Mississippi Today
Presley needs to reverse Hood’s 2019 northeast Mississippi results to have a chance
Democrat Brandon Presley’s task of defeating incumbent Republican Gov. Tate Reeves in the November general election seems insurmountable.
After all, a Republican has won seven of the last eight gubernatorial elections and that lone Democratic victory came way back in 1999.
To further hammer home the point, a Democratic nominee for president has not won Mississippi since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
In 2019, Reeves defeated his Democratic opponent – four-term Attorney General Jim Hood – by a little more than 5% or about 45,000 votes.
Even though history over the last three decades or so paints a bleak picture for Presley’s prospects, recent statewide election results might provide a glimmer of hope.
That glimmer can be gleaned, at least in part, from the fact that Hood and Presley are both native sons of northeast Mississippi.
While northeast Mississippi was once a power base for the so-called rural white Democrats, the party’s standing in the area has declined dramatically over the last 20 years or more. Even during that Democratic decline, though, the area remained loyal to native son Hood through four successful elections for attorney general.
But in his 2019 gubernatorial election defeat, Hood garnered about 12,500 less votes in the 10 most extreme northeast Mississippi counties than he did in his last race for attorney general against former Republican U.S. attorney Mike Hurst in 2015. And perhaps more importantly, in 2011 Hood won 26,000 votes more in those 10 counties against former Public Safety Commissioner Steve Simpson than he did against Reeves in 2019.
Presley, who has been on the ballot for the post of Northern District Public Service commissioner four times in those counties, would need to replicate the success Hood had in his elections for attorney general. And it would help if he could replicate Hood’s 2011 effort opposed to his 2015 showing.
In reality, Presley’s showing in those 10 northeast Mississippi counties in his Public Service commission races was as strong or stronger than Hood’s. But it should be pointed out that during those elections the state Republican Party apparatus put much more of an emphasis on defeating Hood, who was Mississippi’s only statewide elected Democrat for 12 years, than it did on defeating a Northern District Public Service commissioner.
So, the point is that there are votes in those counties that both Hood and Presley got in the past, but that Hood did not capture in his 2019 bid against Reeves.
But even if Presley could repeat Hood’s 2011 showing in those 10 counties based on the margin of victory Reeves had in 2019, Presley still would be about 19,000 votes short of victory.
Perhaps the state Democratic Party is to the point of getting excited about close losses. Presley, though, would not be welcoming of a moral victory.
But maybe there are more votes to be found.
Brad Chism, a Mississippi based Democratic consultant and pollster, based on his research at the time estimated that African Americans made up 31% of the total turnout in the 2019 governor’s election and 35% of the turnout in the first Mike Espy-Cindy Hyde-Smith U.S. Senate election in 2018.
So, in other words, if Presley could repeat past Democratic glories in northeast Mississippi and get African Americans, who tend to vote Democratic in Mississippi, to vote at the Espy-Hyde-Smith election levels, there would perhaps be a path to victory for Presley.
There might be other paths to victory for Presley, but the bottom line is that all of those paths are narrow and rocky.
And most likely, a combination of Black voter turnout and a stronger showing in northeast Mississippi is the less rocky path.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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Mississippi Today
On this day in 1815
Jan. 8, 1815
A U.S. Army unit that included Black and Choctaw soldiers helped defeat the British in the Battle of New Orleans.
While peace negotiations to end the War of 1812 were underway, the British carried out a raid in hopes of capturing New Orleans. After the British captured a gunboat flotilla, Maj. Gen. Andrew Jackson put the city under martial law.
Despite being outnumbered, the U.S. Army force of about 2,000 (including a battalion of free Black men, mostly refugees from Santo Domingo, and up to 60 Choctaw Indians) defeated the British.
After the victory, Andrew Jackson honored these soldiers of color with a proclamation: “I invited you to share in the perils and to divide the glory of your white countrymen. I expected much from you, for I was not uninformed of those qualities which must render you so formidable to an invading foe. I knew that you could endure hunger and thirst and all the hardships of war. I knew that you loved the land of your nativity, and that, like ourselves, you had to defend all that is most dear to man – But you surpass my hopes. I have found in you, united to these qualities, that noble enthusiasm which impels to great deeds.”
Prior to the battle, Jackson had promised Black soldiers pay, acres of property and freedom to those who were enslaved. That inspired James Roberts to fight as hard as he could in the Battle of New Orleans.
“In hope of freedom,” he said, “we would run through a troop and leap over a wall.”
Although Roberts would lose a finger and suffer a serious wound to the head, the pledge proved hollow for him, just as it was in the Revolutionary War when he had been promised freedom and instead was separated from his wife and children and sold for $1,500.
The memoir he self-published in 1858 is once again available for sale.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
Photos: Lawmakers gavel in for 2025 Mississippi legislative session
The Mississippi Legislature returned to the State Capitol on Tuesday for the start of the legislative session in Jackson.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
Billionaire Tommy Duff forms Republican PAC as he weighs gubernatorial run
Billionaire Tommy Duff, as he considers a run for Mississippi governor in 2027, has formed a political action committee to help elect Republicans to city and legislative offices this year, likely to increase his influence as a political powerbroker.
Jordan Russell, a longtime Republican operative who has led several federal and state campaigns, is director of the PAC, which was formed in December.
Russell told Mississippi Today in a statement that Duff founded the PAC to support conservative candidates and advance policies that promote “opportunities, freedom, faith-based values and prosperity across Mississippi.”
“We are planning a significant investment in multiple races in our state to ensure strong, conservative leadership at every level of government,” Russell said.
Duff, a Hattiesburg resident and the co-wealthiest Mississippian along with his brother Jim, has been involved in state politics for decades, but mostly behind the scenes as a megadonor and philanthropist. He recently finished an eight-year stint on the state Institutions of Higher Learning Board, first appointed by former Gov. Phil Bryant.
READ MORE: Will a Mississippi billionaire run for governor in the poorest state?
He’s travelled around the state in recent months meeting with political and business leaders, potentially laying the groundwork for a gubernatorial run. Duff also appeared at last year’s Neshoba County Fair and made the rounds at the state’s premiere political gathering.
Duff and his brother turned a small, struggling company into Southern Tire Mart, the nation’s largest truck tire dealer and retread manufacturer. They created Duff Capitol Investors, the largest privately held business in Mississippi, with ownership in more than 20 companies, including KLLM Transport, TL Wallace Construction and Southern Insurance Group.
Duff has recently said he’s still weighing a run for governor, but his creation of a PAC that could garner support from many down-ticket Republicans would appear to be a concrete step in that direction. Duff’s entrance into a gubernatorial race would likely cause numerous potential candidates — particularly those who have looked to him for large campaign donations — to wave off.
While statewide elections are still two years away, municipal elections will take place this year and several special legislative races will happen as well.
Rep. Charles Young, Jr., a Democrat from Meridian, died on December 19, and Rep. Andy Stepp, a Republican from Bruce, died on December 5. Sen. Jenifer Branning, a Republican from Philadelphia, was sworn into office yesterday for a seat on the Mississippi Supreme Court. Special elections will take place later this year to fill these vacancies.
A federal three-judge panel also ruled last year that the Legislature must create new state Senate and House maps with Black-majority districts and conduct special elections in 2025 under those newly created districts.
The court ordered legislators to create a majority-Black Senate district in the DeSoto County area in north Mississippi and one in the Hattiesburg area in south Mississippi. The panel also ruled the state must create a majority-Black House district in the Chickasaw County area in northeast Mississippi.
However, the Legislature will also have to tweak many districts in the state to accommodate for the new Black-majority maps. State officials in court filings have argued that the redrawing would affect a quarter of the state’s 174 legislative districts.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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