Connect with us

Mississippi Today

Republicans again a lock to control Legislature after November election

Published

on

Republicans again a lock to control Legislature after November election

For a brief period in Mississippi’s political past, there was suspense going into the November statewide general elections about which party would control the Legislature.

For much of the state’s history, though, the minority party had no mathematical chance to capture the state Legislature in the general election. And that is certainly the case now.

If all the candidates Democrats found to qualify to run for state House and Senate seats won their November general elections, the Republicans still will have sizable majorities when the 2024 session begins.

Eleven Democrats qualified by the Feb. 1 deadline to run for House seats currently held by Republicans. But few expect all of the Democratic candidates to defeat the Republican incumbents. It would be more likely that all would lose.

But even if all 11 Democrats won, Republicans would still control a majority in the House. There are currently 76 Republicans, 41 Democrats and three independents in the 122-member chamber. Two seats are vacant — one held for years by a Democrat and one that traditionally is a Republican seat.

If the Democrats won all of those 11 seats, they would have 53 members, including the current vacancy, in the 122-member House. Democrats also will be favored to win another seat currently held by Michael Ted Evans, an independent from Preston in east Mississippi, though a Republican will be on the ballot. Democrats also could pick up a seat in House District 64, currently held by Rep. Shanda Yates, an independent from Jackson.

Over in the Senate, the outlook is not much better for the Democrats. Republicans currently have a 36-16 advantage in the 52-member Senate. Democrats are challenging five of those 36 Republicans. Even using the new math, there is no way in November that Democrats can gain control of the Senate.

The state is not quite in the same position it was for decades when it was a given that the Democrats would control the Legislature and there would be only a handful of Republican lawmakers at best. No matter what happens in November, there will be a healthy number of Democrats in both the House and Senate.

For a few election cycles in the late 1990s and 2000s, as state politics evolved from Democratic to Republican control, there was suspense going into the November general election about which party would control the Legislature.

That culminated in the 2011 elections, when Republicans by a narrow margin won the House for the first time since Reconstruction and captured the Senate by a wider margin. Those Republican majorities grew during the four-year term as House and Senate members changed from Democratic to Republican.

As a result of the 2015 elections, Republicans gained more seats and captured a three-fifths majority in both chambers. That was significant since a three-fifths majority gives Republicans enough votes to pass a tax cut or tax increase without any Democratic support if all the Republicans stick together.

Going into the 2023 elections later this year, Republicans have two-thirds majorities in both chambers — enough to pass by the required two-thirds majority a resolution to amend the Mississippi Constitution.

Should Democrat Brandon Presley prove political prognosticators wrong and defeat Republican incumbent Gov. Tate Reeves this November, Republicans without any Democratic help would have the required two-thirds majority needed to override a Presley veto.

Some other interesting legislative nuggets resulting from the deadline to qualify to run for office:

  • Republicans are running in seven House seats currently held by Democrats. They are likely to win at least two of those seats.
  • Republicans are challenging in four Senate districts held by Democrats.
  • Twenty-eight House Republicans, including 27 incumbents, are unopposed this year without opposition in the party primary or in the general election from Democrats or from third party candidates.
  • Nineteen House Democrats are running with no opposition.
  • Sixteen Senate Republicans are running unopposed.
  • Seven Senate Democrats are running with no opposition.

Under the current political climate, there is most likely no legislative map that could be drawn where the Democrats could capture control of the Legislature. But by the same token, the Republicans have gerrymandered the districts to such an extent that there are currently few competitive districts. Under the current legislative districts, there are a lot of Republican districts where the Democrat has little chance of winning and a fewer number of Democratic districts where the Republican has little or no chance to prevail.

A more balanced map with more competitive districts could be drawn.

But in the current political climate with the current legislative districts, the bottom line is that while there might be some individual races of interest on Nov. 7, there will be no questions that night about which party will control the Mississippi Legislature.

For decades it was the Democrats. Now it is Republicans.

In Mississippi, the more things change the more they stay the same.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

Did you miss our previous article…
https://www.biloxinewsevents.com/?p=208246

Mississippi Today

On this day in 1997

Published

on

mississippitoday.org – Jerry Mitchell – 2024-12-22 07:00:00

Dec. 22, 1997

Myrlie Evers and Reena Evers-Everette cheer the jury verdict of Feb. 5, 1994, when Byron De La Beckwith was found guilty of the 1963 murder of Mississippi NAACP leader Medgar Evers. Credit: AP/Rogelio Solis

The Mississippi Supreme Court upheld the conviction of white supremacist Byron De La Beckwith for the 1963 murder of Medgar Evers. 

In the court’s 4–2 decision, Justice Mike Mills praised efforts “to squeeze justice out of the harm caused by a furtive explosion which erupted from dark bushes on a June night in Jackson, Mississippi.” 

He wrote that Beckwith’s constitutional right to a speedy trial had not been denied. His “complicity with the Sovereignty Commission’s involvement in the prior trials contributed to the delay.” 

The decision did more than ensure that Beckwith would stay behind bars. The conviction helped clear the way for other prosecutions of unpunished killings from the Civil Rights Era.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

Continue Reading

Mississippi Today

Medicaid expansion tracker approaches $1 billion loss for Mississippi

Published

on

mississippitoday.org – Bobby Harrison – 2024-12-22 06:00:00

About the time people ring in the new year next week, the digital tracker on Mississippi Today’s homepage tabulating the amount of money the state is losing by not expanding Medicaid will hit $1 billion.

The state has lost $1 billion not since the start of the quickly departing 2024 but since the beginning of the state’s fiscal year on July 1.

Some who oppose Medicaid expansion say the digital tracker is flawed.

During an October news conference, when state Auditor Shad White unveiled details of his $2 million study seeking ways to cut state government spending, he said he did not look at Medicaid expansion as a method to save money or grow state revenue.

“I think that (Mississippi Today) calculator is wrong,” White said. “… I don’t think that takes into account how many people are going to be moved off the federal health care exchange where their health care is paid for fully by the federal government and moved onto Medicaid.”

White is not the only Mississippi politician who has expressed concern that if Medicaid expansion were enacted, thousands of people would lose their insurance on the exchange and be forced to enroll in Medicaid for health care coverage.

Mississippi Today’s projections used for the tracker are based on studies conducted by the Institutions of Higher Learning University Research Center. Granted, there are a lot of variables in the study that are inexact. It is impossible to say, for example, how many people will get sick and need health care, thus increasing the cost of Medicaid expansion. But is reasonable that the projections of the University Research Center are in the ballpark of being accurate and close to other studies conducted by health care experts.

White and others are correct that Mississippi Today’s calculator does not take into account money flowing into the state for people covered on the health care exchange. But that money does not go to the state; it goes to insurance companies that, granted, use that money to reimburse Mississippians for providing health care. But at least a portion of the money goes to out-of-state insurance companies as profits.

Both Medicaid expansion and the health care exchange are part of the Affordable Care Act. Under Medicaid expansion people earning up to $20,120 annually can sign up for Medicaid and the federal government will pay the bulk of the cost. Mississippi is one of 10 states that have not opted into Medicaid expansion.

People making more than $14,580 annually can garner private insurance through the health insurance exchanges, and people below certain income levels can receive help from the federal government in paying for that coverage.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, legislation championed and signed into law by President Joe Biden significantly increased the federal subsidies provided to people receiving insurance on the exchange. Those increased subsidies led to many Mississippians — desperate for health care — turning to the exchange for help.

White, state Insurance Commissioner Mike Chaney, Gov. Tate Reeves and others have expressed concern that those people would lose their private health insurance and be forced to sign up for Medicaid if lawmakers vote to expand Medicaid.

They are correct.

But they do not mention that the enhanced benefits authored by the Biden administration are scheduled to expire in December 2025 unless they are reenacted by Congress. The incoming Donald Trump administration has given no indication it will continue the enhanced subsidies.

As a matter of fact, the Trump administration, led by billionaire Elon Musk, is looking for ways to cut federal spending.

Some have speculated that Medicaid expansion also could be on Musk’s chopping block.

That is possible. But remember congressional action is required to continue the enhanced subsidies. On the flip side, congressional action would most likely be required to end or cut Medicaid expansion.

Would the multiple U.S. senators and House members in the red states that have expanded Medicaid vote to end a program that is providing health care to thousands of their constituents?

If Congress does not continue Biden’s enhanced subsidies, the rates for Mississippians on the exchange will increase on average about $500 per year, according to a study by KFF, a national health advocacy nonprofit. If that occurs, it is likely that many of the 280,000 Mississippians on the exchange will drop their coverage.

The result will be that Mississippi’s rate of uninsured — already one of the highest in the nation – will rise further, putting additional pressure on hospitals and other providers who will be treating patients who have no ability to pay.

In the meantime, the Mississippi Today counter that tracks the amount of money Mississippi is losing by not expanding Medicaid keeps ticking up.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

Continue Reading

Mississippi Today

On this day in 1911

Published

on

mississippitoday.org – Jerry Mitchell – 2024-12-21 07:00:00

Dec. 21, 1911

A colorized photograph of Josh Gibson, who was playing with the Homestead Grays Credit: Wikipedia

Josh Gibson, the Negro League’s “Home Run King,” was born in Buena Vista, Georgia. 

When the family’s farm suffered, they moved to Pittsburgh, and Gibson tried baseball at age 16. He eventually played for a semi-pro team in Pittsburgh and became known for his towering home runs. 

He was watching the Homestead Grays play on July 25, 1930, when the catcher injured his hand. Team members called for Gibson, sitting in the stands, to join them. He was such a talented catcher that base runners were more reluctant to steal. He hit the baseball so hard and so far (580 feet once at Yankee Stadium) that he became the second-highest paid player in the Negro Leagues behind Satchel Paige, with both of them entering the National Baseball Hame of Fame. 

The Hall estimated that Gibson hit nearly 800 homers in his 17-year career and had a lifetime batting average of .359. Gibson was portrayed in the 1996 TV movie, “Soul of the Game,” by Mykelti Williamson. Blair Underwood played Jackie Robinson, Delroy Lindo portrayed Satchel Paige, and Harvey Williams played “Cat” Mays, the father of the legendary Willie Mays. 

Gibson has now been honored with a statue outside the Washington Nationals’ ballpark.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

Continue Reading

Trending