Mississippi Today
Poll highlights conservative tilt that impacts Mississippi elections
Based on polling, more people identify as conservative in Mississippi than in any state in the nation.
According to Gallup, which routinely does extensive polling asking people to self-identify as liberal, conservative or moderate, 50% of Mississippians say they are conservative while only 12% say they are liberal in one of the recent polls.
The poll results encapsulate the difficulty facing Democrats in winning elections in Mississippi. In general, white Mississippians who identify as conservative vote Republican. The same might not always be true for Black Mississippi conservatives, who often remain loyal to the Democratic Party based at least in part on the opposition of some in the Republican Party to voting rights and other integration efforts beginning in the 1960s.
Those poll results highlight the headwinds facing Democratic candidates, such as Brandon Presley who is vying this year to be the first Democrat elected governor since 1999.
And the poll results provide insight as to why Democratic candidates, sometimes to the chagrin of Mississippi’s small but vocal liberal community, often campaign as conservative on various issues. The argument that Mississippi Democrats would win if they only campaigned as true Democrats, i.e. liberal Democrats, loses much of its validity when considering the voters of the state.
Based on the poll, Mississippi is the nation’s only state where a majority of its people identify as conservative. Mississippi’s four contiguous states also are among the 10 most conservative, with Alabama being No. 2 with 46% of its population identifying as being conservative and 14% as liberal. All of the top 10 most conservative states have Republican governors and legislatures.
It is important to note that when it comes to actual voting, Mississippi is high but not in the top 10 in terms of the percentage of its population voting for the Republican candidate. Mississippi had a lower percentage voting for Donald Trump for president than did the contiguous states of Louisiana, Tennessee, Arkansas and Alabama. What is unique is that based on studies by the FiveThirtyEight blog, which compiles and analyzes data, Mississippi voters are the least persuadable in the country. In other words, it is more difficult to convince people who normally vote Republican to vote Democratic and vice versa.
Is it a surprise that Mississippians are set in their ways?
Despite the daunting data, many in recent years have speculated that Mississippi might be in line to follow Georgia, North Carolina or even Texas and become more electorally competitive. Remember Georgia now has two Democratic U.S. senators, and by a narrow margin voted for Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. President Barack Obama won North Carolina.
With the nation’s highest percentage of African American residents (about 38%), many surmise that Mississippi will be the next Southern state to enter swing state status.
A 2021 article in Politico titled, “The Southern state where Black voters are gaining in numbers, but not power,” argued that Mississippi is not — at least not yet — entering swing state status. The article pointed out that Mississippi does not have the population centers and large college-educated suburbs that have trended toward the Democratic Party.
But the article did cite a little hope for Mississippi Democrats. DeSoto County, for years considered one of the state’s bedrock Republican areas, ranked 30th in the nation of counties that swung toward the Democrats in 2020. DeSoto County still voted for Donald Trump, but the drop in Trump votes from 2016 to 2020 was significant.
In 2016, Trump won DeSoto County by 67% to 31%. In 2020, Trump won 61% to 37%. Hey, DeSoto County still went big-time Republican, but the Democratic inroads in the Memphis suburban county in northwest Mississippi did garner some national attention.
Democrats also performed better in 2020 than in the 2016 presidential election in what has been another Republican suburban stronghold: Madison County.
And one year earlier in 2019, former Attorney General Jim Hood became the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate to win Madison County since 1987. The south Madison County area has a high number of college-educated suburban voters who have tilted Democratic in other areas of the nation in recent election.
While the Hood performance in Madison County provided a glimmer of hope for Mississippi Democrats, it is still worth noting the area still tilts conservative. South Madison County is home of the largest congregation in the state to leave the United Methodist Church because the local church members viewed the denomination as too liberal.
In other words, Mississippians of a broad spectrum of class and education level view themselves as conservative.
That is the headwind Mississippi Democrats will be facing this November.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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Mississippi Today
On this day in 1997
Dec. 22, 1997
The Mississippi Supreme Court upheld the conviction of white supremacist Byron De La Beckwith for the 1963 murder of Medgar Evers.
In the court’s 4–2 decision, Justice Mike Mills praised efforts “to squeeze justice out of the harm caused by a furtive explosion which erupted from dark bushes on a June night in Jackson, Mississippi.”
He wrote that Beckwith’s constitutional right to a speedy trial had not been denied. His “complicity with the Sovereignty Commission’s involvement in the prior trials contributed to the delay.”
The decision did more than ensure that Beckwith would stay behind bars. The conviction helped clear the way for other prosecutions of unpunished killings from the Civil Rights Era.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
Medicaid expansion tracker approaches $1 billion loss for Mississippi
About the time people ring in the new year next week, the digital tracker on Mississippi Today’s homepage tabulating the amount of money the state is losing by not expanding Medicaid will hit $1 billion.
The state has lost $1 billion not since the start of the quickly departing 2024 but since the beginning of the state’s fiscal year on July 1.
Some who oppose Medicaid expansion say the digital tracker is flawed.
During an October news conference, when state Auditor Shad White unveiled details of his $2 million study seeking ways to cut state government spending, he said he did not look at Medicaid expansion as a method to save money or grow state revenue.
“I think that (Mississippi Today) calculator is wrong,” White said. “… I don’t think that takes into account how many people are going to be moved off the federal health care exchange where their health care is paid for fully by the federal government and moved onto Medicaid.”
White is not the only Mississippi politician who has expressed concern that if Medicaid expansion were enacted, thousands of people would lose their insurance on the exchange and be forced to enroll in Medicaid for health care coverage.
Mississippi Today’s projections used for the tracker are based on studies conducted by the Institutions of Higher Learning University Research Center. Granted, there are a lot of variables in the study that are inexact. It is impossible to say, for example, how many people will get sick and need health care, thus increasing the cost of Medicaid expansion. But is reasonable that the projections of the University Research Center are in the ballpark of being accurate and close to other studies conducted by health care experts.
White and others are correct that Mississippi Today’s calculator does not take into account money flowing into the state for people covered on the health care exchange. But that money does not go to the state; it goes to insurance companies that, granted, use that money to reimburse Mississippians for providing health care. But at least a portion of the money goes to out-of-state insurance companies as profits.
Both Medicaid expansion and the health care exchange are part of the Affordable Care Act. Under Medicaid expansion people earning up to $20,120 annually can sign up for Medicaid and the federal government will pay the bulk of the cost. Mississippi is one of 10 states that have not opted into Medicaid expansion.
People making more than $14,580 annually can garner private insurance through the health insurance exchanges, and people below certain income levels can receive help from the federal government in paying for that coverage.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, legislation championed and signed into law by President Joe Biden significantly increased the federal subsidies provided to people receiving insurance on the exchange. Those increased subsidies led to many Mississippians — desperate for health care — turning to the exchange for help.
White, state Insurance Commissioner Mike Chaney, Gov. Tate Reeves and others have expressed concern that those people would lose their private health insurance and be forced to sign up for Medicaid if lawmakers vote to expand Medicaid.
They are correct.
But they do not mention that the enhanced benefits authored by the Biden administration are scheduled to expire in December 2025 unless they are reenacted by Congress. The incoming Donald Trump administration has given no indication it will continue the enhanced subsidies.
As a matter of fact, the Trump administration, led by billionaire Elon Musk, is looking for ways to cut federal spending.
Some have speculated that Medicaid expansion also could be on Musk’s chopping block.
That is possible. But remember congressional action is required to continue the enhanced subsidies. On the flip side, congressional action would most likely be required to end or cut Medicaid expansion.
Would the multiple U.S. senators and House members in the red states that have expanded Medicaid vote to end a program that is providing health care to thousands of their constituents?
If Congress does not continue Biden’s enhanced subsidies, the rates for Mississippians on the exchange will increase on average about $500 per year, according to a study by KFF, a national health advocacy nonprofit. If that occurs, it is likely that many of the 280,000 Mississippians on the exchange will drop their coverage.
The result will be that Mississippi’s rate of uninsured — already one of the highest in the nation – will rise further, putting additional pressure on hospitals and other providers who will be treating patients who have no ability to pay.
In the meantime, the Mississippi Today counter that tracks the amount of money Mississippi is losing by not expanding Medicaid keeps ticking up.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
On this day in 1911
Dec. 21, 1911
Josh Gibson, the Negro League’s “Home Run King,” was born in Buena Vista, Georgia.
When the family’s farm suffered, they moved to Pittsburgh, and Gibson tried baseball at age 16. He eventually played for a semi-pro team in Pittsburgh and became known for his towering home runs.
He was watching the Homestead Grays play on July 25, 1930, when the catcher injured his hand. Team members called for Gibson, sitting in the stands, to join them. He was such a talented catcher that base runners were more reluctant to steal. He hit the baseball so hard and so far (580 feet once at Yankee Stadium) that he became the second-highest paid player in the Negro Leagues behind Satchel Paige, with both of them entering the National Baseball Hame of Fame.
The Hall estimated that Gibson hit nearly 800 homers in his 17-year career and had a lifetime batting average of .359. Gibson was portrayed in the 1996 TV movie, “Soul of the Game,” by Mykelti Williamson. Blair Underwood played Jackie Robinson, Delroy Lindo portrayed Satchel Paige, and Harvey Williams played “Cat” Mays, the father of the legendary Willie Mays.
Gibson has now been honored with a statue outside the Washington Nationals’ ballpark.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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