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Multiple goals, multiple solutions, plenty of second-guessing and revising − here’s how science really works

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theconversation.com – Soazig Le Bihan, Professor of Philosophy, University of Montana – 2024-08-07 07:34:12

If your mental image of a scientist looks like this, you’re due for an update.

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Soazig Le Bihan, University of Montana

A man in a lab coat bends under a dim light, his strained eyes riveted onto a microscope. He’s powered only by caffeine and anticipation.

This solitary scientist will stay on task until he unveils the truth about the cause of the dangerous disease quickly spreading through his vulnerable city. Time is short, the stakes are high, and only he can save everyone. …

That kind of romanticized picture of science was standard for a long time. But it’s as far from actual scientific practice as a movie’s choreographed martial arts battle is from a real fistfight.

For most of the 20th century, philosophers of science like me maintained somewhat idealistic claims about what good science looks like. Over the past few decades, however, many of us have revised our views to better mirror actual scientific practice.

An update on what to expect from actual science is overdue. I often worry that when the public holds science to unrealistic standards, any scientific claim failing to live up to them arouses suspicion. While public trust is globally strong and has been for decades, it has been eroding. In November 2023, Americans’ trust in scientists was 14 points lower than it had been just prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, with its flurry of confusing and sometimes contradictory science-related messages.

When people’s expectations are not met about how science works, they may blame scientists. But modifying our expectations might be more useful. Here are three updates I think can help people better understand how science actually works. Hopefully, a better understanding of actual scientific practice will also shore up people’s trust in the process.

The many faces of scientific research

First, science is a complex endeavor involving multiple goals and associated activities.

Some scientists search for the causes underlying some observable effect, such as a decimated pine forest or the Earth’s global surface temperature increase.

Others may investigate the what rather than the why of things. For example, ecologists build models to estimate gray wolf abundance in Montana. Spotting predators is incredibly challenging. Counting all of them is impractical. Abundance models are neither complete nor 100% accurate – they offer estimates deemed good enough to set harvesting quotas. Perfect scientific models are just not in the cards.

older woman holding pill bottle, medical worker in scrubs faces her

It can be tough enough to find treatments that mitigate symptoms, let alone gain a complete understanding of a disorder.

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Beyond the what and the why, scientists may focus on the how. For instance, the lives of people living with chronic illnesses can be improved by research on strategies for managing disease – to mitigate symptoms and improve function, even if the true causes of their disorders largely elude current medicine.

It’s understandable that some patients may grow frustrated or distrustful of medical providers unable to give clear answers about what causes their ailment. But it’s important to grasp that lots of scientific research focuses on how to effectively intervene in the world to reach some specific goals.

Simplistic views represent science as solely focused on providing causal explanations for the various phenomena we observe in this world. The truth is that scientists tackle all kinds of problems, which are best solved using different strategies and approaches and only sometimes involve full-fledged explanations.

Complex problems call for complex solutions

The second aspect of scientific practice worth underscoring is that, because scientists tackle complex problems, they don’t typically offer one unique, complete and perfect answer. Instead they consider multiple, partial and possibly conflicting solutions.

Scientific modeling strategies illustrate this point well. Scientific models typically are partial, simplified and sometimes deliberately unrealistic representations of a system of interest. Models can be physical, conceptual or mathematical. The critical point is that they represent target systems in ways that are useful in particular contexts of inquiry. Interestingly, considering multiple possible models is often the best strategy to tackle complex problems.

Scientists consider multiple models of biodiversity, atomic nuclei or climate change. Returning to wolf abundance estimates, multiple models can also fit the bill. Such models rely on various types of data, including acoustic surveys of wolf howls, genetic methods that use fecal samples from wolves, wolf sightings and photographic evidence, aerial surveys, snow track surveys and more.

Weighing the pros and cons of various possible solutions to the problem of interest is part and parcel of the scientific process. Interestingly, in some cases, using multiple conflicting models allows for better predictions than trying to unify all the models into one.

The public may be surprised and possibly suspicious when scientists push forward multiple models that rely on conflicting assumptions and make different predictions. People often think “real science” should provide definite, complete and foolproof answers to their questions. But given various limitations and the world’s complexity, keeping multiple perspectives in play is most often the best way for scientists to reach their goals and solve the problems at hand.

woman at podium with slides beside her, presenting to a room

Researchers present their work publicly at conferences and in journals so other scientists can learn from and critique it.

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Science as a collective, contrarian endeavor

Finally, science is a collective endeavor, where healthy disagreement is a feature, not a bug.

The romanticized version of science pictures scientists working in isolation and establishing absolute truths. Instead, science is a social and contrarian process in which the community’s scrutiny ensures we have the best available knowledge. “Best available” does not mean “definitive,” but the best we have until we find out how to improve it. Science almost always allows for disagreements among experts.

Controversies are core to how science works at its best and are as old as Western science itself. In the 1600s, Descartes and Leibniz fought over how to best characterize the laws of dynamics and the nature of motion.

The long history of atomism provides a valuable perspective on how science is an intricate and winding process rather than a fast-delivery system of results set in stone. As Jean Baptiste Perrin conducted his 1908 experiments that seemingly settled all discussion regarding the existence of atoms and molecules, the questions of the atom’s properties were about to become the topic of decades of controversies with the birth of quantum physics.

The nature and structure of fundamental particles and associated fields have been the subject of scientific research for more than a century. Lively academic discussions abound concerning the difficult interpretation of quantum mechanics, the challenging unification of quantum physics and relativity, and the existence of the Higgs boson, among others.

Distrusting researchers for having healthy scientific disagreements is largely misguided.

A very human practice

To be clear, science is dysfunctional in some respects and contexts. Current institutions have incentives for counterproductive practices, including maximizing publication numbers. Like any human endeavor, science includes people with bad intent, including some trying to discredit legitimate scientific research. Finally, science is sometimes inappropriately influenced by various values in problematic ways.

These are all important considerations when evaluating the trustworthiness of particular scientific claims and recommendations. However, it is unfair, sometimes dangerous, to mistrust science for doing what it does at its best. Science is a multifaceted endeavor focused on solving complex problems that typically just don’t have simple solutions. Communities of experts scrutinize those solutions in hopes of providing the best available approach to tackling the problems of interest.

Science is also a fallible and collective process. Ignoring the realities of that process and holding science up to unrealistic standards may result in the public calling science out and losing trust in its reliability for the wrong reasons.The Conversation

Soazig Le Bihan, Professor of Philosophy, University of Montana

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Rents rise faster after disasters, but a federal program can help restrain excesses

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theconversation.com – Anthony W. Orlando, Assistant Professor of Finance, Real Estate and Law, California State Polytechnic University, Pomona – 2025-01-14 13:02:00

Two people embrace on Jan. 9, 2025, in Altadena, Calif., amid property destroyed by the Eaton Fire.
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Anthony W. Orlando, California State Polytechnic University, Pomona

The wildfires raging across Los Angeles are setting the scene for a real estate nightmare.

Thousands of homes and other structures are destroyed and hundreds of thousands of residents have been evacuated at various times. Many will not return for months, if ever. Homeless in an instant, they are now flooding the housing market, desperately seeking shelter.

The Los Angeles housing market is poorly equipped for this crisis. It is already one of the nation’s most expensive markets to buy or rent a place to live, largely due to a significant and growing shortage of affordable housing. That shortage will become only more dire with the destruction of so many fire-ravaged buildings.

For the past two years, I have been studying the effects of natural disasters like this one on rental housing markets. As a professor of real estate, I have analyzed the question from a distance, sifting through data.

This time, however, as a resident of Pasadena, I have seen the carnage up close. I watched the Eaton Fire spread across the mountains from my back porch. I helped friends evacuate before their neighborhood was consumed in flames. Now, they’re sitting at my dining table as they process what they’ve lost and search for a new place to live.

Unfortunately, from my research, I have no doubts about what comes next.

Why disasters drive up rents

Scarcity is the enemy of affordability. This is one of the central tenets of economics. When too many people chase too few goods, prices rise.

So, you might expect that a natural disaster, which destroys housing and inundates the remaining units with new renters, would drive up rents, at least in the short run.

That is exactly what my research has found – but it’s not just the short run.

Two years ago, I worked with a team of researchers to prepare a report for the Brookings Institution, where we compiled a database of natural disasters across a variety of major markets throughout the country from 2000 to 2020. We measured the change in rents in places such as Atlanta, Detroit, Miami and San Francisco that landlords were asking for apartments in disaster-impacted neighborhoods. We then compared those cities with similar neighborhoods that weren’t impacted by the disasters.

We found that natural disasters increased rents during those two decades by 4% to 6%. That means rents were at least 4% higher than they would have been in the absence of the disaster.

These rent hikes were especially clear and pernicious after wildfires in California.

These weren’t just short-term effects. It took 18 months for the full effects to be felt in the market, and they never fully went away. Even four years after the disaster, renters were still paying 2% to 3% more than they would have been without the disaster.

In short, we found that disasters permanently change rental housing markets. They eliminate older, affordable housing, allowing developers to build newer, higher-end and even luxury housing in its place. Those changes drive up insurance costs, and the disasters motivate cities to adopt stricter building codes that in turn add to construction costs for the sake of weathering future disasters better.

How much rents increase, however, depends on how communities and the authorities respond to the disaster.

A burnt-out area following a big fire.
Burned homes are seen from above near the Los Angeles neighborhood of Pacific Palisades on Jan. 9, 2025, after massive fires engulfed whole neighborhoods and displaced thousands of people.
Josh Edelson AFP via Getty Images

Federal aid can slow the growth of rents

We found that rents did not grow as fast when the government stepped in to help.

Specifically, we investigated markets where Congress had used the Community Development Block Grant Disaster Recovery – CDBG-DR – program, providing grants through the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This federal funding typically comes with strings attached and “rental requirements” often mandating that a significant portion of the money be used to build affordable housing.

At least one of these disaster relief grants was issued every year from 2003 to 2020. In some years, Congress allocated as many as 27 different grants across the country to different disaster-impacted areas.

In these markets, we found that rents still rose after disasters – but at a significantly slower pace than in the markets where Congress didn’t send these disaster relief funds.

We dug deeper into several case studies in 2024 to understand why the CDBG-DR program is associated with lower rent hikes over the long run. In this new study, we found that housing markets that benefited from these disaster relief grants were able to build more rental units, easing the housing shortage. They improved affordability by tackling the scarcity problem directly.

Rental units were the key to solving the rent crisis. These cities, where affordability was better post-disaster, didn’t build more single-family homes than the other cities. They built more apartment units.

In these markets, these disaster relief grants saved the average renter between $780 and $1,080 in annual housing costs in 2023.

We believe that this finding shows why it is important not only to rebuild the houses destroyed in disasters like the Los Angeles fires but also to create new rental opportunities in all kinds of housing.

Hope in the aftermath

Here in Los Angeles, the clock is already ticking.

News reports are mounting of landlords raising rents to eye-popping levels.

Fortunately, there are government policies and programs that can help Angelenos find shelter today and that may help the Los Angeles housing market not get even less affordable tomorrow.The Conversation

Anthony W. Orlando, Assistant Professor of Finance, Real Estate and Law, California State Polytechnic University, Pomona

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How the CIA director helps the US navigate a world of spies, threats and geopolitical turbulence

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theconversation.com – Matthew Clary, Senior Lecturer in Political Science, Auburn University – 2025-01-14 12:44:00

The CIA is the U.S.’s premiere spy agency.
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Matthew Clary, Auburn University

Today, the United States is navigating an increasingly unsettled world. The positions advising the president on national security are as important as ever. One such position, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, is key to providing the president and Cabinet with timely intelligence and analysis.

So, what is the job of director of the CIA? What role does the director play in U.S. national security? How has the position changed over time?

The CIA’s role in national security

The CIA director leads the government agency responsible for conducting espionage and covert action. The CIA director is a Cabinet level position but reports to the director of national intelligence.

The CIA was established by the National Security Act of 1947 as America’s premiere civilian-led foreign intelligence agency. The agency carries out espionage and covert action exclusively outside the U.S.

The CIA is organized into five directorates – analysis, operations, science and technology, digital innovation, and support – and 11 regional and topical mission centers. The number of CIA employees is classified.

Espionage activities include the use of spies tasked with collecting useful information from influential people in countries around the world. This information, referred to as human intelligence, often provides depth and context about threats posed to the U.S.

In addition to collecting intelligence, the CIA analyzes and interprets it. The agency employees thousands of expert analysts who assess the information’s implications for U.S. national security. It is this in-depth analysis that is often presented to the president and Cabinet to inform their decision-making.

Covert action is an activity intended to influence political, economic or military conditions abroad without the role of the U.S. being apparent. Such actions include programs such as disinformation campaigns, counterterrorism operations and military raids such as the one used to kill 9/11 attack organizer Osama bin Laden.

a group of people stand in front of a wall with a three-story concrete building in the background
The CIA tracked 9/11 attack mastermind Osama bin Laden to this house in Pakistan, where U.S. special operations forces killed him.
AP Photo/B.K. Bangash

During the Cold War, from 1947 to 1991, the agency conducted numerous controversial covert actions. These included conducting coups in Iran and Guatemala and attempted or successful political assassinations in Congo, the Dominican Republic, Chile and Cuba. It also carried out highly effective programs such as the U-2 spy plane and Operation Argo, which rescued six Americans stranded in Iran after the 1979 revolution.

Effective espionage and covert action are likely to prove crucial for blunting threats that nations such as China, Russia, Iran and North Korea pose to the U.S. They will be key to monitoring the activities of these nations and enabling the director to deliver timely and valuable analysis to the president.

CIA director’s changed role

During the Cold War, the director of central intelligence had autonomy to conduct these covert actions with limited oversight. The position was extremely powerful at the time because the director was in charge of overseeing all U.S. intelligence activities, not just those of the CIA. This left the director of the CIA as the primary voice on intelligence matters to the president.

Since significant reform of the U.S. intelligence community in 2005 in response to the failure to prevent the 9/11 attacks, the role of the CIA director has changed. The most significant of these changes is that the CIA director no longer manages all U.S. intelligence. The reforms gave that responsibility to the more independent director of national intelligence.

The reform also saw the CIA director’s influence diminished because the position is no longer the primary intelligence adviser to the president. This has created tension between the two positions at times, with the CIA maintaining a high degree of independence from even the director of national intelligence.

In 2017, for example, President Donald Trump restored the CIA director as a formal member of the president’s Cabinet. Later, the CIA director was made a regular attendee of the National Security Council, the president’s principal forum for national security deliberations.

While there is more oversight of the CIA today from Congress and the director of national intelligence, the agency remains relatively independent in conducting espionage and covert action. These include covert actions during the Syrian civil war and during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

black and white photo of armed men around a boat on a beach
These Cuban soldiers helped defeat the CIA-organized Bay of Pigs invasion in Cuba in 1961.
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Another change has been the increased size of the intelligence community. The CIA today is only part of a much larger group of intelligence agencies. These include the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency and more specialized agencies like the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.

In spite of this more capable and larger intelligence community, the CIA remains the premiere U.S. intelligence agency. This ensures that the CIA director will remain a key player in any presidential administration. The director possesses an immense responsibility to protect the U.S. from foreign threats.

Although the CIA director’s role has changed over time, what remains clear is its central importance to the success of U.S. national security efforts. This has become only more apparent given the increasing turbulence in world affairs.

This story is part of a series of profiles of Cabinet and high-level administration positions.The Conversation

Matthew Clary, Senior Lecturer in Political Science, Auburn University

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Terrorist groups respond to verbal attacks and slights by governments with more violence against civilians

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theconversation.com – Brandon J. Kinne, Professor of Political Science, University of California, Davis – 2025-01-14 07:48:00

Yazidi women in Iraq mourn the victims of Islamic State group attacks.
Ismael Adnan/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Brandon J. Kinne, University of California, Davis; Iliyan Iliev, The University of Southern Mississippi, and Nahrain Bet Younadam, University of Arizona

After an Islamic State group-inspired attack in New Orleans killed 14 people on New Year’s Day 2025, President Joe Biden warned that terrorists would find “no safe harbor” in the U.S.

Governments often condemn terrorist groups in this way, as well as making threats and engaging in what we call “verbal attacks.”

But such an approach may be counterproductive; extremist groups tend to respond to such comments by ratcheting up violence against civilians. That’s what we found when we analyzed six years of data on incidents of terrorist violence and their proximity to government denunciations.

Our study focused primarily on the Islamic State group.

The extremist organization came to the world’s attention in early 2014, when it began seizing territory in Iraq and Syria. At the height of its power in 2015, the Islamic State group controlled over 100,000 square kilometers (39,000 square miles).

Although it has declined substantially since then, the group remains the world’s deadliest terror organization – responsible for nearly 2,000 deaths in 2023.

The rapid metastasis of the Islamic State group – it has affiliates across the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia – combined with the extreme brutality of its tactics, triggered waves of condemnations by foreign governments. Former U.S. president Barack Obama initially referred to the Islamic State group as the “JV team” in 2014, implying that the group was not as formidable an opponent as more established groups like al-Qaida. A year later, he vowed to “destroy” the group.

Our motivating research question is whether these and similar statements affect terrorists’ behavior.

Traditionally, researchers have dismissed statements like this as “cheap talk.” And government officials similarly do not take seriously the possibility that such statements might have unintended consequences or inflict actual costs.

But when extremist groups commit terror attacks, they always have an audience in mind. And the Islamic State group closely monitors how governments respond to its actions.

Terrorist groups use attacks on civilians to illustrate the extreme measures they are willing to take to achieve their goals. Our research suggests that when governments denounce terrorists, reject their demands or make retaliatory threats, targeted groups infer that they are not being taken seriously. As a result, they commit further atrocities against civilians, with the intent of signaling their intentions and capabilities even more forcefully.

To confirm this, we used a large-scale machine-coded dataset known as the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System to extract daily data on all events involving the Islamic State group for the period 2014 to 2020. We then employed a coding system known as CAMEO to identify events where governments threatened, denounced or otherwise verbally attacked the group.

We found that when governments initiated any form of verbal attack against the organization, the Islamic State group responded by targeting civilians, typically within two days of a verbal attack.


Iliyan Iliev, Nahrain Bet Younadam, Brandon J Kinne, CC BY-SA

Our model showed that every three verbal attacks by governments led to an additional, otherwise unexpected attack by the Islamic State group on civilians. These attacks averaged over six deaths per attack, so the humanitarian consequences of this effect are substantial.

Why it matters

Government leaders face enormous pressures to address national security threats, and terrorism is a powerful source of anxiety for citizens.

Yet, counterterrorism is expensive, risky and logistically difficult.

As such, publicly threatening or denouncing an organization offers a tempting alternative strategy. But there has been little research into how government leaders’ words might backfire, encouraging extremists to attack civilians.

At the same time, although the Islamic State group has diminished greatly in capacity, transnational terrorism continues to flourish. And the resurgence of the Islamic State group remains a threat to security in the Middle East and beyond.

What still isn’t known

We extended the analysis to the terrorist groups Boko Haram in Nigeria and Al-Qaida in Iraq, and we found similar results. But further research is needed to determine whether this pattern holds for terrorist groups in general.

Our theory argues that extremists respond so strongly to verbal attacks because they view those remarks as questioning the group’s credibility – a phenomenon we refer to as a “credibility deficit.”

But terrorists have many motivations, including the desire to control territory and repress dissent. We don’t yet know the magnitude of these influences relative to credibility.

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.The Conversation

Brandon J. Kinne, Professor of Political Science, University of California, Davis; Iliyan Iliev, Associate Professor of Political Science, The University of Southern Mississippi, and Nahrain Bet Younadam, Postdoctoral Research Associate in the School of Government and Public Policy, University of Arizona

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