SUMMARY: Good morning! It’s the first day of fall, but temperatures will remain near 90 degrees today. In the tropics, we’re tracking a low-pressure system expected to develop over the Northwestern Caribbean, moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico midweek. It has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm, but current models are inconsistent due to the lack of a defined center. Residents from Southeastern Louisiana to Florida should monitor this system. Timing suggests impacts could occur from Thursday to Saturday. Meanwhile, enjoy the clear skies and warm beach weather as we stay above average through Tuesday.

The western Caribbean Sea will be an area to closely watch this week as global models point to the potential for tropical development. We are also watching a couple of other areas in the central and eastern Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring the northwestern Caribbean. An area of low pressure will develop in this region in the next day or two. Once this happens, there is a high chance that this system becomes a tropical system as it moves into the southern Gulf midweek.

WHAT WE KNOW:

We continue to track a low pressure that is expected to form in the NW Caribbean in the next day or two.

From there (Tues-Thurs timeframe), this low pressure is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico where it has a HIGH CHANCE of becoming a tropical system.

As this system enters the Gulf, no matter what it becomes, we WILL AT LEAST SEE surf increasing towards the end of the week.

Anyone in LA, MS, AL and FL need to monitor this closely. Possible tropical impacts would be Thurs-Sat…Exactly where these occur is still in question.

WHAT IS STILL UNCERTAIN:

Exact track. The low pressure has not even formed yet, much less a tropical system. Because models do not have anything to latch on to, they are ALL over the place unfortunately. Do not focus on one model or one run…It will change drastically. Also, the steering currents are VERY complex and will change.

Impacts for our area…We KNOW we will see rough surf, but exact impacts will depend on the ultimate track.

Timing…Broad timing looks to be Thurs-Sat as far as impacts go. Exactly where these occur is still in question.

Intensity – Depends on ultimate track and how it interacts with our systems steering it.

WHAT TO DO:

Have your kit and plan ready to go just in case.

Stay tuned to WKRG. We will continue to keep you updated.

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SUMMARY: World War II veteran Harold Hugh Hold celebrated his 100th birthday in Hazel Green today. Harold, who served in France during the war, was honored at a special event where he inspired hope in action. Local photographer Ben Smith documented the celebration with photos. Notably, Harold remains active and still cuts the grass at his home, showcasing his remarkable vitality at such an impressive age.

A special person celebrated a birthday today.

News 19 is North Alabama’s News Leader! We are the CBS affiliate in North Alabama and the Tennessee Valley since November 28, 1963.

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SUMMARY: The tropics are active, with a focus on a potential system in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, showing a high chance of formation in the coming days. While it is currently a broad area of low pressure, its exact path and strength remain uncertain. Forecast models suggest it may move towards Louisiana and the Florida Keys, but discrepancies exist. For now, the region enjoys quiet radar conditions and pleasant weather, with temperatures in the 80s and a low risk at beaches. High pressure will keep conditions enjoyable through the weekend, with possible changes mid-week as rain chances increase.

Thanks to high pressure in place, rain chances will stay slim to none across the News 5 area. We got quite warm this afternoon with highs pushing into the low- to mid-90’s. Rip current risk will remain low throughout the end of the weekend and into the start of next week. With high pressure staying in control through Monday, we will start the fall season with mostly clear skies with highs in the low-90’s for Sunday and Monday. As southwesterly flow increases aloft into Tuesday and the middle of the week, moisture will increase allowing for more chances for isolated showers and storms. A front will also be to our north and west by Thursday and will pass through the area late Thursday into Friday. The end of next week will also be determined by developments in the tropics. In the tropics we are tracking three areas. Two of them are in the central tropical Atlantic, and one has a low chance of formation and will likely stay away from the Gulf. The other is one we will have to watch closely over the next several days as it has a medium chance for formation. These do not pose an immediate threat to the News 5 area. Another is in the western Caribbean and in the southern Gulf. The Central American Gyre, a broad area of low pressure, is expected to form a smaller area of low pressure in part of the Caribbean or in the southern Gulf by the middle of next week. It is uncertain where exactly it will develop, how strong it will get, and the exact track. Once it develops, we will have a better idea of where this system will move. For now, make sure you have a tropical plan and stay updated with all the latest here on WKRG.

The WKRG News 5 First Alert Storm Team covers part of southeast Mississippi, southwestern Alabama, and northwest Florida. You can also view the full Saturday evening forecast for the Gulf Coast here: https://tinyurl.com/5dp9smer
Follow Meteorologist Grant Skinner on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/wkrggrant

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