement, to transportation. Again, the list goes on and on.

And don’t forget a looming $25 billion shortfall in the state’s Public Employee Retirement System that could create chaos at some point.

But should the Senate not agree to the elimination of the income tax and Reeves calls a special session, there will be tremendous pressure on the Senate leadership, particularly Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann, the chamber’s presiding officer.

Generally speaking, a special session will provide more advantages for the eliminate-the-income-tax crowd.

First off, it will be two against one. When the governor and one chamber of the Legislature are on the same page, it is often more difficult for the other chamber to prevail.

The Mississippi Constitution gives the governor sole authority to call a special session and set an agenda. But the Legislature does have discretion in how that agenda is carried out.

And the Legislature always has the option to do nothing during the special session. Simply adjourn and go home is an option.

But the state constitution also says if one chamber is in session, the other house cannot remain out of session for more than three days.

In other words, theoretically, the House and governor working together could keep the Senate in session all year.

In theory, senators could say they are not going to yield to the governor’s wishes and adjourn the special session. But if the House remained in session, the Senate would have to come back in three days. The Senate could then adjourn again, but be forced to come back if the House stubbornly remained in session.

The process could continue all year.

But in the real world, there does not appear to be a mechanism — constitutionally speaking — to force the Senate to come back. The Mississippi Constitution does say members can be “compelled” to attend a session in order to have a quorum, but many experts say that language would not be relevant to make an entire chamber return to session after members had voted to adjourn.

In the past, one chamber has failed to return to the Capitol and suffered no consequences after the other remained in session for more than three days.

As a side note, the Mississippi Constitution does give the governor the authority to end a special session should the two chambers not agree on adjournment. In the early 2000s, then-Gov. Ronnie Musgrove ended a special session when the House and Senate could not agree on a plan to redraw the state’s U.S. House districts to adhere to population shifts found by the U.S. Census.

But would Reeves want to end the special session without approval of his cherished income tax elimination plan?

Probably not.

In 2002 there famously was an 82-day special session to consider proposals to provide businesses more protection from lawsuits. No effort was made to adjourn that session. It just dragged on until the House finally agreed to a significant portion of the Senate plan to provide more lawsuit protection.

In 1969, a special session lasted most of the summer when the Legislature finally agreed to a proposal of then-Gov. John Bell Williams to opt into the federal Medicaid program.

In both those instances, those wanting something passed — Medicaid in the 1960s and lawsuit protections in the 2000s — finally prevailed.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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Mississippi Today

On this day in 1898

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mississippitoday.org – Jerry Mitchell – 2025-02-22 07:00:00

Feb. 22, 1898

Lavinia Baker and her five surviving children. A white mob set fire to their house and fatally shot and killed her husband, Frazier Baker, and baby girl Julia on Feb. 22, 1898. Left to right: Sarah; Lincoln, Lavinia; Wille; Cora, Rosa Credit: Wikipedia

Frazier Baker, the first Black postmaster of the small town of Lake City, South Carolina, and his baby daughter, Julia, were killed, and his wife and three other daughters were injured when a lynch mob attacked

When President William McKinley appointed Baker the previous year, local whites began to attack Baker’s abilities. Postal inspectors determined the accusations were unfounded, but that didn’t halt those determined to destroy him. 

Hundreds of whites set fire to the post office, where the Bakers lived, and reportedly fired up to 100 bullets into their home. Outraged citizens in town wrote a resolution describing the attack and 25 years of “lawlessness” and “bloody butchery” in the area. 

Crusading journalist Ida B. Wells wrote the White House about the attack, noting that the family was now in the Black hospital in Charleston “and when they recover sufficiently to be discharged, they) have no dollar with which to buy food, shelter or raiment. 

McKinley ordered an investigation that led to charges against 13 men, but no one was ever convicted. The family left South Carolina for Boston, and later that year, the first nationwide civil rights organization in the U.S., the National Afro-American Council, was formed. 

In 2019, the Lake City post office was renamed to honor Frazier Baker. 

“We, as a family, are glad that the recognition of this painful event finally happened,” his great-niece, Dr. Fostenia Baker said. “It’s long overdue.”

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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