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New governor’s race poll shows Reeves leading Presley by just one point

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Welcome to The Homestretch, a daily blog featuring the most comprehensive coverage of the 2023 Mississippi governor’s race. This page, curated by the Mississippi Today politics team, will feature the biggest storylines of the 2023 governor’s race at 7 a.m. every day between now and the Nov. 7 election.

If you’ve wondered why the Democratic Governors Association has pumped a historic amount of money into Brandon Presley’s 2023 campaign, you might get your answer later today.

The Washington-based organization that works to get Democratic governors elected will publicly release a poll today that shows Republican incumbent Gov. Tate Reeves leading Presley by just one point, according to a memo shared with Mississippi Today.

The poll shows Reeves leading Presley 46% to 45%, with nearly 10% still undecided 15 days from the election. The poll also shows that among those undecided voters, 68% have an unfavorable opinion of Reeves, while just 2% view him favorably.

If accurate, the poll also shows both candidates well below the 50%-plus-one threshold needed to avoid a runoff. A third candidate, independent Gwendolyn Gray, dropped out of the race in early October and endorsed Presley, but her announced exit came too late to be removed from the ballot. She could earn enough votes to keep Reeves or Presley from reaching 50%, which would push those two candidates to a Nov. 28 runoff election.

The Democratic Governors Association has pumped at least $3.75 million into Presley’s campaign this year, which is an unprecedented Mississippi investment from a single group affiliated with the national Democratic Party. That sum helped Presley out-raise Reeves over the past three months — a feat that very few political observers expected.

To add some context to this year’s DGA investment, the same group gave Democratic nominee Jim Hood just $2.4 million in his race against Reeves four years ago. And this year in neighboring Louisiana, one of two other states with a 2023 governor’s election, the DGA invested about $300,000 total.

A word of warning about this poll and any others you’ll see between now and November: ‘tis the season for skewed polling leaks. Given their investment in one candidate in the race, the uber-politically affiliated DGA could very well have reason to release numbers that don’t tell a complete picture.

But here’s what we do know: The poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling, a reputable North Carolina-based firm that has an A-minus rating from the industry standard FiveThirtyEight pollster rating service. This pollster, according to the memo shared with Mississippi Today, surveyed 601 Mississippi voters via a mix of text message and phone calls from October 19-20, and the margin of error is 4%.

There are reasons to buy this latest poll’s numbers. This new poll, like others before it, shows Reeves underwater on favorability. Of the new poll’s total respondents, according to the memo, 51% have an unfavorable opinion of Reeves and just 33% view him favorably.

Presley, on the other hand, has a marginal favorable rating among all the poll’s respondents (36% favorable to 31% unfavorable), but the poll memo shows the Democratic nominee still has a major name ID problem — something that also mirrors other public polling released earlier this year. In all, 32% of the poll’s respondents are unsure of their opinion of Presley.

The poll that shows neither candidate particularly close to the 50% mark also tracks with buzz among Republican and Democratic politicos over the past week or two. Political operatives on both sides in Mississippi continue to openly speculate about the runoff possibility. And both campaigns, according to several sources, are said to be preparing for the possibility of a three-week November sprint to the runoff election.

Accurate or not, this new DGA poll will rattle the state’s political ground and attract even more national attention to the race. Just 15 days out, there’s plenty of drama.

Headlines From The Trail

House Minority Leader Robert Johnson: Black turnout could be key in upcoming election

The racist origins of runoff elections, which Mississippi may see in November governor’s race

Just 16 days out, here are the biggest storylines of the Mississippi governor’s race

Democrat Brandon Presley looks ahead to the November election

Reeves vs. Presley: Hear from both Mississippi governor candidates ahead of November’s election

What We’re Watching

1) How low, exactly, is Republican enthusiasm? The concern is there among many politicos, but can Reeves leverage his many millions on ginning up the GOP base?

2) What will enthusiasm look like on the Democratic side? Presley is clearly targeting Black voters — the base of the Democratic Party. In the last three weekends, he’s gone to three different HBCU tailgates (Alcorn State two weeks ago, Jackson State last weekend, and Mississippi Valley State this weekend).

3) Can Presley win broader support in northeast Mississippi than Jim Hood did in 2019? It’s a region of the state that Trump won definitively and Reeves won handily four years ago. The Democratic nominee campaigned Sunday in northeast Mississippi.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

Mississippi Today

On this day in 1911

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mississippitoday.org – Jerry Mitchell – 2024-12-21 07:00:00

Dec. 21, 1911

A colorized photograph of Josh Gibson, who was playing with the Homestead Grays Credit: Wikipedia

Josh Gibson, the Negro League’s “Home Run King,” was born in Buena Vista, Georgia. 

When the family’s farm suffered, they moved to Pittsburgh, and Gibson tried baseball at age 16. He eventually played for a semi-pro team in Pittsburgh and became known for his towering home runs. 

He was watching the Homestead Grays play on July 25, 1930, when the catcher injured his hand. Team members called for Gibson, sitting in the stands, to join them. He was such a talented catcher that base runners were more reluctant to steal. He hit the baseball so hard and so far (580 feet once at Yankee Stadium) that he became the second-highest paid player in the Negro Leagues behind Satchel Paige, with both of them entering the National Baseball Hame of Fame. 

The Hall estimated that Gibson hit nearly 800 homers in his 17-year career and had a lifetime batting average of .359. Gibson was portrayed in the 1996 TV movie, “Soul of the Game,” by Mykelti Williamson. Blair Underwood played Jackie Robinson, Delroy Lindo portrayed Satchel Paige, and Harvey Williams played “Cat” Mays, the father of the legendary Willie Mays. 

Gibson has now been honored with a statue outside the Washington Nationals’ ballpark.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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Mississippi Today

On this day in 1958

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mississippitoday.org – Jerry Mitchell – 2024-12-20 07:00:00

Dec. 20, 1958

Bruce Boynton played a key role in the U.S. Supreme Court case that led to the Freedom Riders protests of 1961. Credit: Jay Reeves/Associated Press

Bruce Boynton was heading home on a Trailways bus when he arrived in Richmond, Virginia, at about 8 p.m. The 21-year-old student at Howard University School of Law — whose parents, Amelia Boynton Robinson and Sam Boynton, were at the forefront of the push for equal voting rights in Selma — headed for the restaurant inside the bus terminal. 

The “Black” section looked “very unsanitary,” with water on the floor. The “white” section looked “clinically clean,” so he sat down and asked a waitress for a cheeseburger and a tea. She asked him to move to the “Black” section. An assistant manager followed, poking his finger in his face and hurling a racial epithet. Then an officer handcuffed him, arresting him for trespassing. 

Boynton spent the night in jail and was fined $10, but the law student wouldn’t let it go. Knowing the law, he appealed, saying the “white” section in the bus terminal’s restaurant violated the Interstate Commerce Act. Two years later, the U.S. Supreme Court agreed. “Interstate passengers have to eat, and they have a right to expect that this essential transportation food service,” Justice Hugo Black wrote, “would be rendered without discrimination prohibited by the Interstate Commerce Act.” 

A year later, dozens of Freedom Riders rode on buses through the South, testing the law. In 1965, Boynton’s mother was beaten unconscious on the day known as “Bloody Sunday,” where law enforcement officials beat those marching across the Selma bridge in Alabama. The photograph of Bruce Boynton holding his mother after her beating went around the world, inspiring changes in voting rights laws. 

He worked the rest of his life as a civil rights attorney and died in 2020.

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This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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‘Something to be proud of’: Dual-credit students in Mississippi go to college at nation’s highest rate

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mississippitoday.org – Molly Minta – 2024-12-20 06:00:00

Mississippi high school students who take dual-credit courses go to college at the nation’s highest rate, according to a recent report. 

It’s generally true that students who take college classes while in high school attend college at higher rates than their peers. Earlier this year, a study from the Community College Research Center at Teacher’s College, Columbia University found that nationally, 81% of dual-credit students go to college. 

In Mississippi, that number shoots up to 93%, meaning the vast majority of the state’s high school students who take college classes enroll in a two- or four-year university. 

“When we did this ranking, boom, right to the top it went,” said John Fink, a senior research associate and program lead at the research center who co-authored the study. 

State officials say there’s likely no silver bullet for the high rate at which Mississippi’s dual-credit students enroll in college. Here, “dual credit” means a course that students can take for both high school and college credit. It’s different from “dual enrollment,” which refers to a high school student who is also enrolled at a community college. 

In the last 10 years, participation in these programs has virtually exploded among Mississippi high school students. In 2014, about 5,900 students took dual-credit courses in Mississippi, according to the Mississippi Community College Board. 

Now, it’s more than 18,000. 

“It reduces time to completion on the post-secondary level,” said Kell Smith, Mississippi C0mmunity College Board’s executive director. “It potentially reduces debt because students are taking classes at the community college while they’re still in high school, and it also just exposes high school students to what post-secondary course work is like.” 

“It’s something to be proud of,” he added. 

There are numerous reasons why Mississippi’s dual-credit courses have been attracting more and more students and helping them enroll in college at the nation’s highest rate, officials say. 

With a few college credits under their belt, students may be more inspired to go for a college degree since it’s closer in reach. Dual-credit courses can also build confidence in students who were on the fence about college without requiring them to take a high-stakes test in the spring. And the Mississippi Department of Education’s accountability model ensures that school districts are offering advanced courses like dual credit.

Plus, Mississippi’s 15 community colleges reach more corners of the state, meaning districts that may not be able to offer Advanced Placement courses can likely partner with a nearby community college.

“They’re sometimes like the only provider in many communities, and they’re oftentimes the most affordable providers,” Fink said.

Test score requirements can pose a barrier to students who want to take dual-credit courses, but that may be less of a factor in Mississippi. While the state requires students to score a 19 on ACT Math to take certain courses, which is above the state average, a 17 on the ACT Reading, below the state average of 17.9, is enough for other courses. 

Transportation is another barrier that many high schools have eliminated by offering dual-credit courses on their campuses, making it so students don’t have to commute to the community colleges to take classes. 

“They can leave one classroom, go next door, and they’re sitting in a college class,” said Wendy Clemons, the Mississippi Department of Education’s associate state superintendent for secondary education. 

This also means high school counselors can work directly with dual-credit students to encourage them to pursue some form of college.

“It is much less difficult to graduate and not go to college when you already possess 12 hours of credit,” Clemons said.

Word-of-mouth is just as key.

“First of all, I think parents and community members know more about it,” Clemons said, “They have almost come to expect it, in a way.” 

This all translates to benefits to students. Students who take dual-credit courses are more likely to finish college on time. They can save on student debt.

But not all Mississippi students are benefiting equally, Fink said. Thr research center’s report found that Black students in Mississippi and across the country were less likely to pursue dual-credit opportunities. 

“The challenge like we see in essentially every state is that who’s in dual enrollment is not really reflective of who’s in high school,” Fink said.

Without more study, it’s hard to say specifically why this disparity exists in Mississippi, but Fink said research has generally shown it stems from elitist beliefs about who qualifies for dual-credit courses. Test score requirements can be another factor, along with underresourced school districts. 

“The conventional thinking is (that) dual enrollment is just … another gifted-and-talented program?” Fink said. “It has all this baggage that is racialized … versus, are we thinking about these as opportunities for any high school student?”

Another factor may be the cost of dual-credit courses, which is not uniform throughout the state. Depending on where they live, some students may pay more for dual-credit courses depending on the agreements their school districts have struck with local community colleges and universities. 

This isn’t just an equity issue for students — it affects the institutions, too. 

“You know, we’ve seen that dual-credit at the community college level can be a double-edged sword,” Smith said. “We lose students who oftentimes … want to stay as long as they can, but there are only so many hours they can take at a community college. 

Dual-credit courses, which are often offered at a free or reduced price, can also result in less revenue to the college. 

“Dual credit does come at a financial price for some community colleges, because of the deeply discounted rates that they offer it,” Smith said. “The more students that you have taking dual-credit courses, the more the colleges can lose.” 

State officials are also working to turn the double-edged sword into a win-win for students and institutions. 

One promising direction is career-technical education. Right now, the vast majority of dual credit students enroll in academic courses, such as general education classes like Composition 1 or 2 that they will need for any kind of college degree. 

“CTE is far more expensive to teach,” Clemons said.

Smith hopes that state officials can work to offer more dual-credit career-technical classes. 

“If a student knows they want to enroll in career-tech in one of our community colleges, let’s load them up,” Smith said. “Those students are more likely to enter the workforce quicker. If you want to take the career-tech path, that’s your ultimate goal.”

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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