SUMMARY: Tropical Storm Raphael has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, with winds at 45 mph. Conditions in the Gulf in November are less favorable for intensification compared to peak hurricane season, leading to expectations of weakening as the storm progresses. It is currently improving organization as it moves towards Western Cuba, where it may strengthen briefly. The future track of the storm remains uncertain, with models suggesting differing paths towards the Gulf Coast. However, strong wind shear and dry air conditions are anticipated to hinder further intensification, possibly resulting in rapid weakening before landfall.

WWL Louisiana Chief Meteorologist Chris Franklin is tracking the tropics with the latest on Tropical Storm Rafael for News at 5PM on Monday, Nov. 4, 2024.

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SUMMARY: Tropical Storm Raphael has formed and is gaining strength, with forecasts indicating it could become a hurricane before reaching Jamaica and Western Cuba. Meteorologists believe the storm’s path may lead it toward Louisiana, but there’s uncertainty about its organization as it approaches the Gulf of Mexico due to adverse conditions like dry air and cooler waters. Chief meteorologist Chris Franklin noted that, unlike in peak hurricane season, the risk to land appears limited as the storm may weaken significantly before making landfall. More updates on the storm’s trajectory and local weather expectations will follow.

WWL Louisiana Chief Meteorologist with a first look at recently upgraded Tropical Storm Rafael on News at 5PM on Monday, Nov. 4, 2024.

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SUMMARY: A tropical depression is currently forming in the Caribbean and may strengthen into a tropical storm, Raphael, as it approaches Cuba and later the Gulf of Mexico. While conditions will be less favorable in the Gulf, the storm is expected to weaken significantly by the end of the week due to drier air, cooler temperatures, and increased wind shear. Rainfall in the New Orleans area could total around one to two inches, bringing much-needed precipitation after a dry spell. Residents are advised to stay updated, as forecasts may change. Overall, there is no immediate concern.

The forecast this week includes a lot to talk about, with daily chances for rain and a developing hurricane heading into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

First, we start our week off warm and humid, with a few showers around each day. If you’re heading to vote on Tuesday, make sure you have an umbrella just in case you run into a shower.

For the rest of the week, we’ll be watching The Tropics. A developing storm is moving through the Caribbean Monday morning. The system, likely to get the name Rafael, will move toward Cuba by Wednesday as a hurricane. The storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico around Wednesday, likely as a hurricane. Luckily it’s November, so we do think the storm will begin to weaken as it moves north in the Gulf. This is thanks to dry air, stronger wind shear, and cooler ocean temperatures.

The current track does bring the storm near Louisiana and Mississippi Friday into Saturday, but there remains a lot of uncertainty on how strong the storm will be once it nears the northern Gulf. If it weakens fast enough, there might not be much left of it that can have an impact. Based on the current forecast, our concern level remains very low, although we could see some rain and stronger winds. Follow the forecast closely through the week to see if there are any big changes.

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