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Republican operatives sound every alarm on current trajectory of 2023 governor’s race

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Welcome to The Homestretch, a daily blog featuring the most comprehensive coverage of the 2023 Mississippi governor’s race. This page, curated by the Mississippi Today politics team, will feature the biggest storylines of the 2023 governor’s race at 7 a.m. every day between now and the Nov. 7 election.

It might not surprise Mississippians that The Cook Political Report, regarded as one of the nation’s preeminent elections experts, shifted their 2023 Mississippi governor’s race forecast on Monday in Democrat Brandon Presley’s direction.

Presley, who is challenging Republican Gov. Tate Reeves in November, has mounted a strong, high-dollar campaign and is clearly picking up steam in a race against an incumbent who has struggled with likability problems. Polls this year have consistently shown Presley within striking distance and Reeves struggling to get 50% support.

But what may surprise many Mississippians is what at least two anonymous Republican Party operatives based in the state told Cook Political Report editor Jessica Taylor. Here’s what they said:

  • “I think Brandon has run a good race, while Reeves is soft with some Republicans, particularly moderates. [Presley has] done everything you can do, he’s been very disciplined and he’s done a very good job staying on message. It’s like he wakes up in the middle of the night and says ‘grocery tax cut, expand Medicare and corruption.’”
  • “My concern is that Brandon Presley has had a lot of cash come his way and he’s spent aggressively on TV. To me the risk for Tate is his side tends to think he’s fine, but Tate’s likability is an issue, and I think that can affect turnout. I think the combination of that and Presley having more money makes an eight-point race closer potentially.”
  • “My message to Republicans would be, Brandon Presley’s got a big wad of cash and there’s great risk of us having low turnout. If [Presley] spends his cash wisely on turning out the Democratic vote, this thing could be really really close.”
  • “If Republican turnout is softer than it would be otherwise,” there’s cause for concern, one Mississippi Republican said. “But I know if Bennie is engaged,” Democrats might be able to “juice [Black turnout] somewhat.”

For weeks, as Mississippi Today has reported, GOP operatives in Mississippi have been trying to sound the alarm. But if those quotes published Monday don’t stir the Reeves campaign into a frenzy, it might be time for the governor to find some new staffers.

The winds have clearly been shifting in recent weeks. A new poll released yesterday by the Democratic Governors Association has the race within just one point. Presley is still riding news that he out-raised Reeves over the past three months — a shock to many who regard Reeves as the state’s most successful fundraiser perhaps ever.

And now The Cook Political Report moved the 2023 Mississippi governor’s race on Monday from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” — a shift in Presley’s direction. It’s just one notch from “Toss Up.”

“Republican Gov. Tate Reeves still has the edge, according to Republicans and Democrats nationally and locally we’ve talked to, but it’s morphed into a competitive fight with added intrigue heading into Election Day thanks to an unusually strong challenger in Brandon Presley,” Taylor, the Cook editor, wrote. “There is also an increasing scenario that neither candidate will top 50% on Nov. 7, which means the contest could head to a runoff three weeks later.

“ … Ultimately, this race has clearly become competitive, from the money that Presley has to the way Republicans are responding and beginning to worry.”

Four years ago, when Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood mounted a tough challenge of Reeves for the Governor’s Mansion, Cook moved its rating from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” on Sept. 27. Reeves defeated Hood 52% to 47%.

A key difference in this year’s race than four years ago, Taylor writes, is the possibility of a runoff election. A third 2023 gubernatorial candidate, independent Gwendolyn Gray, dropped out of the race in early October and endorsed Presley, but her announced exit came too late to be removed from the ballot. She could earn enough votes to keep Reeves or Presley from reaching 50%, which would push those two candidates to a Nov. 28 runoff election.

The alarms inside the Mississippi GOP are blaring, and Democrats feel like they have momentum. We said it yesterday and we’ll say it again today: Just 14 days from Election Day, there’s plenty of drama.

Headlines From The Trail

New governor’s race poll shows Reeves leading Presley by just one point

House Minority Leader Robert Johnson: Black turnout could be key in upcoming election

Mississippi governor’s race moves from Likely to Lean Republican

Delayed homicide autopsies pile up in Mississippi despite tough-on-crime-talk

Presley focuses on Black turnout as governor’s race enters final weeks

Presley, other statewide candidates engage crowd at NAACP forum

Poverty is among Mississippi voters’ main concerns in the upcoming election

Poll has Republican Gov. Tate Reeves leading challenger Brandon Presley by 1 point

Abortion is on the ballot in November. The outcome will shape 2024.

10 Medicaid holdout states scramble to improve health coverage

What We’re Watching

1) Both candidates are absolutely tearing up Mississippi’s less-than-stellar roads. Yesterday, Reeves made stops in Columbus, Macon and Noxubee County. Presley made stops in West Point, Meridian and Laurel.

2) What on earth happened at U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith’s home in Brookhaven on Sunday? Mississippi Today’s Bobby Harrison reported Monday that U.S. Secret Service is investigating after someone fired shots near her home. Gun rights and gun violence hasn’t been mentioned on the 2023 trail, but there’s two weeks left. Might the incident force the candidates into discussing a new issue?

3) Both Reeves and Presley will speak to the state’s top business leaders at the annual Hobnob lunch hosted by the Mississippi Economic Council on Oct. 26. It’s one of few venues where both candidates speak to the same room. They won’t be on stage together, but there could still be some fireworks.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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Mississippi Today

On this day in 1972

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mississippitoday.org – Jerry Mitchell – 2024-11-16 07:00:00

Nov. 16, 1972

Credit: Courtesy: LSU Manship School News Service

A law enforcement officer shot and killed two students at Southern University in Baton Rouge after weeks of protests over inadequate services. 

When the students marched on University President Leon Netterville’s office, Louisiana Gov. Edwin Edwards sent scores of police officers in to break up the demonstrations. A still-unidentified officer shot and killed two 20-year-old students, Leonard Brown and Denver Smith, who weren’t among the protesters. No one was ever prosecuted in their slayings. 

They have since been awarded posthumous degrees, and the university’s Smith-Brown Memorial Union bears their names. Stanley Nelson’s documentary, “Tell Them We Are Rising: The Story of Black Colleges and Universities,” featured a 10-minute segment on the killings. 

“They were exercising their constitutional rights. And they get killed for it,” former student Michael Cato said. “Nobody sent their child to school to die.” 

In 2022, Louisiana State University Cold Case Project reporters, utilizing nearly 2,700 pages of previously undisclosed documents, recreated the day of the shootings and showed how the FBI narrowed its search to several sheriff’s deputies but could not prove which one fired the fatal shot. The four-part series prompted Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards to apologize to the families of the victims on behalf of the state.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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Gloster residents protest Drax’s new permit request

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mississippitoday.org – Alex Rozier – 2024-11-15 13:33:00

GLOSTER — Drax, the United Kingdom-based wood pellet producer that’s violated air pollution limits in Mississippi multiple times, is asking the state to raise the amount of emissions it’s allowed to release from its facility in Gloster.

In September, the state fined Drax $225,000 for releasing 50% over the permitted limit of HAPs, or Hazardous Air Pollutants, from its facility Amite BioEnergy. In a pending permit application that it submitted to the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality in 2022, the company is seeking to transition from a “minor source” of HAPs to a “major source.”

A “major source” permit would remove the limit over the facility’s total HAP emissions, but it would apply a new limit over the rate at which Drax could release the pollutants.

This year’s fine was its second penalty for violating Mississippi law around air pollution limits. In 2020, the state fined the company $2.5 million for releasing over three times the legal threshold of Volatile Organic Compounds, or VOCs, one of the largest such fines in state history. Drax underestimated its VOC releases since the facility opened in 2016, but didn’t realize it until 2018. The facility didn’t come into compliance until 2021.

The Environmental Protection Agency lists a variety of potential health impacts from exposure to HAPs, including damage to the immune system and respiratory issues. VOCs can also cause breathing problems, as well as eye, nose and throat irritation, according to the American Lung Association.

About sixty people packed into a Gloster public library for MDEQ’s public hearing over Drax’s permit application on Nov. 14, 2024.

For years since Drax’s violations became public, nearby residents have attributed health issues to living near the facility. During a public hearing on Drax’s permit request Thursday in Gloster, attendees reiterated those concerns.

“We all experience headaches every day,” resident Christie Harvey said about her and her grandchildren. Harvey said she has asthma too, and her doctor was “baffled” by her symptoms. “Each week I have to take (my grandchildren) to the clinic for upper respiratory issues … It’s not fair that we have to go through this. Drax needs to lower the pollution as much as possible.”

Part of the public outcry is the proximity of people’s homes to the plant, which is within a mile of Gloster’s downtown.

A screenshot of Google Maps showing the location of Drax’s Amite BioEnergy facility relative to the rest of Gloster. The facility is within a mile of the downtown area.

“The wood pellet plant in Lucedale is situated in an industrial park outside of town,” Andrew Whitehurst of Healthy Gulf, an environmental group dedicated to protecting the Gulf of Mexico’s natural resources, said at the meeting. “The wood pellet plant that (Enviva is) trying to put in Bond will be situated north and west of the downtown area. Not like this when it’s right smack in the middle (of the city). It’s totally inappropriate. People can’t take it, they don’t deserve it.”

In a statement to Mississippi Today, Drax said it prioritizes the public health and environment in Gloster, adding that the permit modification is a part of standard business practice.

“When we first began operations, some of our original permits were not fit for purpose,” spokesperson Michelli Martin said via e-mail. “We are now working to acquire the appropriate permits for our operating output and to improve our compliance. Within these permits the requirements may change based on engineering data and industry standards. This permit modification is part of our ongoing plan to provide MDEQ with the most accurate data. Drax fully supports the resolution of our permitting request and looks forward to working with MDEQ to finalize the details.”

While researchers, including from Brown University, are studying the health symptoms of residents near the wood pellet plant, there is no proven connection between the facility’s emissions and those symptoms.

Erica Walker, a Jackson native who teaches epidemiology at Brown and who’s leading the study, spoke to Mississippi Today earlier this year. Regardless of the cause and effect, she said, the decision to put the plant near disadvantaged communities with poor health outcomes is concerning.

“We want to make sure we aren’t additionally burdening already burdened communities,” Walker said.

Operations resume at Drax in Gloster, Miss., on Friday, Feb. 16, 2024. Some Gloster residents are concerned with the industrial pollution caused by the company that produces wood pellets in the town. Credit: Eric J. Shelton/Mississippi Today

About 1,300 people live in the city, according to Census data, and 39% live below the poverty line.

Moreover, Gloster residents often have to travel hours, to cities such as McComb and Baton Rouge, to find the nearest medical specialist. Amite County, where Gloster is, has a higher rate of uninsured residents than the rest of the state, according to County Health Rankings, and the ratio of residents to primary care physicians is over three times greater in the county than Mississippi as a whole.

As part of its application, Drax is seeking a Title V permit under the Clean Air Act, which the EPA requires for major sources of air pollutants. This gives the EPA the opportunity to review Drax’s application and public comments submitted with it. The public can submit comments on the application until Nov. 26, and can do so through MDEQ’s website.

The Mississippi Environmental Quality Permit Board, which is made up of officials from several state agencies, will then decide whether or not to grant the new permits. A full overview of the process and Drax’s application is available online.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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Mississippi receives ‘F’ rating on preterm birth rate

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mississippitoday.org – Sophia Paffenroth – 2024-11-15 10:11:00

Mississippi received an F grade for its rate of preterm births in 2023 – those occurring before 37 weeks gestation – from the 2024 March of Dimes report card

Mississippi’s preterm birth rate was 15%, the worst in the country. Any state with a rate greater than 11.5% also received an F. The U.S. average was 10.4%. 

Preterm births in Mississippi have risen steadily over the last decade, increasingly nearly 2% since 2013. In Jackson, the state capital, nearly one in five babies are born preterm, according to the report. 

“As a clinician, I know the profound impact that comprehensive prenatal care has on pregnancy outcomes for both mom and baby,” Dr. Amanda P. Williams, interim chief medical officer at March of Dimes, said in a press release. “Yet, too many families, especially those from our most vulnerable communities, are not receiving the support they need to ensure healthy pregnancies and births. The health of mom and baby are intricately intertwined. If we can address chronic health conditions and help ensure all moms have access to quality prenatal care, we can help every family get the best possible start.” 

In addition to inadequate prenatal care, factors such as smoking, hypertension, diabetes and unhealthy weight can cause people to be more likely to have a preterm birth.

The report highlighted several other metrics, including infant mortality – in which Mississippi continues to lead the nation. 

In 2022, 316 babies in the state died before their first birthday. Among babies born to Black mothers, the infant mortality rate is 1.3 times higher. 

The state’s maternal mortality rate of 39.1 per 100,000 live births is nearly double the national average of 23.2.

Mississippi has yet to expand Medicaid – one of only 10 states not to do so – and tens of thousands of working Mississippians remain without health insurance. It also has not implemented paid family leave, doula reimbursement by Medicaid, or supportive midwifery policies – all of which March of Dimes says are critical to improving and sustaining infant and maternal health care.

The Legislature passed a law last session that would make timely prenatal care easier for expectant mothers, but more than four months after the law was supposed to go into effect, pregnant women still can’t access the temporary coverage.

“March of Dimes is committed to advocating for policies that make healthcare more accessible like Medicaid expansion, addressing the root causes of disparities, and increasing awareness of impactful solutions like our Low Dose, Big Benefits campaign, which supports families and communities to take proactive steps toward healthy pregnancies,” Cindy Rahman, March of Dimes interim president and CEO, said in a press release.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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