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In a departure from past North Carolina elections, Republican voters are turning out more heavily than Democrats to vote early • Asheville Watchdog

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avlwatchdog.org – TOM FIEDLER – 2024-10-30 06:15:00

With just a week before Election Day, North Carolina’s Republicans are turning out more heavily than Democrats and independents in early voting, shedding the party’s former disdain for anything other than balloting on the first Tuesday of November.

The number of registered Republicans casting early ballots across the state surpassed Democrats late last week and have been holding a slim lead through Tuesday’s overnight count.  

Trailing both parties are voters who are independent, the so-called unaffiliated voters, who constitute the largest bloc of registrants and are capable of tilting most races.  

The numbers through Oct. 27: Republicans 961,871; Democrats 938,167; and the unaffiliated 904,669. That’s less than a half percent separating the two major party’s voters.

But here are some key qualifiers to keep in mind when looking at these numbers:  

  • First and foremost, this is the count of party and unaffiliated voters who have cast ballots. None of these ballots will be counted until the polls close at 7:30 p.m. Nov. 5.  While party loyalty is a strong indicator of how we vote, there will be party defectors and the party disgruntled who leave the ballot blank. (Spoiler alert: In this election the voter’s gender may matter more than party; see below).
  • Second, these numbers are snapshots taken in the middle of a race and don’t show which competitor may have some energy in reserve (more on this below) for a final sprint, including on Nov. 5. 
  • Third, unaffiliated voters are true wild cards whose leanings defy accurate predictions. Although they vote in lower percentages than party loyalists, their sheer numbers can decide the winner.

Two additional measures in the early-voting reports are noteworthy. One, which I alluded to above, is a measure called “proportion.”  So far, about 35 percent of the early ballots have been cast by Republicans and 33 percent by Democrats. 

But here’s that qualifier: To get that lead, it’s taken 38 percent of all registered Republicans to cast votes. Just 35 percent of all Democrats have voted, meaning the party has more in reserve to catch up. Think of it like a NASCAR race in which the leading car is slightly ahead of a rival. But the rival has more fuel in the tank, which could be important toward the finish.   

The other noteworthy measure has nothing to do with party registration. It’s gender. It comes to this: Women can determine this election. In North Carolina, one of the handful of swing states in the presidential election, women have the clout to decide every race from the White House and governor’s mansion to school boards, county commissions and the judiciary.  

In the 12 days of early voting since Oct. 17, women have outvoted men by about 10 percentage points. On a typical day, about 52 percent of the ballots are cast by women and just 42 percent cast by men. ( Six percent of voters decline to report their gender). 

Through Monday, women have cast about 300,000 more ballots than men – more of a gender chasm than a gender gap.  Keep in mind that this is a state where Donald Trump beat Joe Biden in 2020 by just 74,483 votes. By Nov. 5, that winning margin four years ago will be a small fraction of the gender gap. 

The size of that gap is widened even more by the fact that women turn out to vote  disproportionately higher than their percentage of the electorate. In this early voting period, although women comprise 49 percent of all registered voters, they have cast 52 percent of the early ballots. 

What does this mean? The words written in 1865 by poet William Ross Wallace may apply here: “The hand that rocks the cradle is the hand that rules the world.”   

Bluest of the blue Buncombe County

Not surprisingly, Democrats are outvoting Republicans by more than 2-to-1 in the latest tallies. Unaffiliated voters – the largest bloc – trail the Democrats by a smidgen. Unless something akin to a political Helene happens, it looks like Buncombe’s impact on Nov. 5 will be to make a lopsided contribution to the Democratic Party’s statewide vote total, which may offset Republican victories in more numerous, deep red counties. 

Also notable in Buncombe early-voting turnout is the gender gap, which mirrors the statewide average. Going into the final five days of early voting, women had cast 42,084 ballots while men added just 33, 651. That’s a commanding 52-41 percent gap.  (Memo to men: Find cradles to rock). 

Campaign fallout from Helene

The disruption – and some would say damage – from Helene extended also into many political campaigns, just as most candidates were hoping to hit their peaks. Communicating with potential voters who were struggling to mend shattered lives became impossible, if not intrusive.  Campaigning as we know it – door knocking, rallying, phone calling – was out of the question. 

From the beginning, Democratic challenger Caleb Rudow faced an uphill battle in unseating Republican U.S. Rep. Chuck Edwards in District 11. After Helene, the hill got steeper. // Photo credits: Watchdog photo by Starr Sariego, official congressional portrait 2023

No campaign has been hit harder than Democrat Caleb Rudow’s longshot effort to unseat incumbent Republican Chuck Edwards in the 11th Congressional District, which was ground zero for the storm’s wrath. Unseating an even marginally competent incumbent is always a challenge, which Rudow, the Asheville state legislator, acknowledged when he launched his campaign a year ago. 

Edwards began the race with an infusion of special-interest money, much of it coming from corporate and partisan PACs whose interests the Hendersonville Republican could impact through his House committee votes. Big checks rolled in from Walmart, gun rights organizations, the trucking and aviation industries, big pharma and even rural electrification. Big oil and gas funneled support through the American Battleground Fund, which is the House GOP’s deep pocket that provides camouflage for anti-green energy industries.

When Helene hammered the region, Edwards announced he was suspending his campaign to concentrate on assisting constituents because “it’s no time for politics.” Give credit where it is due: Edwards’s office became a lifeline for many victims, connecting them to many federal agencies – notably FEMA – and to local governments. He’s been on battered ground in the district’s farthest corners, while shuttling back and forth to the Capitol to advocate for FEMA’s continued need. 

Had he not failed to criticize ex-President Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson for falsely accusing FEMA of diverting aid money from Helene victims to assist undocumented immigrants, Edwards would merit praise for actually keeping his pledge to put partisanship aside. Speaking truth to GOP power was apparently a bridge too far. He gave up the no-campaigning facade in the past week with a TV ad that, paradoxically, implies he’s not being political. 

Fact is, he had the money to burn. When he called a halt to the campaign he had $309,221 in the bank. Rudow was down to $142,998 with little more than money for yard signs and digital ads to show for his efforts. 

Politics isn’t an equal opportunity employer.


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Year in Review: North Carolina’s 24 in 2024 | North Carolina

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www.thecentersquare.com – By Alan Wooten | The Center Square – 2024-12-26 13:01:00

SUMMARY: In 2024, North Carolina saw notable developments, including a population increase to 11.1 million and significant political changes. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, at 79, prepares to serve with a sixth governor. North Carolina also approved sports wagering, generating substantial revenue. Key highlights include Ag Commissioner Steve Troxler’s reelection, major agricultural economic impact, changes in abortion laws, and intensified debates over Title IX regulations. Hurricane Helene struck, causing widespread devastation. Voter behaviors shifted, particularly regarding gubernatorial races, amid discussions on AI’s electoral impact. Economic challenges persisted, with rising household expenses reflecting inflationary pressures.

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Early projection adds U.S. House seat for North Carolina | North Carolina

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www.thecentersquare.com – By Alan Wooten | The Center Square – 2024-12-26 10:01:00

SUMMARY: North Carolina’s population has surpassed 11 million, making it the ninth largest state and fourth in growth for 2023-2024. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates its population at 11,046,024, up from 10,439,388 in 2020, reflecting a gain of 164,835 residents. This growth positions North Carolina to potentially gain a U.S. House seat during the next reapportionment. The South is expected to add nine to ten seats overall. Conversely, states like California and those in the Blue Wall are projected to lose seats. North Carolina’s growth rate of 1.5% is the eighth highest in the nation.

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Water outage, and restoration, took center stage this fall after Helene • Asheville Watchdog

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avlwatchdog.org – JOHN BOYLE – 2024-12-26 06:00:00

I’ve joked for weeks now that I’m going to sell my own T-shirts in Asheville that read: “Today’s mood: Turbid.”

It’s fair to say “turbidity” is probably the word of the year in these parts. OK, maybe it’s just behind “Helene,” but that is a name that must not be spoken aloud.

When the mountains got a thorough soaking on Sept. 25, in a system preceding Helene, folks were getting a little nervous around here, partly because it takes only about 5 inches of rain to create landslides and flooding. (Ten days before Helene, Asheville Watchdog published a story about Asheville’s increased risk of flooding.)

In 2004, back-to-back remnants from hurricanes Frances and Ivan wreaked havoc on Asheville’s main water supply, the North Fork Reservoir, stripping away the two main transmission lines and leaving customers without service for nearly two weeks.

The city installed a separate bypass line afterward, one capable of delivering water from the reservoir near Black Mountain to customers in Asheville. A 350-acre lake nestled in a 20,000-acre watershed, North Fork provides 80 percent of Asheville’s drinking water.

That 25-foot deep bypass line was no match for Helene when it rolled into the area in the wee hours of Sept. 27.

The city announced Sept. 29 that the storm “severely damaged the production and distribution system of the City of Asheville’s water system.”

“Extensive repairs are required to treatment facilities, underground and aboveground water pipes, and to roads that have washed away which are preventing water personnel from accessing parts of the system,” the announcement said. “Although providing a precise timeline is impossible, it is important to note that restoring service to the full system could potentially take weeks.”

In an interview the next morning, Asheville Mayor Esther Manheimer told me the damage was similar to what occurred in 2004 and was exacerbated by a washed-out road leading to the reservoir.

“What we’re communicating to people is, plan for (the) long-term — we’re talking weeks, not days,” Manheimer said of potential outage time. “We want people to plan for that. Hopefully it won’t be that long.”

It was that long. 

The city had to replace the two main transmission lines, 24 and 36 inches in diameter, and the 36-inch auxiliary transmission pipe the city had installed in a different location from the main lines after the 2004 outage. 

The city hired multiple contractors who worked around the clock to dig out and replace the two washed-out main transmission pipelines, and the bypass line. They also had to fix the road that leads to North Fork.

Restoration work on a water distribution line along old U.S. 70 in Swannanoa a few days after Helene is shown in this drone photograph. // Photo provided by City of Asheville

Water Resources spokesperson Clay Chandler and Assistant City Manager Ben Woody offered frequent updates throughout the fall, and the photos and videos they aired during the daily briefings told the story: The transmission lines, along with roads and distribution lines, were annihilated. In some cases, workers couldn’t even find the old pipes.

That 25-foot deep bypass line built following the 2004 outage was “engineered and installed to withstand a 2004 event, without a doubt,” according to Woody.

It turns out Helene brought us a 1,000-year rainfall event, though, and 2004 was child’s play comparatively. It also turns out that the city showed vision in completing a major spillway upgrade at North Fork in 2021 that may have prevented the dam from giving way and inundating the Swannanoa Valley and Asheville with a catastrophic cascade.

Non-potable water returned by mid-October

Honestly, after viewing Helene’s power in so many areas, particularly Swannanoa, I’d say it’s a minor miracle that the restoration crews, which included plenty of Water Resources workers, were able to get pipes back in place and restore at least non-potable water by the middle of October. The city opted to replace the bypass transmission line first, and that got the system wet with unfiltered but highly chlorinated lake water.

It was a start, and it at least allowed people to flush commodes and take showers (if they were a little adventurous). 

The city’s Bee Tree Reservoir in Swannanoa also sustained heavy damage from Helene, and high turbidity has kept it out of operation all year. 

The city’s third drinking water installation, the treatment plant on the Mills River in northern Henderson County, remained operational throughout the crisis, but it’s not able to produce enough water on its own to meet the demand of the city’s 63,000 water customers.

Equipment used to install turbidity-reducing curtains sat on the shore of North Lake Reservoir in October. At the time, Asheville water system customers were under a boil water notice more than a month after Helene. // Credit: City of Asheville

The city steadfastly refused to give any specific timeline on restoring potable water, sticking to the “weeks” estimate. Meanwhile, a boil water notice remained in effect as the city tried to reduce turbidity in North Fork with multiple treatments of chemicals that enhance coagulation, and the installation of “turbidity curtains,” which help still the water in front of the intakes to the treatment system.

Meanwhile, the city had been working with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which had assembled a small pilot plant at North Fork to determine just how much turbidity the reservoir’s direct filtration system could handle. 

This brings us to another term we’ve all come to know and love: Nephelometric Turbidity Units, or NTUs.

Measured in Nephelometric Turbidity Units (NTUs), the murkiness at the North Fork Reservoir stood at 79 after Helene. The lake’s natural turbidity typically stood around 1.0 before the storm. // Credit: City of Asheville

This is how turbidity, or water murkiness, is measured. Normally, North Fork’s untreated water is around 1.0 NTUs, but it had soared to 79 after Helene.

Water Resources maintained turbidity would have to drop to 1.5 to 2.0 NTUs for North Fork to be able to treat the water. But it turned out the Corps’ pilot plant directly filtered water, the same way the reservoir does.

The Corps and the city discovered that as the muddiness cleared, it could indeed filter higher-turbidity water, in the 10-12 NTUs range. By early-to-mid November, North Fork was pushing out 17 million gallons of treated water, then 20 million and even more.

The city was on the path to restoration of potable water.

The lead issue, and the return to potable water

But on Nov. 14, it dropped a bombshell: Its testing had detected lead in seven schools, after Asheville water didn’t undergo the normal lead mitigation process for nearly three weeks.

The city’s use of the bypass line for water transmission did not allow for the water to pass through the regular treatment process for 19 days. That regular process involves adding zinc orthophosphate and sodium bicarbonate, minerals that coat the insides of pipes, with the zinc material absorbing the lead and keeping it from reacting with the water. The bicarbonate controls pH.

A slide from one of Asheville Water Resources spokesperson Clay Chandler’s presentations showed how the department was using chemical applications and an in-lake filtration system to try to reduce the North Fork Reservoir’s turbidity. // Credit: City of Asheville

The city re-established corrosion control treatment Oct. 30, but it can take 30 to 90 days for the chemicals to fully work.

While health officials and the city said no students had consumed the water, and flushing pipes typically removes any lead that may have leached into the water, customers were understandably concerned. Within a month, the city had been inundated with requests for lead testing kids, more than 8,000 by mid-December.

The lead issues took some of the shine off of the city’s announcement Nov. 18 that it had restored potable water, and that the EPA said the water is safe to drink. As Asheville Watchdog previously reported, two outside experts expressed concern about the lead, as no level is safe in drinking water, and they urged customers in houses built in 1988 or before, when lead rules changed, to get the testing done before consuming water.

A mobile filtration system, possible improvements in the future

Meanwhile, the Corps of Engineers were working on another project, which Chandler, the Water Resources spokesperson, had announced in October, to bring in a mobile filtration system at North Fork designed to work on high-turbidity water. The Corps spearheaded the project, awarding a six-month, $39 million contract to Ahtna/CDM Smith on Nov. 8. The contract has an option to be extended.

The mobile filtration system became partly operational in early December, and Chandler said Dec. 18 that three of 13 units were operational. Eventually it “will do most of the heavy lifting, with North Fork’s existing processes providing support, to produce the average daily demand of 20-25 million gallons of water,” Chandler had said previously.

On another positive note, the initial batch of lead test results came back in early December, with favorable results. Results for 159 homes showed nine had detectable levels of lead “on the first draw,” Chandler said at the Dec. 9 briefing. 

“First draw” means water has sat in the customer’s pipes for at least six hours and a sample is taken without first flushing.

“Of those nine, only three were either at or exceeded the action level of .015 parts per million,” Chandler said then. “Here is the most important part: After flushing for 30 seconds, out of 159 samples taken, zero had detectable levels of lead.”

The news improved Dec. 18 when Chandler noted 305 more tests had come back. 

“Out of 464 results that we’ve gotten back so far, 19 had detectable levels of lead on the first draw,” Chandler said. “Of those 19, eight were over the (EPA) action limit of .015 parts per billion.”

Out of 464 flush samples, where customers let the water run for 30 seconds, two have had  “very slight detectable levels of lead in them,” Chandler said, noting that one could be the result of the customer mixing up test bottles and the other was in a basement sink where the water had not run in weeks.

And that’s where the system is today — with potable water but officials still urging customers in older homes to let the water flush for at least 30 seconds before consuming it, or until the water temperature changes.

Following Helene, the city of Asheville will have to look at a permanent filtration improvement to North Fork, which could cost in the neighborhood of $100 million. // Photo credit: Phillips & Jordan Inc.

It’s been a long arduous process to bring the water back, and Woody said previously the city is going to have to consider some more system improvements to prevent another long-term outage. Those include a primary water transmission line from North Fork that routes in a different direction than the others — and is not in the path of the spillway.

The city also will have to look at a permanent filtration improvement to North Fork, which could cost in the neighborhood of $100 million. The city already has in its capital improvements plan provisions for upgrading the Mills River treatment facility to increase its capacity.

North Fork typically produces about 21.5 million gallons of water a day, Mills River about 3 million. The city also likely will explore another water source somewhere on the western side of Buncombe County, Woody has said.

Clearly, this outage has been a learning experience for the city, and as I’ve noted before, Water Resources did not have a good handle on just how turbid North Fork water could be and still be treated.

But this was truly an unprecedented event — one that caused flooding that eclipsed the previous benchmark flood of 1916. It claimed 43 lives in Buncombe alone, and more than 100 throughout the region, and it caused billions of dollars of losses in property damage.

Put in that context, restoring potable water in under eight weeks was a remarkable accomplishment, albeit not one without some hiccups along the way. 


Asheville Watchdog is a nonprofit news team producing stories that matter to Asheville and Buncombe County. John Boyle has been covering Asheville and surrounding communities since the 20th century. You can reach him at (828) 337-0941, or via email at jboyle@avlwatchdog.org. The Watchdog’s local reporting during this crisis is made possible by donations from the community. To show your support for this vital public service go to avlwatchdog.org/support-our-publication/.

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