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Redistricting gives Republicans chance to increase majorities

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Redistricting gives Republicans chance to increase legislative super majorities

have a reasonable of increasing their much ballyhooed super majorities, at least in the Mississippi House, in the 2023 elections based on the redrawing of the legislative districts earlier this year.

It might be more difficult for Republicans to increase their numbers in the Senate than in the House. Currently, 36 of the Senate’s 52 members and 77 of the House’s 122 members are Republican.

Not so long ago, there was a belief that a Democrat had at least an even-money chance of winning a white majority Mississippi legislative district with an African American population of 35% or more.

That most likely is no longer even money. Democrats have not been able to win statewide races in recent years even though the ‘s African American population is about 38%. Elections in Mississippi have become increasingly more polarized with white voters supporting Republicans and Black voters backing Democrats.

Despite that polarization making Republican majorities near inevitable, the Republican leadership has not provided many opportunities to garner evidence of whether Democrats can still win in legislative districts with Black population of at least 35%, but less than a majority. They have not drawn many districts meeting that criteria.

The redistricting plan drawn earlier his year for the 122-member House has two white majority districts with African American population of more than 35%, and both of those are barely above that threshold. Two more districts are just below 35%.

It is worth noting that in 2011, when Democrats still controlled the House, they drew a plan with 13 districts with a Black population of more than 35% but less than a majority. But that plan was never enacted. The Senate controlled by Republican Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant refused to take it up for a vote, violating the custom of each chamber rubber stamping the plan of the other house.

In the 52-member Senate, there were six districts with Black populations of more than 35% but less than a majority before this year’s redistricting. After redistricting there are four.

Carroll Rhodes, a Hazlehurst attorney and veteran of many redistricting battles, says the NAACP and other groups are still deciding whether to file a challenging the redistricting maps approved this on the grounds they dilute Black voter strength.

โ€œThere are additional districts to be created for Black voters to elect candidates of their choice,โ€ Rhodes said recently.

Rhodes and other attorneys believe strongly that districts should be drawn in such a manner to ensure that they represent the racial demographics of the state. Under the current plan, 29% of the Senate districts and 34% of the House districts are Black majority. Based on the 2020 U.S. Census, the state’s African American and partially African American population is 38%, while the white population is 59%.

Rhodes added, though, that the districts should not be drawn in such a manner โ€œto pack Black votersโ€ โ€” 75%, 80% or more in many instances โ€” into districts to prevent them from influence in other districts.

He believes that is what the House and Senate did in the redistricting plan drawn in the 2022 legislative session.

There are currently two white Democrats in the House representing white majority districts. District 33, represented by Democrat Tommy Reynolds, has a Black population of about 44%, perhaps ideal for a rural white Democrat. Reynolds is not running for re-election and his district is being moved to the fast growing Coast where it will have a Black population of about 25%.

The other white Democrat from a white majority district in the House, Tom Miles of Forest, is something of an anomaly. He was elected from a district with a Black population of about 26%. His new district will have similar demographics, but the Republican House leadership is moving his district partially into more Republican friendly Madison County.

Miles has hung on despite long odds in past elections.

The upcoming 2023 elections will determine whether he can do it again or whether his new district will result in more growth for the Republican supermajority.

Based on the 2022 redistricting effort, there is a possibility after the 2023 elections that there will not be any white Democrats in the House representing white majority districts.

In the Senate, Hob , D-Amory, is currently the lone white Democrat representing a white majority district. Bryan’s new district actually will be slightly more advantageous to his re-election effort in terms of having a higher percentage of Black voters.

After the 2023 elections, Bryan could be the only legislator left standing, re-enforcing that old belief that Democrats have a good chance of winning white majority districts with African American populations of at least 35%.

Perhaps Democrats can find candidates to prove these numbers wrong in 2023.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

Mississippi News

Mississippi sees 5th largest increase in fatal crashes: study

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www.wjtv.com – Garret Grove – 2024-11-02 12:25:00

SUMMARY: A recent study highlights a troubling rise in road fatalities in Mississippi, with a nearly 31% increase in fatal accidents from 2012 to 2021, ranking it fifth highest in the country. The reported a spike during the 2024 Labor Day , responding to seven fatal crashes resulting in 15 deaths, to only three crashes and six deaths in 2021. Additionally, a 2023 showed Mississippi had the highest per capita fatal crashes during the Christmas period. Young drivers are particularly affected, as Mississippi ranks fifth for teenage driving fatalities nationwide.

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Mississippi News

Vicksburg man charged with assaulting woman in domestic dispute

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www.wjtv.com – Kaitlin Howell – 2024-11-02 11:33:00

SUMMARY: In Vicksburg, Mississippi, a domestic assault led to the hospitalization of a man and woman on November 2. were alerted by Merit Region after a 28-year-old man, Daron Evans, arrived with a stab wound. Authorities dispatched to the scene found the woman, who had also been assaulted. After receiving treatment, Evans was and charged with aggravated assault domestic violence; he is held without bond until his court appearance. The woman is in stable at the . An investigation is ongoing.

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Mississippi News

Cloudy and humid weekend – Home – WCBI TV

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www.wcbi.com – Sadie Morris – 2024-11-02 10:13:00

SUMMARY: In Columbus, Mississippi, humid and cloudy weather is expected, with temperatures remaining above average in the lower 80s for the upcoming . Rain is forecasted for Election Day on Tuesday, continuing into the week with isolated showers likely. This Saturday will see patchy fog in the morning, clearing by midday, with a high around 80 degrees. Sunday will bring similar humidity, with a high in the lower 80s and mild overnight lows in the mid-60s. Throughout the week, expect persistent clouds and humidity alongside mild temperatures.

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