Life of the party: For Republican lawmakers, it’s, again, majority rules

by Sarah Michels, Carolina Public Press
January 29, 2025

As lawmakers head into a legislative session where Republicans are one seat shy of a veto-proof supermajority, the job is simple. For Democrats, hold the line. For the GOP, convince just one person to cross it. 

Overriding a governor’s veto requires three-fifths of each chamber. That’s 72 votes. 

That’s why many eyes will be on the state House where Democrats have 49 seats and Republicans hold 71.  That’s where it will be a numbers game.

No flipping

House Republicans are loyal, according to their voting records during the 2023-24 legislative session.  Many rarely, if ever, broke from the party. 

Meanwhile, the Democratic front was not so impenetrable. In the same session, 10 representatives voted with the Republican majority over 70% of the time. State Rep. Michael Wray was the top flipper, but lost in a primary last year. Two have since resigned. That now leaves seven in this session who may side with the GOP.

They are, in order from most likely to vote with the Republican majority to least likely, based on their 2023-24 voting record: Reps. Shelly Willingham (representing Bertie, Edgecombe and Martin counties); Carla Cunningham (Mecklenburg County); Garland Pierce (Hoke and Scotland counties); Cecil Brockman (Guilford County); Nasif Majeed (Mecklenburg County); Terry Brown Jr. (Mecklenburg County); and B. Ray Jeffers (Durham and Person counties). 

These Democrats will face intense pressure from both sides of the aisle, according to High Point University political science professor Martin Kifer. 

“It is such a crucial thing for the governor to have a veto that can stick as a negotiating point,” he said. “By the same token, there’ll be pressure on some Democrats who may be in tougher seats or have more of a record of working with Republicans to move over because being in the majority, and especially supermajority, can have benefits for them.”

Those benefits could include specific funding toward a lawmaker’s district, Kifer said. Or support for a program to help their constituents. 

Having the ear of the majority can be powerful, and if lawmakers play their cards right, a ticket to reelection. 

Lawmaker’s legacy

Former representative Tim Moore was the longest serving House Speaker in state history. 

Moore has since moved on to the U.S. Congress. Now, Destin Hall, a 37-year-old politician who has never served in the minority party, will take over.

Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University, doubts that the policy preferences of the Republican caucus will shift under Hall, but thinks stylistic and protocol changes may have an impact. 

“Moore’s power was so entrenched that there was no question leading into the session, not only who was formally in charge, but who was in charge behind the scenes, too,” Cooper said. 

He wonders if Hall will be able to consolidate power in the same manner. The state House is historically harder to control than the Senate simply due to the greater number of lawmakers to wrangle. 

Catawba College political science professor Michael Bitzer said he expects Hall to use Moore’s old playbook from the last time Republicans found themselves just shy of a supermajority. 

That was in 2023. Moore tried to cut deals with small blocks of Democratic lawmakers, offering incentives in exchange for votes to override vetoes on certain pieces of legislation, Bitzer said. 

Lawmakers who made the switch 

After former representative Tricia Cotham switched her party affiliation to Republican in November 2023, it became easier for the GOP to block the vetoes of former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. 

With her addition, Republicans gained a supermajority in both chambers. 

At the time of her switch, Cotham said the modern day Democratic Party had become “unrecognizable” to her, and she felt stifled by attempts to control her votes and “villainize” her for “free thought.” Last legislative session, she voted with the Republican majority 96% of the time. 

Tensions are again high after one Democratic lawmaker, state Rep. Cecil Brockman of Guilford County, abstained from last session’s vote to override Cooper’s veto of Senate Bill 382. While publicized as a Helene relief bill, SB 382 mostly dealt with shifting power away from incoming Democratic Gov. Josh Stein. 

Brockman caught flack from his party for missing the vote, which gave the Republican majority more wiggle room to override the veto 72-46.

In an open letter posted to social media, Brockman said he had been sick and was told the vote would likely be unanimous.

He also did not hold back in his criticism of the state Democratic party, who tried to primary him out of his seat based on his voting record. 

“If I do not bend my knee to the establishment, I will continue to be portrayed as a villain. They’d rather convince my community that I am a villain to be scapegoated instead of acknowledging the reality that things are rarely black and white,” Brockman wrote. 

He issued a clear warning to Democrats, reminiscent of Cotham’s 2023 switch. 

“For those in our party who desire to keep my name in their mouths, let me make it plain and clear for you: Over these next two years, you need me. I do not need you,” Brockman said. 

Western Carolina’s Cooper said it was easier for Cotham to switch parties and maintain her electoral success. The same is probably not true for Brockman. 

“I think given the nature of his district, it’s a very Democratic district, it’s hard to imagine it ever being something else,” Cooper said. “I think he would be unlikely to formally switch because that would effectively be the end of his political career, whereas Cotham was able to switch and be drawn into a district that was at least competitive.” 

Nonetheless, his voting record may still reflect his discontent with his party. 

Lawmakers need to show up 

Attendance records just got way more important. 

Under the state constitution, the three-fifths threshold to override a veto is dependent on how many lawmakers show up. If the full, 120-member state House is present, it takes 72 votes to override a veto.  

“If certain members aren’t present … that’s always an opportunity to sneak through a potential override,” Bitzer explained. 

Still, according to Cooper, there’s some benefit to “taking a walk” and being absent rather than voting against your party. While both are on a lawmaker’s permanent voting record, one may be more excusable. 

“People do have dentist appointments, and people do have doctor’s appointments and people’s kids get sick, people’s tires go out,” Cooper said. “There’s a lot of ways to explain later why you didn’t show up for something. If you cast a vote against it, then that one’s written in stone.” 

This article first appeared on Carolina Public Press and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.