Mississippi Today
Should Tate Reeves be concerned about Republican voter enthusiasm?
Welcome to The Homestretch, a daily blog featuring the most comprehensive coverage of the 2023 Mississippi governor’s race. This page, curated by the Mississippi Today politics team, will feature the biggest storylines of the 2023 governor’s race at 7 a.m. every day between now and the Nov. 7 election.
Longtime Republican politico Henry Barbour, about a month ago in a radio interview, might as well have lit a fuse tied to the backsides of every political operative in Mississippi.
โThe way we end up with a liberal governor is that Republicans assume we win,โ Barbour told radio host Paul Gallo on Sept. 14. โI’m talking to you on the Gulf Coast of Mississippi โฆ We’ve got to run the score up down there because there are going to be other parts of the state, like the Delta, where Brandon Presley is gonna run the score up.โ
Barbour, the nephew of a founding father of the modern Republican Party and a well-connected lobbyist who certainly knows a thing or two about what it takes to win a governor’s race, continued.
โSo we need big turnout, we need people to get fired up, to lean on their neighbors and friends. The best way to get someone to vote is not a TV ad or a radio ad, heaven forbid. It’s peer to peer, it’s talking to somebody they know like their neighbor and encouraging them that hey, we’ve got to run because this is important. It’s about the future of our state and our children.โ
The speculation Barbour’s comment stirred in mid-September among the Jackson political class was loud and sustained, but the consensus among them: Reeves, facing at least a decent challenge from Democrat Brandon Presley, might not have this governor’s race wrapped in a bow like his allies had been projecting for months.
If Reeves struggles on Nov. 7, it’ll almost certainly be because, in large part, Republican voters weren’t excited about heading to the polls. That shouldn’t necessarily read as support for Presley or for his positions, but the Democrat sure could benefit from lackluster turnout in GOP strongholds โ and especially in the three Gulf Coast counties.
Another longtime GOP operative put it this way this week: โI can’t remember a statewide election cycle when a Republican had a tough challenge and so few Republican voters seemed to care.โ
So why the dull feelings for Republican voters this go-round? Well, it’s not just this go-round for Reeves. To put it bluntly, it might just be that voters don’t like him all that much.
For three-plus years, Reeves has polled as one of the most unpopular governors in the nation. He got just 51.9% of the vote in 2019 in ruby red Mississippi against Democratic challenger Jim Hood. For reference, Republican President Donald Trump earned 57.6% in Mississippi the very next year. For even further reference, former Republican Gov. Phil Bryant earned 61% of the vote against Democrat Johnny Dupree in 2011 and 66% against Democrat Robert Gray in 2015.
As Mississippi Today’s Geoff Pender and Taylor Vance have reported, Reeves has been sharply criticized in his first term by both the political left and the political right. Here’s what two of Mississippi’s most prominent far right conservatives have said about Reeves’ 2023 candidacy in recent days:
- Chris McDaniel, the state senator who unsuccessfully ran three times for statewide or federal office: โThere is an overall unease about everything. There’s some dissatisfaction out there, but not necessarily with (Reeves) but just the political climate โฆ There is a chance that could equate to lower turnout (of conservative voters). Low turnout would be trouble for everyone. Our models are usually based on having good turnout.โ
- Robert Foster, who unsuccessfully ran against Reeves in 2019: โWhile most conservative Christians I know have forgiven (Reeves) for his emotional rather than rational actions during the COVID hysteria, we haven’t forgotten how he mishandled it. He issued many unconstitutional mandates and gave tiny tyrants all over the state unbridled power, and they abused it. They used it to hurt small businesses. They used it to hurt our elderly in nursing homes and our helpless children in schools and daycares. They even used it to close churches for a short time. I for one think a public apology is not only due but possibly necessary for many to consider voting for him to be our governor again and not skipping the race altogether on the ballot in November.”
Presley would argue that low potential GOP turnout on Election Day is not just about Tate’s general likability on the right. The Democratic nominee has spent millions pointing out Reeves’ ties to the very well-known welfare scandal, Reeves’ inaction on the very well-known hospital crisis, and Reeves’ refusal to expand Medicaid to provide at least 200,000 working poor Mississippians with health care. All three of those issues have polled off the charts in Presley’s favor this year.
Meanwhile, Presley is getting what appears to be unprecedented support from Black Democrats across the state. Much will be written about this in the coming days, but Black voters are the base of the Mississippi Democratic Party, period.
If the recent coordinated work of Black political leaders, pastors and community activists produces the results they’re hoping, and Republicans stay home for whatever reason, the evening of Nov. 7 might be a long one for Reeves.
Headlines From The Trail
It’s official: Democrat Brandon Presley fulfills promise to campaign in all 82 counties
Proceed with caution on what 2023 races tell us
Gov. Reeves tours Jones College, talks health care
Fact check: Did Gov. Reeves keep Mississippi โopen for business’ during pandemic?
$44 million approved for 15 RESTORE Act projects in Mississippi
Port Gibson benefits from Delta Regional Authority’s new investments
What We’re Watching
1) Regarding that potential Gulf Coast problem: Reeves on Thursday announced funding for 15 new projects for the Gulf Coast. Reeves’ administration manages a huge pot of federal settlement funds the state received after the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill gutted the Gulf Coast. And in his first term as governor, he has doled out hundreds of millions of dollars for specific Coast projects. It should be noted that any governor would have the power to do this, and Coast-based projects have to receive the funding. But Reeves has masterfully played these “look what I’m doing for the Coast” cards many, many times over the past few years, and it undoubtedly helps him with everyday Coast voters.
2) What’s the extent of runoff preparations being made by the campaigns? Click this link to read about the potential runoff and how it’s being discussed currently, but having to prepare for a runoff while in the homestretch could certainly be a huge distraction for already stretched-thin campaign teams.
3) What about debate prep? Reeves may take the strategy of setting low expectations. In his Neshoba County Fair speech in late July, he actually directly took a self-deprecating approach about his less-than-stellar public speaking skills. Presley, on the other hand, is known in political circles as an effective communicator. How much might debate prep time ahead of the Nov. 1 throw-down on live TV keep the candidates off the trail?
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
Senate panel weighs how much โ or whether โ to cut state taxes
A group of state senators on Monday grappled with how much to slash state taxes or if they should cut them at all, portending a major policy debate at the Capitol for next year’s legislative session.
The Senate Fiscal Policy Study Group solicited testimony from the state government‘s leading experts on budget, economic and tax policies to prepare for an almost certain intense debate in January over how much they should trim state taxes while balancing the need to fund government services.ย
Senate Finance Chairman Josh Harkins, a Republican from Flowood whose committee has jurisdiction over tax policy, told Mississippi Today that he wanted senators to have basic facts in front of them before they help decide next year if Mississippi should cut taxes.
โWe’re getting a tax cut the next two years whether we do anything or not,โ Harkins said. โI just want to make sure we have all the facts in front of people to understand we have a clear picture of how much revenue we’re bringing in.โ
Mississippi is already phasing in a major tax cut. After a raucous debate in 2022, lawmakers agreed to phase in an income tax cut. In two years it will leave Mississippi with a flat 4% tax on income over $10,000, one of the lowest rates in the nation.
However, the top two legislative leaders, Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann who oversees the Senate and House Speaker Jason White, have both recently said they want legislators to consider new tax cut policies.
Hosemann, the Republican leader of the Senate, has publicly said he would like to see the state’s grocery tax, the highest of its kind in the nation, reduced, though he hasn’t specified how much of a reduction or how long it would take for the cut to be implemented.
White, a Republican from West, said last week that he would like to see the state’s 4% income tax phased out and have the state’s 7% grocery tax cut in half over time.
โWe are hoping to construct a tax system that, yes, prioritizes certain needs in our state, but it also protects and rewards taxpayers,โ White said last week.
But it’s difficult to collect accurate data on the state’s grocery tax, and state lawmakers must grapple with a laundry list of spending needs and obligations based on testimony from state agency leaders on Monday.
Mississippi currently has a 7% sales tax, which is applied to groceries. The state collects the tax but remits 18.5% back to cities. For many municipalities, the sales tax is a significant source of revenue.
If state lawmakers want to reduce the grocery tax without impacting cities, they could pass a new law to change the diversion amounts or appropriate enough money to make the municipalities whole.
State Revenue Commissioner Chris Graham said the Mississippi Department of Revenue, the agency in charge of collecting state taxes, does not have a mechanism in place for accurately capturing how much money cities collect in grocery taxes. This is because the tax on groceries is the same as non-grocery items.
However, Graham estimates that the state collects roughly $540 million in taxes from grocery items.
The other problem lawmakers would have in implementing significant tax cuts is a growing list of spending needs in Mississippi, a state with abject poverty, water and sewer and other infrastructure woes and some of the worst health metrics in the nation.
Representatives from the Legislative Budget Office, the group that advises lawmakers on tax and spending policy, told senators that lawmakers will also be faced with rising costs in the public employee retirement system, the Medicaid budget, public education, state employee health insurance, and state infrastructure projects.
State agencies, including the employee retirement system, also requested $751 million more for the coming budget year.
โThat’s the billion dollar question, I guess,โ Senate Appropriations Chairman Briggs Hopson, a Republican from Vicksburg, said. โHow we’re able to fund basic government services?โ
Harkins and Hopson said the committee would likely meet again before the Legislature convenes for its 2025 session on January 7.
A House committee on tax cuts has also been holding hearings, and White in September held a summit on tax policy.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
Already dire lack of affordable housing for low-income Mississippians on verge of worsening
In Mississippi, where there’s already a dearth of 50,000 or more affordable homes for extremely low-income residents, that number could grow in the next five years.
Housing units available under the federal Low Income Tax Credit program could lose their affordability by 2030 โa number estimated nationwide to be 350,000 with 2,917 in Mississippi, alone; 496 in the state already have.
The federal program responsible for most of the nation’s affordable housing is expiring.
The Low Income Housing Tax Credit, introduced as part of the Tax Reform Act of 1986, provides for developers to buy, build and restore low-income housing units. Under the deal, the housing only needs to stay low-rent for 30 years. Construction began in the early 1990s.
Some LIHTC housing will remain affordable due to other subsidies, nonprofits, state law and individual landlords.
โI think the low-income housing tax credit has done everything that it can to address the need for affordable housing around the state,โ said Scott Spivey, executive director of the Mississippi Housing Corporation, a state office that administers the program and works with the state government and those in the affordable housing industry to create and support affordable housing
Spivey supports the proposed Affordable Housing Credit and Improvement Act, a federal bill that would expand upon the low-income housing tax credit in several ways, including giving developers more credit for certain projects for low-income households and changing tenant eligibility rules.
The bill was introduced in the House and the Senate last session, and is co-sponsored by Mississippi Sens. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Roger Wicker and in the House by Reps. Mike Ezell, and Michael Guest. As of this spring, both bills are in committee.
While housing has become a major issue for Americans, getting legislation passed has been challenging. โEverybody knows that housing is an issue, but it gets caught up with everything elseโฆand it kind of gets lost in the shuffle,โ said Spivey.
This issue is especially important in Mississippi, where demand for housing is high across all incomes.
โAll the market studies that we see that come with the applications tell us that there’s a huge need for affordable housing across the state at all the income bandsโ said Spivey.
According to the National Low Income Housing Coalition, almost a third of Mississippi renters are extremely low income; 65% of them are severely cost burdened, meaning they spent more than half their income on rent. The majority of these households are seniors, disabled people, single caregivers of young children, people enrolled in school, or other.
Director of Housing Law at the Mississippi Center for Justice, Ashley Richardson said housing problems worsened after Mississippi stopped participating in the federal rental assistance program in 2022.
MCJ’s work on housing includes a statewide eviction hotline, investigating instances of housing discrimination, and more.
Richardson praised the LIHTC program, but echoed Spivey’s concerns. โEven with the affordable housing we do have in Mississippi, we are still at a lack,โ she said.
The National Housing Preservation Database estimates Mississippi is short 52,421 affordable and available rental homes for low-income people. The National Low Income Housing Coalition puts the figure at 49,478.
Richardson wants the state to deal with issues like providing more tenant protections and rental assistance. There’s also a need to improve homes that are rundown or in poor condition, and many housing nonprofits are running out of funding.
Spivey said people should talk to their property managers and learn about their rights. MHC’s website has resources for homebuyers and renters.
As the housing crisis goes on, there are options for people struggling to find and keep affordable housing and an effort to take action at the federal and state levels.
Some aspiring low-income homeowners may qualify for Habitat for Humanity, a program that builds homes for families in need. Families who qualify work on the homes alongside volunteers, pay an affordable mortgage and receive financial literacy education.
New applicants must meet the qualifications, including a good debt-income ratio, 125 hours of sweat equity and taking classes on financial literacy, home repairs, and being a good neighbor.
Merrill McKewen, executive director for Habitat for Humanity Mississippi Capital Area, emphasized the importance of housing to individuals and communities.
โThere are untold studies that have been done that, you’ve gotta have a safe, decent, affordable place to live. The children are better students, the parents are better employeesโฆit grounds you to a community that you can contribute to and be a part of. It is the American dream, to own a home, which is what we’re all about,โ she said.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
Mississippi Election 2024: What will be on Tuesdayโs ballot?
Mississippians will go to the polls on Tuesday, Nov. 5, to elect federal and state judicial posts and some local offices, such as for election commissioners and school board members.
Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Tuesday. To find your polling place, use the secretary of state’s locator, or call your local county circuit clerk.
READ MORE: View the Mississippi sample ballot.
The following is a list of the candidates for federal and judicial posts with brief bios:
President
- Kamala Harris, current vice president and Democratic nominee for president. Her running mate is Tim Walz.
- Donald Trump, former president and current Republican nominee. His running mate is J.D. Vance.
- Robert Kennedy Jr. remains on the ballot in Mississippi even though he has endorsed Trump. His running mate is Nicole Shanahan.
- Jill Stein is the Green Party candidate. Her running mate is Rudolph Ware.
- Five other candidates will be on the Mississippi ballot for president. For a complete list of presidential candidates, see the sample ballot.
U.S. Senate
- Ty Pinkins is the Democratic nominee. He is a Rolling Fork native and attorney, representing, among other clients, those alleging unfair working conditions. He served 21 years in the U.S. Army, including combat stints, other overseas deployment and posts in the White House,
- Roger Wicker is the Republican incumbent senator. He resides in Tupelo and has served in the U.S. Senate since late 2007 after first being appointed to fill a vacancy by then-Gov. Haley Barbour. He was elected to the post in 2008. He previously served in the U.S. House and as a state senator. He is an attorney and served in the United States Air Force.
House District 1
- Dianne Black is the Democratic nominee. She is a small business owner in Olive Branch in DeSoto County.
- Trent Kelly is the Republican incumbent. He was elected to the post in a special election in 2015. He previously served as a district attorney and before then as a prosecuting attorney for the city of Tupelo. He is a major general in the Mississippi Army National Guard.
House District 2
- Bennie Thompson is the Democratic incumbent. He was first elected to the post in 1993. Before then, he served as a Hinds County supervisor and as alderman and then as mayor of Bolton.
- Ronald Eller is the Republican nominee. He grew up in West Virginia and moved to central Mississippi after retiring from the military. He is a physician assistant and business owner.
House District 3
- Michael Guest is the Republican incumbent and is unopposed.
House District 4
- Mike Ezell is the Republican incumbent first being elected in 2022. He previously served as Jackson County sheriff.
- Craig Raybon is the Democratic nominee. Raybon is from Gulfport and began a nonprofit โfocused on helping out the community as a whole.โ
Central District Supreme Court
- Jenifer Branning currently serves as a member of the state Senate from Neshoba County.
- Byron Carter is a Hinds County attorney and previously served as a law clerk for Supreme Court Justice Armis Hawkins.
- James Kitchens is the incumbent. He has served on the state’s highest court since 2008.
- Ceola James previously served on the Court of Appeals.
- Abby Gale Robinson is a Jackson attorney. She previously was a commercial builder.
Southern District Supreme Court
- Dawn Beam is the incumbent, having been first appointed in 2016 by then-Gov. Phil Bryant and later winning election to the post. She is a former chancellor for the Hattiesburg area.
- David Sullivan is an attorney in Harrison County and has been a municipal judge in D’Iberville since 2019. His father, Michael, previously served on the state Supreme Court.
Northern District Supreme Court seats
- Robert Chamberlin of DeSoto County is unopposed.
- James Maxwell of Lafayette County is unopposed.
Court of Appeals 5th District seat
- Ian Baker is an assistant district attorney in Harrison County.
- Jennifer Schloegel is a Chancery Court judge for Harrison, Hancock and Stone counties.
- Amy St. Pe is a Municipal Court judge in Gautier.
Court of Appeals District 2
- Incumbent Latrice Westbrooks is unopposed.
Court of Appeals District 3
- Incumbent Jack Wilson is unopposed.ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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