Mississippi Today
Republican operatives sound every alarm on current trajectory of 2023 governor’s race

Welcome to The Homestretch, a daily blog featuring the most comprehensive coverage of the 2023 Mississippi governor’s race. This page, curated by the Mississippi Today politics team, will feature the biggest storylines of the 2023 governor’s race at 7 a.m. every day between now and the Nov. 7 election.
It might not surprise Mississippians that The Cook Political Report, regarded as one of the nation’s preeminent elections experts, shifted their 2023 Mississippi governor’s race forecast on Monday in Democrat Brandon Presley’s direction.
Presley, who is challenging Republican Gov. Tate Reeves in November, has mounted a strong, high-dollar campaign and is clearly picking up steam in a race against an incumbent who has struggled with likability problems. Polls this year have consistently shown Presley within striking distance and Reeves struggling to get 50% support.
But what may surprise many Mississippians is what at least two anonymous Republican Party operatives based in the state told Cook Political Report editor Jessica Taylor. Here’s what they said:
- “I think Brandon has run a good race, while Reeves is soft with some Republicans, particularly moderates. [Presley has] done everything you can do, he’s been very disciplined and he’s done a very good job staying on message. It’s like he wakes up in the middle of the night and says ‘grocery tax cut, expand Medicare and corruption.’”
- “My concern is that Brandon Presley has had a lot of cash come his way and he’s spent aggressively on TV. To me the risk for Tate is his side tends to think he’s fine, but Tate’s likability is an issue, and I think that can affect turnout. I think the combination of that and Presley having more money makes an eight-point race closer potentially.”
- “My message to Republicans would be, Brandon Presley’s got a big wad of cash and there’s great risk of us having low turnout. If [Presley] spends his cash wisely on turning out the Democratic vote, this thing could be really really close.”
- “If Republican turnout is softer than it would be otherwise,” there’s cause for concern, one Mississippi Republican said. “But I know if Bennie is engaged,” Democrats might be able to “juice [Black turnout] somewhat.”
For weeks, as Mississippi Today has reported, GOP operatives in Mississippi have been trying to sound the alarm. But if those quotes published Monday don’t stir the Reeves campaign into a frenzy, it might be time for the governor to find some new staffers.
The winds have clearly been shifting in recent weeks. A new poll released yesterday by the Democratic Governors Association has the race within just one point. Presley is still riding news that he out-raised Reeves over the past three months — a shock to many who regard Reeves as the state’s most successful fundraiser perhaps ever.
And now The Cook Political Report moved the 2023 Mississippi governor’s race on Monday from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” — a shift in Presley’s direction. It’s just one notch from “Toss Up.”
“Republican Gov. Tate Reeves still has the edge, according to Republicans and Democrats nationally and locally we’ve talked to, but it’s morphed into a competitive fight with added intrigue heading into Election Day thanks to an unusually strong challenger in Brandon Presley,” Taylor, the Cook editor, wrote. “There is also an increasing scenario that neither candidate will top 50% on Nov. 7, which means the contest could head to a runoff three weeks later.
“ … Ultimately, this race has clearly become competitive, from the money that Presley has to the way Republicans are responding and beginning to worry.”
Four years ago, when Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood mounted a tough challenge of Reeves for the Governor’s Mansion, Cook moved its rating from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” on Sept. 27. Reeves defeated Hood 52% to 47%.
A key difference in this year’s race than four years ago, Taylor writes, is the possibility of a runoff election. A third 2023 gubernatorial candidate, independent Gwendolyn Gray, dropped out of the race in early October and endorsed Presley, but her announced exit came too late to be removed from the ballot. She could earn enough votes to keep Reeves or Presley from reaching 50%, which would push those two candidates to a Nov. 28 runoff election.
The alarms inside the Mississippi GOP are blaring, and Democrats feel like they have momentum. We said it yesterday and we’ll say it again today: Just 14 days from Election Day, there’s plenty of drama.
Headlines From The Trail
New governor’s race poll shows Reeves leading Presley by just one point
House Minority Leader Robert Johnson: Black turnout could be key in upcoming election
Mississippi governor’s race moves from Likely to Lean Republican
Delayed homicide autopsies pile up in Mississippi despite tough-on-crime-talk
Presley focuses on Black turnout as governor’s race enters final weeks
Presley, other statewide candidates engage crowd at NAACP forum
Poverty is among Mississippi voters’ main concerns in the upcoming election
Poll has Republican Gov. Tate Reeves leading challenger Brandon Presley by 1 point
Abortion is on the ballot in November. The outcome will shape 2024.
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What We’re Watching
1) Both candidates are absolutely tearing up Mississippi’s less-than-stellar roads. Yesterday, Reeves made stops in Columbus, Macon and Noxubee County. Presley made stops in West Point, Meridian and Laurel.
2) What on earth happened at U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith’s home in Brookhaven on Sunday? Mississippi Today’s Bobby Harrison reported Monday that U.S. Secret Service is investigating after someone fired shots near her home. Gun rights and gun violence hasn’t been mentioned on the 2023 trail, but there’s two weeks left. Might the incident force the candidates into discussing a new issue?
3) Both Reeves and Presley will speak to the state’s top business leaders at the annual Hobnob lunch hosted by the Mississippi Economic Council on Oct. 26. It’s one of few venues where both candidates speak to the same room. They won’t be on stage together, but there could still be some fireworks.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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Mississippi Today
1964: Mississippi Freedom Democratic Party was formed
April 26, 1964

Civil rights activists started the Mississippi Freedom Democratic Party to challenge the state’s all-white regular delegation to the Democratic National Convention.
The regulars had already adopted this resolution: “We oppose, condemn and deplore the Civil Rights Act of 1964 … We believe in separation of the races in all phases of our society. It is our belief that the separation of the races is necessary for the peace and tranquility of all the people of Mississippi, and the continuing good relationship which has existed over the years.”
In reality, Black Mississippians had been victims of intimidation, harassment and violence for daring to try and vote as well as laws passed to disenfranchise them. As a result, by 1964, only 6% of Black Mississippians were permitted to vote. A year earlier, activists had run a mock election in which thousands of Black Mississippians showed they would vote if given an opportunity.
In August 1964, the Freedom Party decided to challenge the all-white delegation, saying they had been illegally elected in a segregated process and had no intention of supporting President Lyndon B. Johnson in the November election.
The prediction proved true, with white Mississippi Democrats overwhelmingly supporting Republican candidate Barry Goldwater, who opposed the Civil Rights Act. While the activists fell short of replacing the regulars, their courageous stand led to changes in both parties.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Mississippi Today
Mississippi River flooding Vicksburg, expected to crest on Monday
Warren County Emergency Management Director John Elfer said Friday floodwaters from the Mississippi River, which have reached homes in and around Vicksburg, will likely persist until early May. Elfer estimated there areabout 15 to 20 roads underwater in the area.
“We’re about half a foot (on the river gauge) from a major flood,” he said. “But we don’t think it’s going to be like in 2011, so we can kind of manage this.”
The National Weather projects the river to crest at 49.5 feet on Monday, making it the highest peak at the Vicksburg gauge since 2020. Elfer said some residents in north Vicksburg — including at the Ford Subdivision as well as near Chickasaw Road and Hutson Street — are having to take boats to get home, adding that those who live on the unprotected side of the levee are generally prepared for flooding.



“There are a few (inundated homes), but we’ve mitigated a lot of them,” he said. “Some of the structures have been torn down or raised. There are a few people that still live on the wet side of the levee, but they kind of know what to expect. So we’re not too concerned with that.”
The river first reached flood stage in the city — 43 feet — on April 14. State officials closed Highway 465, which connects the Eagle Lake community just north of Vicksburg to Highway 61, last Friday.

Elfer said the areas impacted are mostly residential and he didn’t believe any businesses have been affected, emphasizing that downtown Vicksburg is still safe for visitors. He said Warren County has worked with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency to secure pumps and barriers.
“Everybody thus far has been very cooperative,” he said. “We continue to tell people stay out of the flood areas, don’t drive around barricades and don’t drive around road close signs. Not only is it illegal, it’s dangerous.”
NWS projects the river to stay at flood stage in Vicksburg until May 6. The river reached its record crest of 57.1 feet in 2011.




This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Mississippi Today
With domestic violence law, victims ‘will be a number with a purpose,’ mother says
Joslin Napier. Carlos Collins. Bailey Mae Reed.
They are among Mississippi domestic violence homicide victims whose family members carried their photos as the governor signed a bill that will establish a board to study such deaths and how to prevent them.
Tara Gandy, who lost her daughter Napier in Waynesboro in 2022, said it’s a moment she plans to tell her 5-year-old grandson about when he is old enough. Napier’s presence, in spirit, at the bill signing can be another way for her grandson to feel proud of his mother.
“(The board) will allow for my daughter and those who have already lost their lives to domestic violence … to no longer be just a number,” Gandy said. “They will be a number with a purpose.”
Family members at the April 15 private bill signing included Ashla Hudson, whose son Collins, died last year in Jackson. Grandparents Mary and Charles Reed and brother Colby Kernell attended the event in honor of Bailey Mae Reed, who died in Oxford in 2023.
Joining them were staff and board members from the Mississippi Coalition Against Domestic Violence, the statewide group that supports shelters and advocated for the passage of Senate Bill 2886 to form a Domestic Violence Facility Review Board.
The law will go into effect July 1, and the coalition hopes to partner with elected officials who will make recommendations for members to serve on the board. The coalition wants to see appointees who have frontline experience with domestic violence survivors, said Luis Montgomery, public policy specialist for the coalition.
A spokesperson from Gov. Tate Reeves’ office did not respond to a request for comment Friday.
Establishment of the board would make Mississippi the 45th state to review domestic violence fatalities.
Montgomery has worked on passing a review board bill since December 2023. After an unsuccessful effort in 2024, the coalition worked to build support and educate people about the need for such a board.
In the recent legislative session, there were House and Senate versions of the bill that unanimously passed their respective chambers. Authors of the bills are from both political parties.
The review board is tasked with reviewing a variety of documents to learn about the lead up and circumstances in which people died in domestic violence-related fatalities, near fatalities and suicides – records that can include police records, court documents, medical records and more.
From each review, trends will emerge and that information can be used for the board to make recommendations to lawmakers about how to prevent domestic violence deaths.
“This is coming at a really great time because we can really get proactive,” Montgomery said.
Without a board and data collection, advocates say it is difficult to know how many people have died or been injured in domestic-violence related incidents.
A Mississippi Today analysis found at least 300 people, including victims, abusers and collateral victims, died from domestic violence between 2020 and 2024. That analysis came from reviewing local news stories, the Gun Violence Archive, the National Gun Violence Memorial, law enforcement reports and court documents.
Some recent cases the board could review are the deaths of Collins, Napier and Reed.
In court records, prosecutors wrote that Napier, 24, faced increased violence after ending a relationship with Chance Fabian Jones. She took action, including purchasing a firearm and filing for a protective order against Jones.
Jones’s trial is set for May 12 in Wayne County. His indictment for capital murder came on the first anniversary of her death, according to court records.
Collins, 25, worked as a nurse and was from Yazoo City. His ex-boyfriend Marcus Johnson has been indicted for capital murder and shooting into Collins’ apartment. Family members say Collins had filed several restraining orders against Johnson.
Johnson was denied bond and remains in jail. His trial is scheduled for July 28 in Hinds County.
He was a Jackson police officer for eight months in 2013. Johnson was separated from the department pending disciplinary action leading up to immediate termination, but he resigned before he was fired, Jackson police confirmed to local media.
Reed, 21, was born and raised in Michigan and moved to Water Valley to live with her grandparents and help care for her cousin, according to her obituary.
Kylan Jacques Phillips was charged with first degree murder for beating Reed, according to court records. In February, the court ordered him to undergo a mental evaluation to determine if he is competent to stand trial, according to court documents.
At the bill signing, Gandy said it was bittersweet and an honor to meet the families of other domestic violence homicide victims.
“We were there knowing we are not alone, we can travel this road together and hopefully find ways to prevent and bring more awareness about domestic violence,” she said.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
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