Mississippi Today
Poll shows Mississippians strongly favor Presley’s ideas but he still trails in governor’s race
A new Siena College/Mississippi Today poll, conducted April 16-20, illustrates the complexity and internal conflict of the state’s electorate.
Take, for instance, one of the biggest issues of the 2023 governor’s race: Medicaid expansion. Based on the poll results, 55% of respondents say they “will only vote for a candidate” who supports expanding Medicaid. A meager 14% say they would only vote for a candidate opposed to Medicaid expansion.
Republican Gov. Tate Reeves has made it clear that he staunchly opposes Medicaid expansion, which he refers to as Obamacare. Meanwhile, Northern District Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, a Democrat who is challenging Reeves in November, has built much of his campaign around his support of expanding Medicaid to provide health care coverage to primarily the working poor.
But the same poll respondents who say by a strong majority they would only vote for a candidate supporting Medicaid expansion give incumbent Reeves a commanding 49% to 38% lead over Presley. It is important to understand that Siena did not just call a random group of people — 783 on cell phones and landlines — to garner these responses. This is a scientific poll that is weighted to match the likely demographics of voters in the November general election and in theory represents a snapshot of what the electorate is thinking.
And Siena is a good pollster, rated the best public pollster in America recently by the FiveThirtyEight blog, which breaks down and analyzes data.
READ MORE: Governor’s race poll: Brandon Presley slips, Gov. Tate Reeves remains unpopular
But there are conflicts in the Siena poll. Pollsters ask direct questions of whether a candidate’s position on an issue would impact their votes. Though time and again respondents’ answers were bad for Reeves, he is leading comfortably against Presley in the head-to-head race.
For instance, 58% say they “will only vote for a candidate that supports fully funding public education in Mississippi through the Mississippi Adequate Education Program or MAEP.” MAEP is the program that provides the state’s share of the needs for public schools.
Hardly no one, just 5%, said they would only vote for a candidate who opposes full funding of the Adequate Education Program. Reeves not only opposes MAEP, but tried to eliminate it.
The list goes on.
For instance, 58% say they would only vote for a candidate who supports eliminating Mississippi’s highest in the nation state-imposed grocery tax, while 7% say they would only vote for a candidate opposed to eliminating the tax.
On the other hand, less than a majority — 45% — say they would only vote for a candidate who supports eliminating the income tax while 17% would only vote for a candidate opposed to the income tax elimination.
Presley is campaigning on the more politically popular elimination of the grocery tax.
Reeves, on the other hand, has been an outspoken advocate for the less politically popular, according to the poll, elimination of the income tax.
The issue of transgender rights is shaping up as possibly another key issue. Top Mississippi Republicans have already tried to link Presley this year to national Democrats on the issue.
But according to the poll, it is not a winning issue. Just 35% said they would only vote for a candidate who supports “maintaining the ban on gender affirming care for transgender youth,” while a near even 31% would only vote for a candidate opposed to maintaining the ban.
On another issue, 35% say they would only vote for a candidate who supports restoring the initiative to allow voters to gather signatures to bypass the Legislature and place issues on the ballot, while 7% say they would only vote for a candidate opposing the process.
Both Reeves and Presley say they support restoring the ballot initiative that was ruled invalid by the Supreme Court on a technicality in 2021. Presley, though, has been challenging Reeves to call a special session for legislators to restore the process.
Like other polls, this most recent one strongly indicates that Presley is winning on key issues. Still, according to Siena and other surveys, Presley would lose if the election was held this month.
Mississippi is a Republican state. Many Mississippians solely vote Republican or at least weigh all the issues and determine the overall beliefs of the Republicans are what they support despite what they might tell a pollster.
Remember, Mississippi has not elected a Democratic governor or lieutenant governor since 1999.
Presley’s chore — and it is a hard one — is to convince Mississippians that the issues are more important than party labels. Reeves’ chore — a much easier one — is to remind a majority of Mississippians they do not like Democrats.
The Mississippi Today/Siena College Research Institute poll of 783 registered voters was conducted April 16-20 and has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points. Siena has an ‘A’ rating in FiveThirtyEight’s analysis of pollsters.
Click here for complete methodology and crosstabs relevant to this story.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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Mississippi Today
An ad supporting Jenifer Branning finds imaginary liberals on the Mississippi Supreme Court
The Improve Mississippi PAC claims in advertising that the state Supreme Court “is in danger of being dominated by liberal justices” unless Jenifer Branning is elected in Tuesday’s runoff.
Improve Mississippi made the almost laughable claim in both radio commercials and mailers that were sent to homes in the court’s central district, where a runoff election will be held on Tuesday.
Improve Mississippi is an independent, third party political action committee created to aid state Sen. Jenifer Branning of Neshoba County in her efforts to defeat longtime Central District Supreme Court Justice Jim Kitchens of Copiah County.
The PAC should receive an award or at least be considered for an honor for best fiction writing.
At least seven current members of the nine-member Supreme Court would be shocked to know anyone considered them liberal.
It is telling that the ads do not offer any examples of “liberal” Supreme Court opinions issued by the current majority. It is even more telling that there have been no ads by Improve Mississippi or any other group citing the liberal dissenting opinions written or joined by Kitchens.
Granted, it is fair and likely accurate to point out that Branning is more conservative than Kitchens. After all, Branning is considered one of the more conservative members of a supermajority Republican Mississippi Senate.
As a member of the Senate, for example, she voted against removing the Confederate battle emblem from the Mississippi state flag, opposed Medicaid expansion and an equal pay bill for women.
And if she is elected to the state Supreme Court in Tuesday’s runoff election, she might be one of the panel’s more conservative members. But she will be surrounded by a Supreme Court bench full of conservatives.
A look at the history of the members of the Supreme Court might be helpful.
Chief Justice Michael Randolph originally was appointed to the court by Republican Gov. Haley Barbour, who is credited with leading the effort to make the Republican Party dominant in Mississippi. Before Randolph was appointed by Barbour, he served a stint on the National Coal Council — appointed to the post by President Ronald Reagan who is considered an icon in the conservative movement.
Justices James Maxwell, Dawn Beam, David Ishee and Kenneth Griffis were appointed by Republican Gov. Phil Bryant.
Only three members of the current court were not initially appointed to the Supreme Court by conservative Republican governors: Kitchens, Josiah Coleman and Robert Chamberlin. All three got their initial posts on the court by winning elections for full eight-year terms.
But Chamberlin, once a Republican state senator from Southaven, was appointed as a circuit court judge by Barbour before winning his Supreme Court post. And Coleman was endorsed in his election effort by both the Republican Party and by current Republican Gov. Tate Reeves, who also contributed to his campaign.
Only Kitchens earned a spot on the court without either being appointed by a Republican governor or being endorsed by the state Republican Party.
The ninth member of the court is Leslie King, who, like Kitchens, is viewed as not as conservative as the other seven justices. King, former chief judge on the Mississippi Court of Appeals, was originally appointed to the Supreme Court by Barbour, who to his credit made the appointment at least in part to ensure that a Black Mississippian remained on the nine-member court.
It should be noted that Beam was defeated on Nov. 5 by David Sullivan, a Gulf Coast municipal judge who has a local reputation for leaning conservative. Even if Sullivan is less conservative when he takes his new post in January, there still be six justices on the Supreme Court with strong conservative bonafides, not counting what happens in the Branning-Kitchens runoff.
Granted, Kitchens is next in line to serve as chief justice should Randolph, who has been on the court since 2004, step down. The longest tenured justice serves as the chief justice.
But to think that Kitchens as chief justice would be able to exert enough influence to force the other longtime conservative members of the court to start voting as liberals is even more fiction.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
On this day in 1968
Nov. 24, 1968
Black Panther leader Eldridge Cleaver fled the U.S. to avoid imprisonment on a parole violation. He wrote in “Soul on Ice”: “If a man like Malcolm X could change and repudiate racism, if I myself and other former Muslims can change, if young whites can change, then there is hope for America.”
The Arkansas native began to be incarcerated when he was still in junior high and soon read about Malcolm X. He began writing his own essays, drawing the praise of Norman Mailer and others. That work helped him win parole in 1966. His “Soul on Ice” memoir, written from Folsom state prison, described his journey from selling marijuana to following Malcolm X. The book he wrote became a seminal work in Black literature, and he became a national figure.
Cleaver soon joined the Black Panther Party, serving as the minister of information. After a Panther shootout with police that left him injured, one Panther dead and two officers wounded, he jumped bail and fled the U.S. In 1977, after an unsuccessful suicide attempt, he returned to the U.S. pleaded guilty to a reduced charge of assault and served 1,200 hours of community service.
From that point forward, “Mr. Cleaver metamorphosed into variously a born-again Christian, a follower of the Rev. Sun Myung Moon, a Mormon, a crack cocaine addict, a designer of men’s trousers featuring a codpiece and even, finally, a Republican,” The New York Times wrote in his 1998 obituary. His wife said he was suffering from mental illness and never recovered.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
On this day in 1867
Nov. 23, 1867
The Louisiana Constitutional Convention, composed of 49 White delegates and 49 Black delegates, met in New Orleans. The new constitution became the first in the state’s history to include a bill of rights.
The document gave property rights to married women, funded public education without segregated schools, provided full citizenship for Black Americans, and eliminated the Black Codes of 1865 and property qualifications for officeholders.
The voters ratified the constitution months later. Despite the document, prejudice and corruption continued to reign in Louisiana, and when Reconstruction ended, the constitution was replaced with one that helped restore the rule of white supremacy.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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