SUMMARY: The tropics are active, with a focus on a potential system in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, showing a high chance of formation in the coming days. While it is currently a broad area of low pressure, its exact path and strength remain uncertain. Forecast models suggest it may move towards Louisiana and the Florida Keys, but discrepancies exist. For now, the region enjoys quiet radar conditions and pleasant weather, with temperatures in the 80s and a low risk at beaches. High pressure will keep conditions enjoyable through the weekend, with possible changes mid-week as rain chances increase.

Thanks to high pressure in place, rain chances will stay slim to none across the News 5 area. We got quite warm this afternoon with highs pushing into the low- to mid-90’s. Rip current risk will remain low throughout the end of the weekend and into the start of next week. With high pressure staying in control through Monday, we will start the fall season with mostly clear skies with highs in the low-90’s for Sunday and Monday. As southwesterly flow increases aloft into Tuesday and the middle of the week, moisture will increase allowing for more chances for isolated showers and storms. A front will also be to our north and west by Thursday and will pass through the area late Thursday into Friday. The end of next week will also be determined by developments in the tropics. In the tropics we are tracking three areas. Two of them are in the central tropical Atlantic, and one has a low chance of formation and will likely stay away from the Gulf. The other is one we will have to watch closely over the next several days as it has a medium chance for formation. These do not pose an immediate threat to the News 5 area. Another is in the western Caribbean and in the southern Gulf. The Central American Gyre, a broad area of low pressure, is expected to form a smaller area of low pressure in part of the Caribbean or in the southern Gulf by the middle of next week. It is uncertain where exactly it will develop, how strong it will get, and the exact track. Once it develops, we will have a better idea of where this system will move. For now, make sure you have a tropical plan and stay updated with all the latest here on WKRG.

The WKRG News 5 First Alert Storm Team covers part of southeast Mississippi, southwestern Alabama, and northwest Florida. You can also view the full Saturday evening forecast for the Gulf Coast here: https://tinyurl.com/5dp9smer
Follow Meteorologist Grant Skinner on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/wkrggrant

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