(The Center Square) – A key pledge of President Donald Trump’s energy policy is to “unleash American energy,” make the U.S. energy industry dominant, and “drill, baby, drill.”
His Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, the former CEO of Denver-based Liberty Energy, also vowed that Trump’s energy policies would create a “golden age” for the U.S. oil and natural gas industry.
Within the first few months of Trump’s new administration, the opposite has been true, with layoffs increasing, rig counts dropping, and industry executives expressing alarm.
After Trump was reelected, “the initial mood in the industry was euphoric” because the industry believed the administration was “pro-energy,” Odessa-based Latigo Petroleum president Kirk Edwards said. “But within the first few months, a different set of challenges emerged. Tariffs have driven up the cost of drilling, squeezing margins just as operators look to expand.”
The Trump administration pushing OPEC to increase production in an already oversupplied global market contributed to oil prices plummeting. “This sharp price decline has thrown U.S. producers into limbo,” Edwards said. Trump’s mantra, “Drill, baby, drill,” turned into “wait, baby, wait,” he said. As a result, the industry isn’t adding rigs to drill when “price signals are so unclear,” The Center Square reported.
The rig count has dropped under the Trump administration, with the biggest losses reported in Texas, the oil and natural gas capital of the U.S. As of March 28, there were 290 rigs in Texas, down from 376 in March 2024, according to newly released Baker Hughes data.
“The U.S. shale industry faces significant challenges as production issues and economic pressures rise,” Linhua Guan, CEO of Houston-based Surge Energy, said in a social media post. He also published the results of a poll showing that the majority surveyed believed the U.S. crude oil production would plateau this decade.
Pioneer Natural Resources Founder Scott Sheffield warned that Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” mantra “might not happen.” Sheffield set a grim picture for the industry in Houston, saying “You’ve really got to hunker down. You may have to lay off some people. You’ve got to focus on your best prospects. We’ll see what happens over the next two or three years,” Bloomberg News reported.
Since then, oil prices keep dropping. The West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for U.S. crude, was at $63.92 a barrel on Tuesday, below the $65 threshold companies need to break even. That’s down from the $80 a barrel the WTI was posting in early January.
The Texas oil and natural gas industry in the last two years reported record production and for many months was adding jobs and leading the U.S. in job creation, The Center Square reported. In March, it reported a loss of 700 jobs in the upstream sector – the sector that drills primarily in the oil rich Permian Basin, The Center Square reported.
Also last month, BP announced it was shedding 7,700 jobs globally and shifting roughly 1,100 U.S. based jobs to Hungary, India and Malaysia, Pipeline & Gas Journal reported. BP currently employs roughly 4,000 people in Houston, the oil and natural gas capital of Texas and the U.S. where BP’s U.S. headquarters is located.
In February, Chevron announced it was laying off up to 20% of its global workforce by the end of 2026. In January, Houston-based APA, the parent company of Apache Corporation, announced it was laying off nearly 300 employees globally; by February, it had reduced its corporate office by one-third, The Houston Chronicle reported. More layoffs are expected in Texas, industry executives have told The Center Square.
Uncertainty in the industry continued after Liberty Energy published its first quarterly earnings report showing a profit of $165 million, the lowest since the first quarter of 2022. “Net income (after taxes) totaled $20 million for the first quarter of 2025 compared to $82 million in the first quarter of 2024 and $52 million in the fourth quarter of 2024,” it said.
Its new CEO Ron Guzek said, “In recent months, tariff announcements and a more aggressive OPEC+ production strategy have sent ripples across the energy sector.” He told investors and media on a call, “As we look forward, of course, there are some storm clouds on the horizon. We don’t know if that storm is going to roll in here or not.”
“As global oil markets contend with tariff impacts, geopolitical tensions, and oil supply concerns, North American producers are evaluating a range of macroeconomic scenarios,” the company’s outlook states. “The recent pause on tariffs has momentarily eased pressure on the global economy, and in turn, global oil demand concerns. However, markets remain focused on supply side dynamics, including the evolving OPEC+ production strategy and potential constraints on Iranian, Russian, and Venezuelan oil exports.”
Since Trump’s been in office, Liberty’s stock has plummeted by 40%.
U.S. oil and gas executives are overall expressing pessimism, according to a Dallas Fed survey. The company outlook index decreased by 12 points; the outlook uncertainty index increased by 21 points.
