SUMMARY: A tropical depression is currently forming in the Caribbean and may strengthen into a tropical storm, Raphael, as it approaches Cuba and later the Gulf of Mexico. While conditions will be less favorable in the Gulf, the storm is expected to weaken significantly by the end of the week due to drier air, cooler temperatures, and increased wind shear. Rainfall in the New Orleans area could total around one to two inches, bringing much-needed precipitation after a dry spell. Residents are advised to stay updated, as forecasts may change. Overall, there is no immediate concern.

The forecast this week includes a lot to talk about, with daily chances for rain and a developing hurricane heading into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

First, we start our week off warm and humid, with a few showers around each day. If you’re heading to vote on Tuesday, make sure you have an umbrella just in case you run into a shower.

For the rest of the week, we’ll be watching The Tropics. A developing storm is moving through the Caribbean Monday morning. The system, likely to get the name Rafael, will move toward Cuba by Wednesday as a hurricane. The storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico around Wednesday, likely as a hurricane. Luckily it’s November, so we do think the storm will begin to weaken as it moves north in the Gulf. This is thanks to dry air, stronger wind shear, and cooler ocean temperatures.

The current track does bring the storm near Louisiana and Mississippi Friday into Saturday, but there remains a lot of uncertainty on how strong the storm will be once it nears the northern Gulf. If it weakens fast enough, there might not be much left of it that can have an impact. Based on the current forecast, our concern level remains very low, although we could see some rain and stronger winds. Follow the forecast closely through the week to see if there are any big changes.

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SUMMARY: A developing tropical system is located approximately 260 miles south of Jamaica and is strengthening, with the potential to be named soon. The system is expected to approach the Cayman Islands as a possible hurricane by Tuesday and near Cuba by Wednesday. It’s projected to enter the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday, but may weaken quickly due to wind shear, dry air, and cooler water temperatures. The National Hurricane Center suggests a low overall concern for impacts, forecasting only light rain and breezy conditions for Friday and Saturday, with updates necessary as the storm develops.

A developing storm is moving through the Caribbean Monday morning. The system, likely to get the name Rafael, will move toward Cuba by Wednesday as a hurricane.

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SUMMARY: This year has seen significant tornado activity in the U.S., particularly around Oklahoma City and Norman, which are currently facing tornado watches and flash flood warnings. Meanwhile, Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 is projected to approach Jamaica and Cuba, possibly becoming a category one hurricane before entering the Gulf of Mexico by midweek. Although it may weaken while moving through the Gulf due to dry air and wind shear, the forecast indicates it could enhance rain chances in the U.S. The upcoming system is likely to be named Rafael, with specific tracking still uncertain.

Meteorologist Devon Lucie brings is to the Caribbean tracking what’s expected to be Hurricane Rafael and could enter the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week letting you know what’s the likeliest track and what impact it could have on Louisiana

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