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Republican operatives sound every alarm on current trajectory of 2023 governor’s race

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Welcome to The Homestretch, a daily blog featuring the most comprehensive coverage of the 2023 Mississippi governor’s race. This page, curated by the Mississippi Today politics team, will feature the biggest storylines of the 2023 governor’s race at 7 a.m. every day between now and the Nov. 7 election.

It might not surprise Mississippians that The Cook Political Report, regarded as one of the nation’s preeminent elections experts, shifted their 2023 Mississippi governor’s race forecast on Monday in Democrat Brandon Presley’s direction.

Presley, who is challenging Republican Gov. Tate Reeves in November, has mounted a strong, high-dollar campaign and is clearly picking up steam in a race against an incumbent who has struggled with likability problems. Polls this year have consistently shown Presley within striking distance and Reeves struggling to get 50% support.

But what may surprise many Mississippians is what at least two anonymous Republican Party operatives based in the state told Cook Political Report editor Jessica Taylor. Here’s what they said:

  • “I think Brandon has run a good race, while Reeves is soft with some Republicans, particularly moderates. [Presley has] done everything you can do, he’s been very disciplined and he’s done a very good job staying on message. It’s like he wakes up in the middle of the night and says ‘grocery tax cut, expand Medicare and corruption.’”
  • “My concern is that Brandon Presley has had a lot of cash come his way and he’s spent aggressively on TV. To me the risk for Tate is his side tends to think he’s fine, but Tate’s likability is an issue, and I think that can affect turnout. I think the combination of that and Presley having more money makes an eight-point race closer potentially.”
  • “My message to Republicans would be, Brandon Presley’s got a big wad of cash and there’s great risk of us having low turnout. If [Presley] spends his cash wisely on turning out the Democratic vote, this thing could be really really close.”
  • “If Republican turnout is softer than it would be otherwise,” there’s cause for concern, one Mississippi Republican said. “But I know if Bennie is engaged,” Democrats might be able to “juice [Black turnout] somewhat.”

For weeks, as Mississippi Today has reported, GOP operatives in Mississippi have been trying to sound the alarm. But if those quotes published Monday don’t stir the Reeves campaign into a frenzy, it might be time for the governor to find some new staffers.

The winds have clearly been shifting in recent weeks. A new poll released yesterday by the Democratic Governors Association has the race within just one point. Presley is still riding news that he out-raised Reeves over the past three months — a shock to many who regard Reeves as the state’s most successful fundraiser perhaps ever.

And now The Cook Political Report moved the 2023 Mississippi governor’s race on Monday from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” — a shift in Presley’s direction. It’s just one notch from “Toss Up.”

“Republican Gov. Tate Reeves still has the edge, according to Republicans and Democrats nationally and locally we’ve talked to, but it’s morphed into a competitive fight with added intrigue heading into Election Day thanks to an unusually strong challenger in Brandon Presley,” Taylor, the Cook editor, wrote. “There is also an increasing scenario that neither candidate will top 50% on Nov. 7, which means the contest could head to a runoff three weeks later.

“ … Ultimately, this race has clearly become competitive, from the money that Presley has to the way Republicans are responding and beginning to worry.”

Four years ago, when Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood mounted a tough challenge of Reeves for the Governor’s Mansion, Cook moved its rating from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” on Sept. 27. Reeves defeated Hood 52% to 47%.

A key difference in this year’s race than four years ago, Taylor writes, is the possibility of a runoff election. A third 2023 gubernatorial candidate, independent Gwendolyn Gray, dropped out of the race in early October and endorsed Presley, but her announced exit came too late to be removed from the ballot. She could earn enough votes to keep Reeves or Presley from reaching 50%, which would push those two candidates to a Nov. 28 runoff election.

The alarms inside the Mississippi GOP are blaring, and Democrats feel like they have momentum. We said it yesterday and we’ll say it again today: Just 14 days from Election Day, there’s plenty of drama.

Headlines From The Trail

New governor’s race poll shows Reeves leading Presley by just one point

House Minority Leader Robert Johnson: Black turnout could be key in upcoming election

Mississippi governor’s race moves from Likely to Lean Republican

Delayed homicide autopsies pile up in Mississippi despite tough-on-crime-talk

Presley focuses on Black turnout as governor’s race enters final weeks

Presley, other statewide candidates engage crowd at NAACP forum

Poverty is among Mississippi voters’ main concerns in the upcoming election

Poll has Republican Gov. Tate Reeves leading challenger Brandon Presley by 1 point

Abortion is on the ballot in November. The outcome will shape 2024.

10 Medicaid holdout states scramble to improve health coverage

What We’re Watching

1) Both candidates are absolutely tearing up Mississippi’s less-than-stellar roads. Yesterday, Reeves made stops in Columbus, Macon and Noxubee County. Presley made stops in West Point, Meridian and Laurel.

2) What on earth happened at U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith’s home in Brookhaven on Sunday? Mississippi Today’s Bobby Harrison reported Monday that U.S. Secret Service is investigating after someone fired shots near her home. Gun rights and gun violence hasn’t been mentioned on the 2023 trail, but there’s two weeks left. Might the incident force the candidates into discussing a new issue?

3) Both Reeves and Presley will speak to the state’s top business leaders at the annual Hobnob lunch hosted by the Mississippi Economic Council on Oct. 26. It’s one of few venues where both candidates speak to the same room. They won’t be on stage together, but there could still be some fireworks.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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Mississippi Today

Podcast: Former auditor recalls his (authorized) government spending study

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mississippitoday.org – Adam Ganucheau, Bobby Harrison and Geoff Pender – 2024-12-30 06:30:00

Former Auditor Steve Patterson joins Mississippi Today’s Adam Ganucheau, Bobby Harrison and Geoff Pender to discuss a government waste study he conducted in the 1990s. Patterson draws contrasts between his 1990s study, which was legally authorized by the Legislature, and a highly scrutinized 2024 study from current Auditor Shad White, who did not get legislative authorization before spending $2 million.

READ MORE: As lawmakers look to cut taxes, Mississippi mayors and county leaders outline infrastructure needs

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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Mississippi Today

AG’s office clears most officer-involved shootings in law enforcement’s favor

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mississippitoday.org – Mina Corpuz – 2024-12-30 06:00:00

The Mississippi Attorney General’s office declined to prosecute and cleared law enforcement officers for their use of force in a third of all the officer shooting cases it resolved between 2023 and 2024.

There have been 65 officer shootings statewide since 2023, according to records maintained by the Department of Public Safety. That number can change through the end of the year if there are additional shootings or earlier ones are found not to be officer-involved. 

The attorney general’s office resolved about 40% of those cases, most of which have been declined prosecution. 

A spokesperson said the remaining cases are in various stages of review or the office hasn’t received the case file from the Mississippi Bureau of Investigation, which is responsible for looking into the cases.  

“Each case is different, including the complexity of the fact pattern, number of parties involved, and available evidence, and each case is reviewed thoroughly and independently,” spokesperson MaryAsa Lee said in a statement. “We seek to have a complete picture of the incident, considering all relevant facts and evidence.”

At least 30 people have died and at least 30 were injured, according to the DPS data, press releases by the agency and local news reporting. 

Most of the deaths and injuries since 2023 were of people who were the subject of a police call, but three law enforcement officers also died as well as two other victims. 

In nearly two years, 68 law enforcement agencies were involved in shootings, including police departments, sheriff’s offices, state agencies and federal agencies. 

The Jackson and Biloxi police departments each had four officer-involved shootings in 2023 and 2024, according to the data. Other departments and agencies across the state had two or one officer shooting. 

Details shared from press releases and local news reporting show several common themes in the shootings, including while officers respond to calls for help, during crimes in progress, while serving warrants and when a person shows a weapon. 

MBI has closed 40 of the cases between 2023 and 2024, according to the records by the DPS, the agency that oversees the bureau. 

For cases MBI closed, the average time between the shooting and submission of the case to the attorney general’s office is about 181 days, or nearly 5 ½ months. 

Twenty-four cases remain open by MBI, most of which are from shootings that happened in late 2023 or this year. 

Once cases are closed, they are submitted to the attorney general’s office, which handles prosecution and reviews use of force by officers who were involved in the shooting.

From there, it can take additional time for Fitch’s office to review the incident and determine whether the law enforcement officer’s use of force was justified. The office was given exclusive responsibility to prosecute law enforcement shootings starting in July 2022. 

“All of these cases are incredibly important, not only for the parties involved but also for the confidence of the public,” Lee, of the attorney general’s office, said. “Ultimately, by seeking truth and justice, we hope to bolster the credibility of our legal system and trust between the men and women of law enforcement and the communities in which they serve.”

The attorney general’s office declined to prosecute for 20 cases, meaning that the officers were justified in their use of force. 

Between 2023 and 2024, Fitch’s office brought one case to a grand jury: the case of an Indianola police officer accused of shooting an 11-year-old boy during a domestic incident in May 2023. Officers came to the boy’s home to help his mother with a former partner who became irate. 

In December 2023, a Sunflower County grand jury decided not to indict the officer, Sgt. Greg Capers. 

The attorney general’s office also presented another case to a grand jury in 2022, and that jury 

declined to indict. In that case, a Gulfport officer shot a 15-year-old outside a Family Dollar Store. Police and the family have offered varying accounts of events, and DPS released dashboard and body camera footage from the shooting from multiple points of view. 

Since 2023, Fitch’s office was able to secure one conviction: sentences for five former Rankin County sheriff’s deputies and a former Richland Police Department officer who called themselves the Goon Squad and tortured two Black men in January 2023. The officers pleaded guilty to state and federal charges and are incarcerated in federal prisons around the country. 

Indictments and convictions of law enforcement officers whose use of force results in death or injury are not common in Mississippi or around the country

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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Mississippi Today

On this day in 1865

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mississippitoday.org – Jerry Mitchell – 2024-12-29 07:00:00

Dec. 29, 1865

An 1837 copy of The Liberator Credit: Library of Congress

Months after the end of the Civil War, abolitionist leader William Lloyd Garrison produced the last issue of “The Liberator,” which he began publishing in 1831. 

In the first issue, he wrote, “I will be as harsh as truth, and as uncompromising as justice. On this subject [of slavery], I do not wish to think, or speak, or write, with moderation. No! No! Tell a man whose house is on fire to give a moderate alarm; tell him to moderately rescue his wife from the hands of the ravisher; tell the mother to gradually extricate her babe from the fire into which it has fallen; —but urge me not to use moderation in a cause like the present. I am in earnest – I will not equivocate – I will not excuse – I will not retreat a single inch – and I will be heard.” 

His fight to end slavery emanated from his deep faith, and he envisioned a world beyond bondage: “My Bible assures me that the day is coming when even the ‘wolf shall dwell with the lamb, and the leopard shall lie down with the kid, and the wolf and the young lion and the fatling together’; if this be possible, I see no cause why those of the same species—God’s rational creatures—fellow countrymen, in truth, cannot dwell in harmony together.” 

Garrison worked, too, with the Underground Railroad and Harriet Tubman, whom he nicknamed “Moses.” 

When the day came to celebrate the nation’s independence in 1854, Garrison and other members of the Massachusetts Anti-Slavery Society gathered for a picnic. He stood before them and chastised the U.S. Constitution, which regarded those enslaved as property, rather than people. He set a copy on fire and called it “a covenant with death and an agreement with hell.” He called for “amens” from the crowd, which exploded, “Amen!” 

A pro-slavery mob tried to lynch him and would have succeeded if some sympathizers hadn’t turned him over instead to authorities. A gallows was even erected outside his office, and he was burned in effigy. 

In addition to his work to end slavery, he became a leading advocate for women’s rights. With the last issue published, Garrison declared that his “vocation as an Abolitionist, thank God, has ended.” He continued to fight for the rights of African Americans and women. His works influenced Russian author Leo Tolstoy, Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King Jr. A memorial in Boston now honors Garrison.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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