With just a week before Election Day, North Carolina’s Republicans are turning out more heavily than Democrats and independents in early voting, shedding the party’s former disdain for anything other than balloting on the first Tuesday of November.
The number of registered Republicans casting early ballots across the state surpassed Democrats late last week and have been holding a slim lead through Tuesday’s overnight count.
Trailing both parties are voters who are independent, the so-called unaffiliated voters, who constitute the largest bloc of registrants and are capable of tilting most races.
The numbers through Oct. 27: Republicans 961,871; Democrats 938,167; and the unaffiliated 904,669. That’s less than a half percent separating the two major party’s voters.
But here are some key qualifiers to keep in mind when looking at these numbers:
First and foremost, this is the count of party and unaffiliated voters who have cast ballots. None of these ballots will be counted until the polls close at 7:30 p.m. Nov. 5. While party loyalty is a strong indicator of how we vote, there will be party defectors and the party disgruntled who leave the ballot blank. (Spoiler alert: In this election the voter’s gender may matter more than party; see below).
Second, these numbers are snapshots taken in the middle of a race and don’t show which competitor may have some energy in reserve (more on this below) for a final sprint, including on Nov. 5.
Third, unaffiliated voters are true wild cards whose leanings defy accurate predictions. Although they vote in lower percentages than party loyalists, their sheer numbers can decide the winner.
Two additional measures in the early-voting reports are noteworthy. One, which I alluded to above, is a measure called “proportion.” So far, about 35 percent of the early ballots have been cast by Republicans and 33 percent by Democrats.
But here’s that qualifier: To get that lead, it’s taken 38 percent of all registered Republicans to cast votes. Just 35 percent of all Democrats have voted, meaning the party has more in reserve to catch up. Think of it like a NASCAR race in which the leading car is slightly ahead of a rival. But the rival has more fuel in the tank, which could be important toward the finish.
The other noteworthy measure has nothing to do with party registration. It’s gender. It comes to this: Women can determine this election. In North Carolina, one of the handful of swing states in the presidential election, women have the clout to decide every race from the White House and governor’s mansion to school boards, county commissions and the judiciary.
In the 12 days of early voting since Oct. 17, women have outvoted men by about 10 percentage points. On a typical day, about 52 percent of the ballots are cast by women and just 42 percent cast by men. ( Six percent of voters decline to report their gender).
Through Monday, women have cast about 300,000 more ballots than men – more of a gender chasm than a gender gap. Keep in mind that this is a state where Donald Trump beat Joe Biden in 2020 by just 74,483 votes. By Nov. 5, that winning margin four years ago will be a small fraction of the gender gap.
The size of that gap is widened even more by the fact that women turn out to vote disproportionately higher than their percentage of the electorate. In this early voting period, although women comprise 49 percent of all registered voters, they have cast 52 percent of the early ballots.
What does this mean? The words written in 1865 by poet William Ross Wallace may apply here: “The hand that rocks the cradle is the hand that rules the world.”
Bluest of the blue Buncombe County
Not surprisingly, Democrats are outvoting Republicans by more than 2-to-1 in the latest tallies. Unaffiliated voters – the largest bloc – trail the Democrats by a smidgen. Unless something akin to a political Helene happens, it looks like Buncombe’s impact on Nov. 5 will be to make a lopsided contribution to the Democratic Party’s statewide vote total, which may offset Republican victories in more numerous, deep red counties.
Also notable in Buncombe early-voting turnout is the gender gap, which mirrors the statewide average. Going into the final five days of early voting, women had cast 42,084 ballots while men added just 33, 651. That’s a commanding 52-41 percent gap. (Memo to men: Find cradles to rock).
Campaign fallout from Helene
The disruption – and some would say damage – from Helene extended also into many political campaigns, just as most candidates were hoping to hit their peaks. Communicating with potential voters who were struggling to mend shattered lives became impossible, if not intrusive. Campaigning as we know it – door knocking, rallying, phone calling – was out of the question.
From the beginning, Democratic challenger Caleb Rudow faced an uphill battle in unseating Republican U.S. Rep. Chuck Edwards in District 11. After Helene, the hill got steeper. // Photo credits: Watchdog photo by Starr Sariego, official congressional portrait 2023
No campaign has been hit harder than Democrat Caleb Rudow’s longshot effort to unseat incumbent Republican Chuck Edwards in the 11th Congressional District, which was ground zero for the storm’s wrath. Unseating an even marginally competent incumbent is always a challenge, which Rudow, the Asheville state legislator, acknowledged when he launched his campaign a year ago.
Edwards began the race with an infusion of special-interest money, much of it coming from corporate and partisan PACs whose interests the Hendersonville Republican could impact through his House committee votes. Big checks rolled in from Walmart, gun rights organizations, the trucking and aviation industries, big pharma and even rural electrification. Big oil and gas funneled support through the American Battleground Fund, which is the House GOP’s deep pocket that provides camouflage for anti-green energy industries.
When Helene hammered the region, Edwards announced he was suspending his campaign to concentrate on assisting constituents because “it’s no time for politics.” Give credit where it is due: Edwards’s office became a lifeline for many victims, connecting them to many federal agencies – notably FEMA – and to local governments. He’s been on battered ground in the district’s farthest corners, while shuttling back and forth to the Capitol to advocate for FEMA’s continued need.
Had he not failed to criticize ex-President Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson for falsely accusing FEMA of diverting aid money from Helene victims to assist undocumented immigrants, Edwards would merit praise for actually keeping his pledge to put partisanship aside. Speaking truth to GOP power was apparently a bridge too far. He gave up the no-campaigning facade in the past week with a TV ad that, paradoxically, implies he’s not being political.
Fact is, he had the money to burn. When he called a halt to the campaign he had $309,221 in the bank. Rudow was down to $142,998 with little more than money for yard signs and digital ads to show for his efforts.
SUMMARY: In Disney’s “Magic of Storytelling” podcast, Thumper discovers a robin’s egg after a storm. He and his four sisters—Trixie, Tessy, Daisy, and Ria—worry about the egg being cold and try to keep it warm with leaves. As they debate the best approach, they decide to find the mama robin for help. Meanwhile, Thumper and Daisy attempt to cheer the egg by singing and dancing. Eventually, the sisters return with a nest just as the mama robin arrives. The egg hatches, bringing joy to the bunnies as they celebrate their teamwork and caring efforts.
Thumper the bunny is hopping along one day and finds a special egg! Soon, he and his family are set out on an adventure to find the egg’s Mama.
Today’s round of questions, my smart-aleck replies, and the real answers:
Question: I’ve never been inside the UNC Asheville chancellor’s residence, but I’m told that it’s quite large and cost a pretty penny to build. Could you provide some details about the home? How large is it? How much did it cost to build? How much to maintain? How much land razed to build? Could it house some essential workers or be sold or redeveloped? Could it maybe become a museum to forests from long ago? After all, don’t chancellors earn enough to afford their own homes?
My answer: I’m pretty sure the 3,800-acre Joyce Kilmer Memorial Forest near Robbinsville is our area’s actual tree museum, or at least a great display of old growth forest that gives an idea of what the area looked like before European settlement. Unless of course it’s already been logged under the new administration’s policies.
Real answer: UNCA spokesperson Brian Hart confirmed that Chancellor Kimberly van Noort does use the official residence, also known as the Pisgah House, as a home, as is required by the University of North Carolina university system. Specifically, he referred me to a section of the UNC policy manual and code titled, “Occupation of Official Residences of the Chancellors and the President.”
It states: “The Board of Governors reaffirms its expectation that the president of the university and the chancellors of each constituent institution will occupy their official residence and that these residences will be used for University business and functions.”
The policy also states, “that it is the policy of the Board of Governors that the president and the chancellors are required to live in their official residences as a condition of employment, except in the case where such a requirement would present a serious hardship; in any such case the president or chancellor must obtain approval from the Board of Governors, except that such approval will not be necessary if the residence is being vacated temporarily while repairs or renovations are being made.”
In June 2024, Asheville Watchdogreported on van Noort’s $300,000 base salary and perks, which include housing in the chancellor’s residence, “membership in a golf club with access to 16 courses in the Southeast, including the Country Club of Asheville, and a $900 monthly car allowance,” according to the article. That story also noted that beginning in 2025, van Noort was eligible for “incentive compensation” of up to 100 percent of her salary.
The university also pays for “utilities, maintenance, housekeeping, and groundskeeping services,” according to van Noort’s appointment letter. For the first four months of 2024, the utilities cost $3,193, then-UNCA spokesman Michael Strysick said.
The university also paid $3,458 for a security system, $13,754 for a heat pump, and $1,991 for “private property signage,” Strysick said last year.
Mountain Xpress noted in a 2014 article that the then-new $2.9 million, 6,333-square-foot chancellor’s residence had just opened and would serve as a residence but also a public space for special events.
“The two-story house replaces UNCA’s former home for its chancellor on Macon Avenue, a house that served that purpose since 1966. The university sold the home in 2007 for $600,000 and used that money, as well as private donations from about 150 people, to build the new structure,” Xpress reported.
Xpress also noted that the new home “sits on 2 acres of a 50-acre parcel of land across W.T. Weaver Boulevard from the main UNCA campus and close to the U.S. Forest Service Southern Research Station.
Motorists traveling Interstate 26 in southern Buncombe County and in Henderson County will notice new lanes open for driving, including this spot just east of Airport Road, which now features four driving lanes. // Watchdog photo by John Boyle
Question: I am wondering why the speed limit in the newly constructed area of I-26 in Henderson County changes frequently between 55 mph and 65 mph within a short period of space. It occurs more frequently going east than it does coming west. Did NCDOT fail to remove the 55 mph signs or have folks improperly uncovered the 65 mph signs too soon?
My answer: I’m pretty sure 55 mph really means 70 to 75 mph to most North Carolina drivers, so let’s not split hairs here.
Real answer: “We are currently addressing the signs,” NCDOT spokesperson David Uchiyama told me Thursday morning. “They may be updated by the time this answer is published!”
Uchiyama said the 55 mph signs in Henderson County “should have all been removed, but a few still remain.”
For the record, the speed limit is 65 mph from exits 44-49, 60 mph from exit 44-40 and 55 mph in the Buncombe County workzone.
As someone who drives I-26 just about every day, I’ve got to say these new lanes that are open are a little slice of heaven. Gives you a feel for how the interstate will flow when the whole project is finished.
NCDOT announced April 9 the opening of the new lanes on the Henderson County portion of the I-26 widening, a separate project from the widening on I-26 in Buncombe County. The news release noted that the Henderson County portion is “functionally complete and in its final pattern with final punch-list remaining.”
The total project, which started in 2019 and includes sections in Buncombe and Henderson, should wrap up next year.
The NCDOT release noted that all of the new lanes on I-26 east heading to South Carolina were opened from Airport Road (Exit 40) to U.S. 64 (Exit 49) on April 5. The stretch includes four lanes of travel from Airport Road to U.S. 25 (Exit 44) and three lanes from there to U.S. 64 (Exit 49).
The punch list includes final grinding of the concrete surface, installation of permanent pavement markings, snow-plowable markers, the addition of rumble strips, finishing of signs and other tasks, according to the release. “Many of them will require overnight closures in certain sections to safely complete the tasks,” the release noted.
New lanes on I-26 west from Hendersonville opened April 10. This stretch has four lanes from U.S. 25 to Airport Road, three lanes from Airport Road to Long Shoals Road, and two lanes through the remaining construction zone up to Brevard Road.
In Buncombe County this week, work crews opened the eastbound stretch of I-26 from Long Shoals Road to Glenn Bridge Road to three lanes, and from the bridge over Glenn Bridge Road to four lanes, where it will connect with the recently opened four-lane section beyond Airport Road, according to the NCDOT release.
This stretch of road also has a punch list, including the installation of snow-plowable reflectors, fresh lane markings, and roadside signs. It also will require some night-time closures.
The NCDOT said opening this stretch “allows crews to concentrate on the northern half of I-26 widening in Buncombe County — the stretch from Long Shoals Road to Brevard Road. The northern stretch includes the creation of a new interchange, which was added to plans after the project started, that creates a new exit providing drivers with another route to Brevard Road by the North Carolina Arboretum.”
That exit largely is being built to accommodate the Pratt & Whitney jet engine fan blade plant.
The NCDOT said other tasks on the northern section of the I-26 project “will include completion of new westbound lanes, completion of the new Blue Ridge Parkway bridge and removal of the old bridge. NCDOT officials anticipate completing final operations in late 2026.”
It’s been a long slog, folks, but it’s getting there!
Asheville Watchdog is a nonprofit news team producing stories that matter to Asheville and Buncombe County. Got a question? Send it to John Boyle at jboyle@avlwatchdog.org or 828-337-0941. His Answer Man columns appear each Tuesday and Friday. The Watchdog’s reporting is made possible by donations from the community. To show your support for this vital public service go to avlwatchdog.org/support-our-publication/.
www.thecentersquare.com – By Alan Wooten | The Center Square – (The Center Square – ) 2025-04-17 15:09:00
(The Center Square) – Restrictions on K-12 students’ use of cellphones is in the Senate’s state budget proposal and in legislation originating in the state House of Representatives that has reached the Senate’s rules committee.
The outcome of negotiations for a budget between the Senate, House of Representatives and Gov. Josh Stein will determine what language, if any, comes forward and from where. The House has yet to release its two-year spending proposal.
And the cellphones in schools issue, if the House vote is an indicator, is agreed upon in General Assembly chambers holding significant Republican majorities.
The Center Square was unsuccessful getting response this week from House Speaker Destin Hall, R-Caldwell, and Senate Rules Committee Chairman Bill Rabon, R-Brunswick. Cell-Phone Free Education, known also as House Bill 87, passed the House 114-3 a day prior to going into the Senate Rules Committee.
The one-page House legislation says in part, “At the beginning of each school year, governing bodies of public school units shall notify parents of all students enrolled in the public school unit of the Cell Phone-Free Education Policy adopted under subsection (a) of this section.”
That subsection says, “Governing bodies of public school units shall adopt a cell phone-free education policy to eliminate or severely restrict student access to cell phones during instructional time.”
In the public instruction section of the Senate budget proposal, the language in part says governing bodies shall establish wireless communication policy, and sans exceptions, shall “prohibit students from using, displaying, or having a wireless communication device turned on during instructional time.”
Exceptions include teachers’ instructing use; as required by a student’s individualized education program; or to manage a student’s health care per documented medical conditions.
