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Space travel comes with risk − and SpaceX’s Polaris Dawn mission will push the envelope further than any private mission has before

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theconversation.com – Chris Impey, Distinguished Professor of Astronomy, University of Arizona – 2024-09-06 07:30:06

Spacewalks are among the more dangerous activities associated with human spaceflight.

Ignatiev/E+ via Getty Images

Chris Impey, University of Arizona

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Space is an unnatural environment for humans. We can’t survive unprotected in a pure vacuum for more than two minutes. Getting to space involves being strapped to a barely contained chemical explosion.

Since 1961, fewer than 700 people have been into space. Private space companies such as SpaceX and Blue Origin hope to boost that number to many thousands, and SpaceX is already taking bookings for flights to Earth orbit.

I’m an astronomer who has written extensively about space travel, including a book about our future off-Earth. I think a lot about the risks and rewards of exploring space.

As the commercial space industry takes off, there will be accidents and people will die. Polaris Dawn, planned to launch early in September 2024, will be a high-risk mission using only civilian astronauts. So, now is a good time to assess the risks and rewards of leaving the Earth.

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Space travel is dangerous

Most Americans vividly recall the disasters that led to the loss of 14 astronauts’ lives. Two of the five space shuttles disintegrated, Challenger in 1986 soon after launch and Columbia in 2003 on reentry.

The Challenger and Columbia accidents are two of the most prominent examples of the risk that with human spaceflight.

In total, 30 astronauts and cosmonauts have died while training for or during space missions.

There have also been dozens of close calls. Two astronauts are currently staying on the International Space Station for an extra six months because NASA declared their Boeing Starliner vehicle unsafe for the return journey. Starliner has had many problems during its development, flammable tape, stuck valves and inadequate parachute . But a critical thruster malfunction is what caused NASA to abandon it as a return vehicle.

It’s not always safe on the ground, either. In addition to the three Apollo 1 astronauts who died in a 1967 launch pad fire, about 120 people died in the launchpad explosion of an unmanned rocket in Russia in 1960, and hundreds died in 1996 when a Chinese rocket veered off course and crashed into a nearby village.

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The fatality rate of people traveling in space is about 3%. That sounds low, but it’s higher than extreme sports such as BASE jumping or jumping off a cliff wearing a wingsuit. The only recreations that rival the risk of space travel are solo -climbing and climbing above 19,685 feet (6,000 meters) in the Himalayas.

Civilians in space

The 2020s have kicked off the era of civilian astronauts. After the death of Christa McAuliffe in the Challenger disaster, NASA stopped sending civilians into space. But for commercial space companies, it’s part of the business model.

The first all-civilian crew to reach orbit rode a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft in 2021, the Inspiration 4 mission. Since 2020, 69 private astronauts have gone to space, although only 46 reached the Kármán line – the formal definition of the edge of space.

The commercial space industry’s safety record is not perfect. No civilian has died in space, but one pilot died and another was seriously injured in a test flight of Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo craft in 2014. This accident followed three deaths and three injuries in an explosion during a prelaunch test of the SpaceShipTwo rocket in 2007.

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SpaceX, the largest commercial space company with 13,000 employees and a market value of US$180 billion, has seen no fatalities in flight, but it has recorded one death and hundreds of injuries in the workplace.

The Polaris Dawn mission was planned to launch Aug. 27, 2024, though a helium leak and bad weather has delayed it. It will push the envelope of risk for civilians in space. This SpaceX flight will reach an altitude of 435 miles (700 kilometers), higher than any astronauts since Apollo.

Four astronauts wearing white suits and helmets stand in front of a rocket on a launchpad.

The Polaris Dawn crew during their launch-day rehearsal.

Polaris Program/John Kraus, CC BY-NC-ND

The Polaris Dawn’s four-person civilian crew will receive a hefty dose of radiation, getting as much in a few hours as they would in 20 years on the Earth. NASA is doing research to understand the extent of the health risks from radiation.

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The mission will also include a spacewalk – the first for nongovernment astronauts. It will use spacesuits never tested in space. Since the spacecraft they’re using – the SpaceX Dragon – has no airlock, the inside of the capsule will be exposed to the vacuum of space, with all the crew members wearing spacesuits.

Russian cosmonaut Alexei Leonov nearly died during the first spacewalk in 1965, and other spacewalks have led to temporary blindness, near drowning and nearly being lost in space forever. A spacesuit is like a miniature spacecraft, and it has to withstand rapid temperature changes of hundreds of degrees when moving in and out of direct sunlight. Even a small tear or puncture can be fatal.

But while space travel comes with dangers, it also has rewards. Since Polaris Dawn will travel higher than any previous mission that did not go to the Moon, the crew will be able to do research on high-radiation environments. They will investigate the effects of spaceflight on the human body and evaluate how future deep-space travelers might diagnose and treat themselves.

A less tangible but potentially profound benefit is the overview effect – many astronauts a feeling of awe from experiencing the Earth from space.

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Space boom

Space is booming – hopefully just metaphorically and not literally. SpaceX makes money by launching Starlink satellites and ferrying supplies and people to the International Space Station, with estimated revenues of $15 billion this year. Blue Origin sells rocket engines and has contracts with NASA.

Both companies sell rides into space to high-net-worth individuals, but that’s a small fraction of their revenues. Space tourism is not available to the masses yet. Virgin Galactic offers a short, suborbital ride for $450,000, but getting to Earth orbit will cost you $55 million.

The space tourism market was $750 million in 2023, and that’s projected to grow to $5.2 billion over the next decade. Reusable rockets have made the cost of launching a spacecraft 10 times cheaper than it was a decade ago.

For space to take off with a demographic broader than multimillionaires and thrill-seekers, it needs to be safe – both in perception and in reality. Many space entrepreneurs expect space travel to follow aviation’s arc, which also started by attracting rich people and thrill-seekers.

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Since 1930, improvements in technology and safety features have lowered the number of fatal accidents in the aviation industry per million miles flown by a factor of 3,000. A more realistic target may be to make space travel as safe as driving. That’s a more lenient target, since driving is more dangerous than flying. Your annual odds of dying in a car crash are 1 in 5,000, compared with annual odds of 1 in 11 million of dying in a plane crash.

In the United States, the has kept regulations light on the commercial space industry to encourage entrepreneurs.

Elon Musk’s dreams of millions of passengers and a on Mars may not become reality. But if the cost of a jaunt to Earth’s orbit comes down to the cost of a high-end cruise, many people could experience the thrill of weightlessness and of seeing the Earth as a beautiful planet from above.The Conversation

Chris Impey, University Distinguished Professor of Astronomy, University of Arizona

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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The Conversation

a double shot of US history

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theconversation.com – Kyle G. Volk, Professor of History, of Montana – 2024-09-16 07:28:46

Having a beer in Raceland, La.

Russell Lee for Farm Security Administration/WPA

Kyle G. Volk, University of Montana

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Text saying: Uncommon Courses, from The Conversation

Uncommon Courses is an occasional series from U.S. highlighting unconventional approaches to teaching.

Title of course:

“Intoxication Nation: Alcohol in American History”

What prompted the idea for the course?

I wanted to get excited about studying the past by learning about something that is very much a part of their own lives.

Alcohol – somewhat surprisingly to me at first – featured prominently in my own research on minority rights and U.S. democracy in the mid-19th century. As a result, I knew quite a bit about the temperance movement and conflicts over prohibition during that period. Designing this course me to broaden my expertise.

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What does the course explore?

Prohibition is a must-do subject. Students expect it. But I cover several hundred years of history: from the 17th-century invention of rum – as a byproduct of sugar produced by enslaved people – to the rise of craft beer and craft spirits in the 21st century.

A faded poster with an illustration of a person about to smash a huge bottle of alcohol, and the message 'Close the saloons' at the top.

A temperance poster from the World War I era.

Office of Naval Records and Library via National Archives Catalog

Along the way, I’m thrilled when students get excited about details that allow them to a more complicated historical cocktail. For example, they learn why white women’s production of hard cider was crucial to the survival of colonial Virginia. The short answer: Potable water was in short supply, alcoholic drinks were far healthier, and white – and their indentured and enslaved workforce – were busy raising tobacco. It fell to women to turn fruit into salvation.

Why is this course relevant now?

Alcohol remains a big and almost inescapable part of American society. But of late, Americans have been drinking differently – and thinking about drinking differently.

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Examples abound. Alcohol producers, we learn, now face competition from legalized weed. Drinking l evels rose during the COVID-19 pandemic, yet interest is declining among Gen Zers. The “wine mom” culture that brought some mothers together now faces mounting criticism.

And, of course, there’s the never-ending debate about the health benefits and risks of alcohol. Of late, the risks seem to be dominating headlines.

What’s a critical lesson from the course?

Alcohol has been a highly controversial, central aspect of the American experience, shaping virtually all sectors of our society – political and constitutional, business and economic, social and cultural.

What materials does the course feature?

What will the course prepare students to do?

Like any history course, this one aims to develop student’s analytical, written, research and verbal skills. In lots of ways, the topic is just a tool to get students to grow their brains. But I also seek to grow students’ critical awareness of the place of alcohol in their own lives. The course has also informed students’ paths after graduation – including some who wound up working in the alcohol industry or recovery .The Conversation

Kyle G. Volk, Professor of History, University of Montana

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The Conversation

Sunflowers make small moves to maximize their Sun exposure − physicists can model them to predict how they grow

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theconversation.com – Chantal Nguyen, Postdoctoral Associate at the BioFrontiers Institute, of Colorado Boulder – 2024-09-13 07:31:40

Sunflowers use tiny movements to follow the Sun’s path throughout the day.

AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

Chantal Nguyen, University of Colorado Boulder

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Most of us aren’t spending our days watching our houseplants grow. We see their signs of only occasionally – a new leaf unfurled, a stem leaning toward the window.

But in the summer of 1863, Charles Darwin lay ill in bed, with nothing to do but watch his plants so closely that he could detect their small movements to and fro. The tendrils from his cucumber plants swept in circles until they encountered a stick, which they proceeded to twine around.

“I am getting very much amused by my tendrils,” he wrote.

This amusement blossomed into a decadeslong fascination with the little-noticed world of plant movements. He compiled his detailed observations and experiments in a 1880 book called “The Power of Movement in Plants.”

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A zig-zagging line showing the movement of a leaf.

A diagram tracking the circumnutation of a leaf over three days.

Charles Darwin

In one study, he traced the motion of a carnation leaf every few hours over the course of three days, revealing an irregular looping, jagged path. The swoops of cucumber tendrils and the zags of carnation leaves are examples of inherent, ubiquitous plant movements called circumnutations – from the Latin circum, meaning circle, and nutare, meaning to nod.

Circumnutations vary in size, regularity and timescale across plant species. But their exact function remains unclear.

I’m a physicist interested in understanding collective behavior in living . Like Darwin, I’m captivated by circumnutations, since they may underlie more complex phenomena in groups of plants.

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Sunflower patterns

A 2017 study revealed a fascinating observation that got my colleagues and me wondering about the role circumnutations could play in plant growth patterns. In this study, researchers found that sunflowers grown in a dense row naturally formed a near-perfect zigzag pattern, with each plant leaning away from the row in alternating directions.

This pattern the plants to avoid shade from their neighbors and maximize their exposure to sunlight. These sunflowers flourished.

Researchers then planted some plants at the same density but constrained them so that they could grow only upright without leaning. These constrained plants produced less oil than the plants that could lean and get the maximum amount of sun.

While farmers can’t grow their sunflowers quite this close together due to the potential for disease spread, in the future they may be able to use these patterns to up with new planting strategies.

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Self-organization and randomness

This spontaneous pattern formation is a neat example of self-organization in nature. Self-organization refers to when initially disordered systems, such as a jungle of plants or a swarm of bees, achieve order without anything controlling them. Order emerges from the interactions between individual members of the system and their interactions with the .

Somewhat counterintuitively, noise – also called randomness – facilitates self-organization. Consider a colony of ants.

Ants secrete pheromones behind them as they crawl toward a food source. Other ants find this food source by the pheromone trails, and they further reinforce the trail they took by secreting their own pheromones in turn. Over time, the ants converge on the best path to the food, and a single trail prevails.

But if a shorter path were to become possible, the ants would not necessarily find this path just by following the existing trail.

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If a few ants were to randomly deviate from the trail, though, they might stumble onto the shorter path and create a new trail. So this randomness injects a spontaneous change into the ants’ system that allows them to explore alternative scenarios.

Eventually, more ants would follow the new trail, and soon the shorter path would prevail. This randomness helps the ants adapt to changes in the environment, as a few ants spontaneously seek out more direct ways to their food source.

A group of honeybees spread out standing on honeycomb.

Beehives are an example of self-organization in nature.

Martin Ruegner/Stone via Getty Images

In biology, self-organized systems can be found at a range of scales, from the patterns of proteins inside cells to the socially complex colonies of honeybees that collectively build nests and forage for nectar.

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Randomness in sunflower self-organization

So, could random, irregular circumnutations underpin the sunflowers’ self-organization?

My colleagues and I set out to explore this question by following the growth of young sunflowers we planted in the lab. Using cameras that imaged the plants every five minutes, we tracked the movement of the plants to see their circumnutatory paths.

We saw some loops and spirals, and lots of jagged movements. These ultimately appeared largely random, much like Darwin’s carnation. But when we placed the plants together in rows, they began to move away from one another, forming the same zigzag configurations that we’d seen in the previous study.

Five plants and a diagram showing loops and jagged lines that represent small movements made by the plants.

Tracking the circumnutations made by young sunflower plants.

Chantal Nguyen

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We analyzed the plants’ circumnutations and found that at any given time, the direction of the plant’s motion appeared completely independent of how it was moving about half an hour earlier. If you measured a plant’s motion once every 30 minutes, it would appear to be moving in a completely random way.

We also measured how much the plant’s leaves grew over the course of two weeks. By putting all of these results together, we sketched a picture of how a plant moved and grew on its own. This information allowed us to computationally model a sunflower and simulate how it behaves over the course of its growth.

A sunflower model

We modeled each plant simply as a circular crown on a stem, with the crown expanding according to the growth rate we measured experimentally. The simulated plant moved in a completely random way, taking a “step” every half hour.

We created the model sunflowers with circumnutations of lower or higher intensity by tweaking the step sizes. At one end of the spectrum, sunflowers were much more likely to take tiny steps than big ones, leading to slow, minimal movement on average. At the other end were sunflowers that are equally as likely to take large steps as small steps, resulting in highly irregular movement. The real sunflowers we observed in our experiment were somewhere in the middle.

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Plants require light to grow and have evolved the ability to detect shade and alter the direction of their growth in response.

We wanted our model sunflowers to do the same thing. So, we made it so that two plants that get too close to each other’s shade begin to lean away in opposite directions.

Finally, we wanted to see whether we could replicate the zigzag pattern we’d observed with the real sunflowers in our model.

First, we set the model sunflowers to make small circumnutations. Their shade avoidance responses pushed them away from each other, but that wasn’t enough to produce the zigzag – the model plants stayed stuck in a line. In physics, we would call this a “frustrated” system.

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Then, we set the plants to make large circumnutations. The plants started moving in random patterns that often brought the plants closer together rather than farther apart. Again, no zigzag pattern like we’d seen in the field.

But when we set the model plants to make moderately large movements, similar to our experimental measurements, the plants could self-organize into a zigzag pattern that gave each sunflower optimal exposure to light.

So, we showed that these random, irregular movements helped the plants explore their surroundings to find desirable arrangements that benefited their growth.

Plants are much more dynamic than people give them credit for. By taking the time to follow them, scientists and farmers can unlock their secrets and use plants’ movement to their advantage.The Conversation

Chantal Nguyen, Postdoctoral Associate at the BioFrontiers Institute, University of Colorado Boulder

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Endometriosis pain leads to missed school and work in two-thirds of women with the condition, new study finds

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theconversation.com – Rasha Al-Lami, Researcher in Women’s , Yale University – 2024-09-13 07:30:43

Endometriosis affects about 10% of reproductive-age women worldwide.

Xavier Lorenzo/Moment via Getty Images

Rasha Al-Lami, Yale University

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More than two-thirds of women with endometriosis missed school or work due to pain from the , in a study of more than 17,000 women between the ages of 15 and 44 in the U.S. That is a key finding of new research published in the Journal of Endometriosis and Uterine Disorders.

Our study also found that Black and Hispanic women were less likely to be diagnosed with endometriosis with white women. Interestingly, women who identified as part of the LGBTQ community had a higher likelihood of receiving an endometriosis diagnosis than heterosexual women.

We used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, which is administered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, for the period 2011 to 2019. The survey data use adjusted weights to account for the racial composition of U.S. society, meaning our sample of 17,619 women represents 51,981,323 women of the U.S. population.

We specifically examined factors related to quality of life, such as poverty, education and functional impairment, as well as race and sexual orientation.

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I am a physician-scientist and a researcher in women’s health, working together with specialists in OB-GYN from Yale and the University of .

Why it matters

Endometriosis is a chronic, often painful condition that affects approximately 10% of reproductive-age women worldwide. It occurs when tissues that would normally line the inner surface of the uterus instead occur outside the uterus, such as on the ovaries or even in distant organs such as the lungs or brain. These abnormally located lesions respond to hormonal changes during the menstrual cycle, causing pain when stimulated by the hormones that regulate the menstrual cycle.

Our study sheds light on how endometriosis, despite its prevalence, remains underdiagnosed and underresearched. We found that 6.4% of reproductive-age women in the U.S. had an endometriosis diagnosis. More than 67% reported missed work or school, or been unable to perform activities, due to pain associated with endometriosis.

Our study highlights disparities in the diagnosis and management of endometriosis among different racial groups. Black women had 63% lower odds of getting an endometriosis diagnosis, and Hispanic women had 55% lower odds compared with non-Hispanic white women. This disparity may reflect historical biases in health care, pointing to the need for more equitable practices.

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In addition, our study underscores the importance of considering women’s health across diverse population subgroups, with particular attention to sexual orientation. We found that non-heterosexual lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer women had 54% higher odds of receiving an endometriosis diagnosis compared with straight women. Our study was the first to examine endometriosis likelihood among non-heterosexual women at the national level in the U.S.

We found no significant association between endometriosis and other quality-of-life indicators such as poverty, education or employment status, which suggests that the condition affects women across various socioeconomic backgrounds.

A common theory about the cause of endometriosis is that women have menstrual blood that seeds outside of the uterus, but recent research supports inflammatory causes.

What other research is being done

Our work adds to the growing body of evidence that Black women are less likely to be diagnosed with endometriosis and that their reported pain symptoms are often overlooked.

Explanations for this inequity include health care bias against minority women and limited access to medical care among Black women. Research also shows that many medical professionals as well as medical and believe that Black women have a lower pain threshold compared with the white population.

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This is another possible reason that pain symptoms among Black women with endometriosis get neglected. Researchers from the U.K reported the same findings, attributing these disparities to systemic bias and inequitable medical care.

Another study estimates that the lifetime costs associated with having endometriosis are about US$27,855 per year per patient in the U.S., costing the country about $22 annually on health care expenditures.The Conversation

Rasha Al-Lami, Researcher in Women’s Health, Yale University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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