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Surge in state revenue takes experts by surprise — or does it?

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With one month remaining in the fiscal year, the state has collected $653 million in revenue more than Mississippi’s financial experts estimated would be collected.

The official guesstimate — er, estimate — is important because it represents the amount of revenue available primarily from general tax collections for the Legislature to appropriate to fund education, health care and other vital services. In other words, late in the 2022 session, legislators made an official estimate that was used to fund state government for the next fiscal year, starting July 1 of last year. With one month remaining in the fiscal year, the state is collecting 10.7% more than that official estimate.

It is important to understand that the revenue over the estimate is normally put into accounts to spend on capital expenses instead of programs to improve governmental services, such as services to curb the 900% increase in newborns with syphilis that occurred over a six-year period in Mississippi.

The official estimate is agreed upon by the legislative leaders and the governor in November before the start of the session. Later on, legislative leaders who serve on the Legislative Budget Committee have the authority to change the estimate — sans input from the governor — during the session before a final budget is adopted by the Legislature and signed into law by the governor.

State law spells out the process for the Legislature and governor to come together to adopt a revenue estimate. What state law does not address is that the revenue estimate for years has been based on recommendations of five financial experts. The recommendation of the five-member revenue estimating committee is generally, though not always, accepted by the political leaders.

That committee consists of:

  • Corey Miller, the state economist.
  • Liz Welch, the executive director of the Department of Finance and Administration.
  • David McRae, the state treasurer.
  • Chris Graham, the state revenue commissioner.
  • Tony Greer, the executive director of the Legislative Budget Committee.

They meet behind closed doors to study economic trends and try to predict the future in order to make a recommendation. And as former Gov. Haley Barbour used to say, they will never be right.

Because of the uncertainty of their work, there are safeguards built in to try to avoid mid-year budget cuts. For instance, under state law only 98% of projected revenue is supposed to be appropriated. That 2%, about $150 million, provides a cushion if revenue does not meet projections.

While the revenue estimating group never gets it right, the panel has been more wrong than normal in recent years and has received some criticism. Revenue exceeded estimates by an unfathomable $1.5 billion or 24.6% for fiscal year 2022, and by $1.05 billion or 18.5% for fiscal year 2021. And with one month left in the 2023 fiscal year, revenue collections are again exceeding expectations by a substantial margin.

In fairness to the group, no one expected revenue collections to skyrocket like they did after the COVID-19 pandemic, when billions in federal funds were pumped into the state, spurring economic growth. Most states have experienced similar revenue surges. After a brief but dramatic COVID-inspired drop in collections in early 2020, revenue collections soared and have not come down, though in recent months it appears they might be returning to earth.

Before the pandemic, revenue exceeded projections by 1.6% in 2018 and by 5.5% in 2019. In fiscal year 2020 revenue was 0.72% below the projections. The pandemic hit late in the 2020 fiscal year and revenue dipped briefly before the unprecedented growth began.

In addition to the uncertainty of projecting state revenue collections more than a year in advance, it also is reasonable to assume the committee members are yielding at least slightly to the governing principles of the governor and the legislative leaders in making their recommendations.

The scripted format of the meetings where the recommendations are made is often obvious, and no one involved in following that script is going to win an Academy Award. A lower revenue estimate means the Legislature does not have as much money to spend.

And Reeves and legislative leaders such as Speaker Philip Gunn have worn cuts in state government like a badge of honor. They have not hidden their obsession with cutting or curbing state government spending.

Two of the members of the estimating committee, the DFA executive director and the revenue commissioner, are appointed by the governor. The head of the Legislative Budget Committee staff, of course, is tabbed by the legislative leadership. The treasurer is elected statewide, while the state economist falls under the authority of the Institutions of Higher Learning Board.

In other words, in making their official guesstimate, the experts face not only the uncertainties of projecting the economy months in advance but pressures — even if unspoken — of the political leaders they serve.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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Mississippi Today

On this day in 1956

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mississippitoday.org – Jerry Mitchell – 2024-12-25 07:00:00

Dec. 25, 1956

Civil rights activist Fred Shuttllesworth Credit: Wikipedia

Fred Shuttlesworth somehow survived the KKK bombing that took out his home next to the Bethel Baptist Church in Birmingham, Alabama.

An arriving policeman advised him to leave town fast. In the “Eyes on the Prize” documentary, Shuttlesworth quoted himself as replying, “Officer, you’re not me. You go back and tell your Klan brethren if God could keep me through this, then I’m here for the duration.’”

Shuttlesworth and Bethel saw what happened as proof that they would be protected as they pursued their fight against racial injustice. The next day, he boarded a bus with other civil rights activists to challenge segregation laws that persisted, despite a U.S. Supreme Court decision that ordered the city of Montgomery, Alabama, to desegregate its bus service.

Months after this, an angry mob of Klansmen met Shuttlesworth after he tried to enroll his daughters into the all-white school in Birmingham. They beat him with fists, chains and brass knuckles. His wife, Ruby, was stabbed in the hip, trying to get her daughters back in the car. His daughter, Ruby Fredericka, had her ankle broken. When the examining physician was amazed the pastor failed to suffer worse injuries, Shuttlesworth said, “Well, doctor, the Lord knew I lived in a hard town, so he gave me a hard head.”

Despite continued violence against him and Bethel, he persisted. He helped Martin Luther King Jr. found the Southern Christian Leadership Conference and was instrumental in the 1963 Birmingham Campaign that led to the desegregation of downtown Birmingham.

A statue of Shuttlesworth can be seen outside the Birmingham Civil Rights Institute, and Birmingham’s airport bears his name. The Bethel church, which was bombed three times, is now a historic landmark.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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Mississippi Today

On this day in 1865

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mississippitoday.org – Jerry Mitchell – 2024-12-24 07:00:00

Dec. 24, 1865

The Ku Klux Klan began on Christmas Eve in 1865. Credit: Zinn Education Project

Months after the fall of the Confederacy and the end of slavery, a half dozen veterans of the Confederate Army formed a private social club in Pulaski, Tennessee, called the Ku Klux Klan. The KKK soon became a terrorist organization, brutalizing and killing Black Americans, immigrants, sympathetic whites and others. 

While the first wave of the KKK operated in the South through the 1870s, the second wave spread throughout the U.S., adding Catholics, Jews and others to their enemies’ list. Membership rose to 4 million or so. 

The KKK returned again in the 1950s and 1960s, this time in opposition to the civil rights movement. Despite the history of violence by this organization, the federal government has yet to declare the KKK a terrorist organization.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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Mississippi Today

An old drug charge sent her to prison despite a life transformation. Now Georgia Sloan is home

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mississippitoday.org – Mina Corpuz – 2024-12-24 04:00:00

CANTON –  Georgia Sloan is home, back from a potentially life-derailing stint in prison that she was determined to instead make meaningful. 

She hadn’t used drugs in three years and she had a life waiting for her outside the Mississippi Correctional Institute for Women in Pearl: a daughter she was trying to reunite with, a sick mother and a career where she found purpose. 

During 10 months of incarceration, Sloan, who spent over half of her life using drugs, took classes, read her Bible and helped other women. Her drug possession charge was parole eligible, and the Parole Board approved her for early release. 

At the end of October, she left the prison and returned to Madison County. The next day she was back at work at Musee, a Canton-based bath products company that employs formerly incarcerated women like Sloan and others in the community facing difficulties. She first started working at the company in 2021. 

“This side of life is so beautiful. I would literally hold on to my promise every single minute of the day while I was in (prison),” Sloan told Mississippi Today in December. 

Next year, she is moving into a home in central Mississippi, closer to work and her new support system. Sloan plans to bring her daughter and mother to live with her. Sloan is hopeful of regaining custody of her child, who has been cared for by her aunt on a temporary basis. 

“This is my area now,” she said. “This has become my family, my life. This is where I want my child to grow up. This is where I want to make my life because this is my life.” 

Additionally, Sloan is taking other steps to readjust to life after prison: getting her driver’s license for the first time in over a decade, checking in monthly with her parole officer and paying court-ordered fines and restitution. 

In December 2023, Sloan went to court in Columbus for an old drug possession charge from when she was still using drugs. 

Sloan thought the judge would see how much she had turned her life around through Crossroads Ministries, a nonprofit women’s reentry center she entered in 2021, and Musee. Her boss Leisha Pickering who drove her to court and spoke as a witness on Sloan’s behalf, thought the judge would order house arrest or time served. 

Circuit Judge James “Jim” Kitchens of the 16th District.

Instead, Circuit Judge James Kitchens sentenced her to eight years with four years suspended and probation. 

He seemed doubtful about her transformation, saying she didn’t have a “contrite heart.” By choosing to sell drugs, Kitchens said she was “(making) other people addicts,” according to a transcript of the Dec. 4, 2023, hearing. 

“I felt like my life literally crumbled before my eyes,” Sloan said about her return to prison. “Everything I had worked so hard for, it felt like it had been snatched from me.”

She was taken from the courtroom to the Lowndes County Detention Center, where she spent two months before her transfer to the women’s prison in Rankin County. 

Sloan found the county jail more difficult because there was no separation between everyone there. But the prison had its own challenges, such as violence between inmates and access to drugs, which would have threatened her sobriety. 

She kept busy by taking classes, which helped her set a goal to take college courses one day with a focus on business. Visits, phone calls and letters from family members and staff from Musee and Crossroads were her lifeline. 

“I did not let prison break me, I rose above it, and I got to help restore other ladies,” Sloan said. 

She also helped several women in the prison get to Crossroads – the same program that helped her and others at Musee. 

Sloan credits a long-term commitment to Crossroads and Musee for turning her life around – the places where she said someone believed in her and took a chance on her. 

Georgia Sloan, left, and Leisha Pickering, founder and CEO of Musee Bath, sit for a portrait at the Musee Bath facility in Canton, Miss., on Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2024. Pickering has supported Sloan through her journey of recovery and reentry, providing employment and advocacy as Sloan rebuilds her life after incarceration. Credit: Eric Shelton/Mississippi Today

Pickering, Musee’s CEO, said in the three years she’s known Sloan, she’s watched her grow and become a light for others. 

The bath and lifestyle company has employed over 300 formerly incarcerated women in the past dozen years, but Pickering said not everyone has had the same support, advocacy and transformation as Sloan. Regardless, Pickering believes each person is worth fighting for. 

When Sloan isn’t traveling for work to craft markets with Pickering, she shares an office with her Musee colleague Julie Crutcher, who is also formerly incarcerated and a graduate of Crossroads’ programs. She also considers Crutcher a close friend and mentor.

Sloan has traveled to Columbus to see her mother and daughter whom she spent Thanksgiving with. She will see them again for Christmas and celebrate her daughter’s 12th birthday the day after.

Her involvement with the criminal justice system has made Sloan want to advocate for prison reform to help others and be an inspiration to others.

“I never knew what I was capable of,” Sloan said.  “I never knew how much people truly, genuinely love me and love being around me. I never knew how much I could have and how much I could offer the world.”

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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