State Sen. David Blount sits down with Mississippi Today’s Bobby Harrison and Adam Ganucheau to discuss the push for income tax elimination and how that would affect the state’s budget. He also talks about needed funding for the state’s troubled retirement system and whether Mississippi will soon adopt mobile sports betting.

READ MORE: As lawmakers look to cut taxes, Mississippi mayors and county leaders outline infrastructure needs

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For the third year in a row, extreme drought conditions in the Midwest are drawing down water levels on the Mississippi River, raising prices for companies that transport goods downstream and forcing governments and business owners to seek alternative solutions.

Extreme swings between drought and flooding have become more frequent in the region, scientists say, as climate change alters the planet’s weather patterns and inches the average global temperature continually upwards.

“Without question, it’s discouraging that we’re in year three of this. Because that is quite unique to have multiple years in a row of this,” said Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition, a trade organization representing Midwest soy growers. “We’re obviously trending in the wrong direction.”

Since 2022, much of the Midwest has experienced some level of drought, with the driest conditions concentrated in Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska and Kansas. Record rainfall in June and during part of July temporarily broke that dry spell, forecasters say, only for drought conditions to reemerge in recent weeks along the Ohio River basin, which typically supplies more water to the Mississippi than any other major tributary.

Water levels have been dropping in the lower Mississippi since mid-July, federal data show, reaching nearly seven feet below the historic average in Memphis on Sept. 13. In October 2023, water levels reached a record-low -11 feet in Memphis. Remnants of Hurricane Francine, which made landfall in Louisiana Wednesday night as a Category 2 storm, “will provide only temporary relief,” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a news release Wednesday.

“Rainfall over the Ohio Valley is also not looking to be widespread and heavy enough to generate lasting effects and anticipate that much of the rainfall will soak into the ground with little runoff,” the agency said in the release.

At the Vicksburg, Mississippi, gauge, the river has dropped from 28 feet in July to just four feet on Sept. 13. For reference, the flood stage in Vicksburg is 43 feet. NOAA projects that the river level there will only climb up slightly, to about seven feet, over the next couple weeks.

Those conditions have raised prices for companies transporting fuel and grain down the Mississippi in recent weeks, as load restrictions force barge operators to limit their hauls, which squeezes their profit margin. Barge rates from St. Louis reached $24.62 a ton in late August and $27.49 per ton by the following week, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Steenhoek said barge prices during the first week of September were 8 percent higher than the same week last year and 57 percent higher than the three-year average. “It does change that supply demand relationship,” he said, “because now all of a sudden you’re having to transport a given amount of freight with less capacity.”

A river in flux

Aaron Wilson, Ohio’s state climatologist and a professor at Ohio State University, said the whiplash between this summer’s record wet months and September’s drought conditions appears to fit what could be an emerging climate trend observed by researchers.

The Midwest region has generally gotten wetter over the decades. The Fifth National Climate Assessment, released last year, reported that annual precipitation increased by 5 to 15 percent across much of the Midwest in the 30-year period leading up to 2021, compared to the average between 1901 and 1960.

But evidence also suggests the Midwest is experiencing more frequent swings between extreme wet and extreme dry seasons, with climate models predicting that the trend will persist into the future, said Wilson, who was the lead author of the assessment’s Midwest chapter.

“This was front and center for us,” he said. “One of the main things that we talked about were these rapid oscillations … between wet to dry and dry to wet extremes.”

Research also suggests that seasonal precipitation is trending in opposite directions, and will continue to do so in the coming decades, Wilson added. “And so what you get is too much water in the winter and spring and not enough during the growing season,” he said, referring to summer months.

If that evidence holds true, it could have notable impacts on U.S. food exports moving forward.

Future impacts on shipping 

Transporting goods, including corn, soy and fuel, on the Mississippi is more efficient pound for pound than ground transportation, business groups say, and gives the U.S. an edge in a competitive global market. According to the Waterways Council, a trade association for businesses that use the Mississippi River, a standard 15-barge load is equivalent to 1,050 semi trucks or 216 train cars — meaning domestic farmers and other producers can save significant time and money moving their goods by boat.

The majority of U.S. agricultural exports rely on the Mississippi to reach the international market, as farmers move their crops to export hubs on the Gulf Coast, said Debra Calhoun, senior vice president of the Waterways Council. “More than 65 percent of our national agriculture products that are bound for export are moving on this inland waterway system,” she said. “So this system is critical to farmers of any size farm.”

The ramifications could be especially harmful to the soy industry, Steenhoek said, since about half of the soy grown in the U.S. is exported. By the last week of August, grain exports transported by barge fell 17 percent compared to the week before, according to a Thursday report released by the USDA.

Steenhoek said the increased costs to U.S. growers hurt their ability to compete globally. Any price increase to domestic grain could encourage international clients to instead buy from rival countries like Brazil or Argentina, he said.

While it’s typical for water levels on the Mississippi to drop during the fall months, Steenhoek said, the recent years of drought have been a real wakeup call for farmers to diversify their supply chains. Soy growers, he said, have since set up new supply chain agreements with rail lines and have even invested in new export terminals in Washington state and on the coast of Lake Michigan in Milwaukee.

Boats docked at the Riverside Park Marina south of downtown Memphis were cut off from the Mississippi River in November 2022. Credit: Patrick Lantrip/Daily Memphian

Luckily, Calhoun said, disruptions to river transportation this year haven’t been nearly as bad as they were last year, when the Mississippi’s water levels reached record lows. Several barges were grounded last year and in 2022, she said, referring to when boats get stuck on the riverbed or in areas where sediment has built up. That hasn’t occurred so far this year. 

She chalks that up to proactive efforts this year by companies and federal agencies, like the Army Corps of Engineers, to mitigate transportation disruptions. 

George Stringham, chief of public affairs for the Corps’ St. Louis District, said they started dredging the river a few weeks earlier this year. “We started early to get ahead of things, in anticipation, after having two straight years of low water conditions,” said Stringham. Dredging involves moving sediment on the riverbed from areas where it can cause problems to boats to areas where it won’t. 

Wilson, Ohio’s climatologist, said he has seen stronger cooperation among stakeholders in tackling this issue. “It’s a mix of climate scientists, social scientists and planners and emergency preparedness folks that are really coordinating this effort,” he said.

The result, Calhoun said, is that their coalition of groups have been able to handle the disruptions relatively well this year, which leaves her feeling cautiously optimistic. “It’s really hard, you know, to track this and try to figure out is it just normal? Is it getting much worse? Are we going to have to make significant changes, and if so, what would they be? But we’re not there yet,” she said.

This story is a product of the Mississippi River Basin Ag & Water Desk, an independent reporting network based at the University of Missouri in partnership with Report for America, with major funding from the Walton Family Foundation.

Missississippi Today environmental reporter Alex Rozier contributed to this report.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

After 13 hours of watching college football Saturday – and enduring seemingly 21,989 TV timeouts – this bleary-eyed correspondent is left with more questions than answers.

For instance, is Ole Miss, the nation’s fifth-ranked team, really this good? (Honestly, I think the Rebels are.)

Are Mississippi State and Southern Miss this bad? (The season is still a puppy, but, boy, those are two teams that really need for something good to happen. Soon.)

Through three games, Lane Kiffin’s offense averages nearly 700 yards per game, nearly nine yards per play and exactly 56 points per game. Granted, the Rebels have not played a really good football team yet, but these eyes see no weaknesses, glaring or otherwise. Apparently, Wake Forest doesn’t either because the Demon Deacons are paying Ole Miss $750,000 to not play the return game in Oxford next year.

As for Mississippi State, there was nothing holy about Toledo. The Rockets earned a $1.2 million paycheck and dominated the Bulldogs in every phase of the game in a 41-17 victory that was ever bit as one-sided as it sounds. The pertinent question seems not so much how can a 10.5-point underdog win by 24 points on the road, but why was Toledo ever a double-digit underdog in the first place?

Toledo plays in the Mid-American Conference, where the league’s best teams are nearly always competitive with Power 5 conference teams. We saw it a week ago when Northern Illinois won at Notre Dame. That was a week after Notre Dame won on the road at Texas A&M and a week before the Irish crushed Purdue 66-7. That same Saturday, Bowling Green led for much of the game before losing at Penn State. Last year, Toledo lost to Illinois by three points in its opener before winning 11 regular season games and the MAC regular season title. 

My point: Toledo is a well-coached, veteran team, used to success, and no doubt came to Starkville expecting to win. What the Rockets couldn’t have expected was to dominate. But Toledo led 14-0 early, 28-3 at halftime and 35-3 in the third quarter. It could have been worse than the final 41-17.

For State, the worst part is that the Bulldogs were dominated at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. There was nothing fluke-y about it. Twenty of Toledo’s 73 offensive plays gained 10 for more yards. On the flip side, Toledo defenders combined for five sacks, six tackles for losses. State ran the ball 27 times for a paltry 66 yards.

That’s particularly sobering when you realize that the Bulldogs’ remaining schedule includes five of the nation’s top seven ranked teams. After Florida, in Starkville, this Saturday, State’s next two games are against the nation’s top two teams, Texas and Georgia, both on the road.

Meanwhile, Ole Miss continued its early season demolition of inferior competition. After clubbing Furman and Middle Tennessee State by a combined 128-3, the Rebels faced their first Power 5 competition and first road game of the season. The Rebels made it look easy. The first possession of the game pretty much set the tone: 75 yards and five plays in 87 seconds, touchdown Ole Miss. It was almost like a dummy drill. Before the first quarter was over, Ole Miss would score three touchdowns, and it easily could have been four.

Jaxson Dart has now completed 73 of 88 passes for 1,172 yards. That’s 83 percent. He throws lasers.

Ole Miss now plays a good Sun Belt team Georgia Southern, at home, before beginning conference play the following week against Kentucky. Road games at South Carolina and LSU follow that. The Rebels will be favored in all.

At Hattiesburg, Southern Miss started fast, taking a 14-0 lead over a talented South Florida team that had played Alabama on even terms for three and a half quarters the previous week. After USM’s quick start, reality set in. South Florida scored the next 28 points en route to a dominant, 49-24 victory. Most disheartening of all for USM: The Golden Eagles’ defensive front was supposed to be the strength of the team, but South Florida gashed USM for 369 yards rushing. Southern Miss now goes on the road to face Rich Rodriguez’s Jacksonville State team, which won nine games and the New Orleans Bowl last year.

Elsewhere:

• Previously No. 1 Georgia, for once, looked human in a 13-12 win at Kentucky.
• Previously No. 2 Texas lost Quinn Ewers but used Arch Manning’s five-touchdown performance to trounce UTSA 56-7 and move up to No. 1 ahead of Georgia. To this observer of three generations of quarterbacks named Manning, the athletic, 19-year-old Arch, whose performance included a 67-yard touchdown run, looked far more like his grandfather Archie than either of his famous quarterbacking uncles Peyton and Eli.
• No. 4 Alabama went on the road to blast Wisconsin 42-10.
• No. 16 LSU outlasted South Carolina 36-33 in a game marred by officiating that was sketchy at best.
• Vanderbilt fell from the unbeaten ranks, dropping a 36-32 decision to Georgia State of the Sun Belt Conference.
• Jackson State trounced Southern University 33-15 for its fifth straight victory over the Jaguars before a crowd of just over 32,000 at Veterans Memorial Stadium.
• Colorado bounced back with a 28-9 victory over Colorado State. Former Jackson State coach Deion Sanders had his son, Shadeur, throwing the ball and padding his stats with a 19-point lead with under two minutes to play. CBS announcers, understandably, were both incredulous and critical. Alas, sportsmanship will never be Deion’s long suit.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.