Mississippi Today
How to watch the Mississippi governor’s race results like a political pro
Mississippians cast their votes Tuesday in the contentious governor’s race between Gov. Tate Reeves and Democratic challenger Brandon Presley.
Independent candidate Gwendolyn Gray, who dropped out of the race in early October, withdrew too late to be removed from the ballot. Her candidacy could force the first gubernatorial runoff in the state’s history.
Mississippi Today’s political team compiled key themes to watch tonight as the results come in.
LIVE RESULTS: Mississippi’s general election 2023
Will there be a runoff?
Pre-election polling from both Democrats and Republicans showed Reeves right at or just under earning 50% of the vote. If Gray, the independent candidate, earned enough of a protest vote on Tuesday, the top two vote-getters will face each other in a Nov. 28 runoff election.
The number to watch here is between 3% and 4%. One Republican consultant shared with Mississippi Today that they believe if Gray gets at least 3% of the overall statewide vote, it could be enough to keep Reeves or Presley under 50% and force a runoff. A second Republican consultant said it may take 4% support for Gray to force a runoff.
In 2019, there were two third-party candidates who ran against Reeves, the Republican nominee, and Jim Hood, the Democratic nominee. Together, those two third-party candidates only garnered 1.3% of the overall vote.
Did Reeves get enough conservative support?
Reeves this cycle notably struggled with firing up voters of the Republican Party’s most conservative wing.
If counties that are considered conservative strongholds turn out in numbers equal to or better than 2019, this could be a sign that Reeves has weathered struggles with GOP voter enthusiasm.
Jones County, considered by many the state’s capital of the far-right conservative movement, is a bellwether here. In 2019, Reeves earned 13,784 votes in Jones County — 65% of the county’s total 21,257 residents who cast ballots. If Reeves gets anything less than 13,784 votes today, that could be a sign of lower-than-needed conservative support.
Pearl River County, another strongly conservative locale, is another to watch. In 2019, Reeves earned 10,083 votes here — 77% of the county’s total 13,151 residents who cast ballots. It looks like 10,000 is the magic number for Reeves here, and anything less could show broader problems among Mississippi conservatives.
Did Presley get enough Black voter support?
Presley, if he has any chance of winning or forcing Reeves to a runoff, needs high levels of Black voter support. He has spent 2023 earnestly trying to earn that support, and numerous Black local elected officials have served as his surrogate for months.
Hinds County, of course, is the most critical county in this regard. It’s the most populous county in the state, and it’s 69% Black. In 2019, Hood, the Democrat, beat Reeves here by 56 points (78% to 22%). Hood beat Reeves in Hinds County by 40,527 votes — by far the largest head-to-head defeat in that election.
If Presley has upped that Hinds County margin of victory today, that could be enough to vault the Democrat’s campaign.
Of major note in Hinds County tonight: There were reports of at least nine precincts across the county that ran out of ballots at various points during the day. Multiple lawsuits were filed attempting to extend precinct hours, and less than an hour before the schedule 7 p.m. polling close time, a chancery judge extended the hours at some precincts.
The Gulf Coast battleground
The populous three counties of the Gulf Coast, by many accounts, secured Reeves’ victory in 2019 as he ran up a more than 22,400 vote margin over Hood. Reeves’ margin of victory in those three counties was about half of his overall margin of victory statewide.
Reeves topped Hood by 18 points in the second-most populous Harrison County. The Coast is a Republican stronghold, but even by that measure Hood performed poorly in turning out Coast Democrats.
Presley and his campaign have worked hard on the Coast, and focused on turning out Black voters in North Gulfport and Turkey Creek in Harrison County, Moss Point in Jackson County, and other relatively large Democratic areas.
Presley stands little chance of winning the Republican-majority Coast, but if he can substantially reduce Reeves’ margin there he can remain competitive statewide.
How do suburban voters swing?
Presley’s campaign has also targeted voters in suburban counties that typically vote Republican but have trended more toward Democrats in recent years.
In 2019, Reeves shellacked Hood by 23 points — or nearly 8,600 votes — in the state’s third-most populous DeSoto County. While DeSoto remains strongly Republican leaning, its growing population has shifted to include a larger Black voting age population more likely to vote Democratic. Plus, Presley has performed well there in his district runs for Public Service Commissioner, and his campaign this cycle has focused much effort, including a get-out-the-vote ground game, in DeSoto County. It’s highly unlikely Presley could win DeSoto, but cutting losses drastically compared to those Hood suffered there would be something of a victory in an area where Reeves ran up his margin four years ago.
Rankin County, Reeves’ home county and the largest suburban county in the Jackson metro, is another one to watch. In 2019, Reeves won 29,861 votes in Rankin County — 64% of the county’s total 46,654 residents who cast ballots. Presley likely has no hopes of flipping this county, but watch for a smaller Reeves margin of victory in Rankin County. If the margin is less than 16,793 votes, that could be a sign that Presley’s strategy to appeal to moderates worked some.
Staying in the Jackson metro area, don’t forget about Madison County, which was a bright spot for Democrats in 2019. Hood garnered 19,670 votes or 50.4% to become the first Democrat since 1987 to win Madison County. Reeves won 48.7% of the vote in 2019. If Presley expects to win or force a runoff, he needs to at least match Hood’s performance from 2019.
Presley’s northeast Mississippi home
Another county to watch closely that could signal suburban voter support: Lee County in northeast Mississippi.
In the early 2000s, Presley served as mayor of Nettleton, which is situated on the Lee County/Monroe County line. To be successful, Presley needs to do much better in his backyard of Lee County, the most populous county in the area, than Hood did in 2019. Even though Hood is from Chickasaw County, which is contiguous to Lee, he was still swamped by Reeves in Lee County four years ago. In 2019, Reeves captured 14,672 votes or 58.3% in Lee to 10,293 or 40.9% for Hood.
Presley might not need to win Lee County to win or force a runoff, but he needs to do much better than Hood did in 2019. Needless to say, Presley needs to outperform Hood’s 2019 effort throughout northeast Mississippi.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
On this day in 1955
Feb. 2, 1955
Less than a year after the U.S. Supreme Court had desegregated public schools, U.S. Rep. Adam Clayton Powell Jr. rose on the House floor.
A Baptist preacher to a congregation of 10,000 in Harlem, he was one of only three Black Americans in Congress. Since getting elected to Congress a decade earlier, he had introduced many civil rights bills. None had passed. After introducing legislation to desegregate the armed forces, then-President Harry Truman wound up doing it through an executive order.
As Powell stepped to the microphone, he chastised Congress for failing to make a difference. He and others had introduced civil rights bills, “pleading, praying that you good ladies and gentlemen would give to this body the glory of dynamic leadership that it should have, but you have failed, and history has recorded it,” he said.
“This is an hour for boldness. This is an hour when a world waits breathlessly, expectantly, almost hungrily for this Congress, the 84th Congress, through legislation to give some semblance of democracy in action. … We are derelict in our duty if we continue to plow looking backward.”
He noted that when a House committee was considering legislation to end segregation in interstate travel, Lt. Thomas Williams was arrested and jailed, even though the Supreme Court had told bus carriers to end such segregation.
“About two weeks ago, while flying a jet plane, he was killed serving his country before he had a chance to see democracy come to pass,” Powell said.
Although his legislation failed, he kept pushing for change, telling crowds, “Keep the Faith, Baby!” The civil rights rider he introduced became part of the historic Civil Rights Act of 1964, which helped change America.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
On this day in 1960
Feb. 1, 1960
Four Black freshmen students from North Carolina A&T — Franklin McCain, Joseph A. McNeil, David L. Richmond and Ezell A. Blair Jr. — began to ask themselves what they were going to do about discrimination.
“At what point does a moral man act against injustice?” McCain recalled.
McNeil spoke up. “We have a definite purpose and goal in mind,” he said, “and with God on our side, then we ask, ‘Who can be against us?’”
That afternoon, they entered Woolworth’s in downtown Greensboro. After buying toothpaste and other items inside the store, they walked to the lunch counter and sat down.
They ordered coffee, but those in charge refused to serve them. The students stood their ground by keeping their seats.
The next day, they returned with dozens of students. This time, white customers shouted racial epithets and insults at them. The students stayed put. By the next day, the number of protesting students had doubled, and by the day after, about 300 students packed not just Woolworth’s, but the S.H. Kress Store as well.
A number of the protesting students were female students from Bennett College, where students had already been gathering for NAACP Youth Council meetings and had discussed possible sit-ins.
By the end of the month, 31 sit-ins had been held in nine other Southern states, resulting in hundreds of arrests. The International Civil Rights Center & Museum has preserved this famous lunch counter and the stories of courage of those who took part in the sit-ins.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
At least 96 Mississippians died from domestic violence. Bills seek to answer why
At least 96 Mississippians died from domestic violence. Bills seek to answer why
Nearly 100 Mississippians, some of them children, some of them law enforcement, died last year in domestic violence-related events, according to data Mississippi Today collected from multiple sources.
Information was pulled from local news stories, the Gun Violence Archive and Gun Violence Memorial and law enforcement to track locations of incidents, demographics of victims and perpetrators and any available information about court cases tied to the fatalities.
But domestic violence advocates say Mississippi needs more than numbers to save lives.
They are backing a refiled bill to create a statewide board that reviews domestic violence deaths and reveals trends, in hopes of taking preventative steps and making informed policy recommendations to lawmakers.
A pair of bills, House Bill 1551 and Senate Bill 2886, ask the state to establish a Domestic Violence Fatality Review Board. The House bill would place the board in the State Department of Public Health, which oversees similar existing boards that review child and maternal deaths, and the Senate version proposes putting the board under the Department of Public Safety.
“We have to keep people alive, but to do that, we have to have the infrastructure as a system to appropriately respond to these things,” said Stacey Riley, executive director of the Gulf Coast Center for Nonviolence and a board member of the Mississippi Coalition Against Domestic Violence.
“It’s not necessarily just law enforcement, just medical, just this,” she said. “It’s a collaborative response to this to make sure that the system has everything it needs.”
Mississippi is one of several states that do not have a domestic violence fatality review board, according to the National Domestic Violence Fatality Review Initiative.
Without one, advocates say it is impossible to know how many domestic fatalities and injuries there are in the state in any year.
Riley said data can tell the story of each person affected by domestic violence and how dangerous it can be. Her hope is that a fatality review board can lead to systemic change in how the system helps victims and survivors.
Last year, Mississippi Today began to track domestic violence fatalities similar to the way the board would be tasked to do. It found over 80 incidents in 2024 that resulted in at least 100 deaths.
Most of the victims were women killed by current and former partners, including Shaterica Bell, a mother of four allegedly shot by Donald Demario Patrick, the father of her child, in the Delta at the beginning of that year. She was found dead at the home with her infant. One of her older children went to a neighbor, who called 911.
Just before Thanksgiving on the Coast, Christopher Antoine Davis allegedly shot and killed his wife, Elena Davis, who had recently filed a protection order against him. She faced threats from him and was staying at another residence, where her husband allegedly killed her and Koritnik Graves.
The proposed fatality review board would have access to information that can help them see where interventions could have been made and opportunities for prevention, Riley said.
The board could look at whether a victim had any domestic abuse protection orders, law enforcement calls to a location, medical and mental health records, court documents and prison records on parole and probation.
In 2024, perpetrators were mostly men, which is in line with national statistics and trends about intimate partner violence.
Over a dozen perpetrators took their own lives, and at least two children – a toddler and a teenager – were killed during domestic incidents in 2024, according to Mississippi Today’s review.
Some of the fatalities were family violence, with victims dying after domestic interactions with children, parents, grandparents, siblings, uncles or cousins.
Most of the compiled deaths involved a firearm. Research has shown that more than half of all intimate partner homicides involve a firearm.
A fatality review board is meant to be multidisciplinary with members appointed by the state health officer, including members who are survivors of domestic violence and a representative from a domestic violence shelter program, according to the House bill.
Other members would include: a health and mental health professionals, a social worker, law enforcement and members of the criminal justice system – from prosecutors and judges to appointees from the Department of Public Safety and the attorney general’s office.
The House bill did not make it out of the Judiciary B Committee last year. This session’s House bill was filed by the original author, Rep. Fabian Nelson, D-Byram, and the Senate version was filed by Sen. Brice Wiggins, R-Pascagoula.
The Senate bill was approved by the Judiciary A Committee Thursday and will proceed to the full chamber. The House bill needs approval by the Public Health and Human Services Committee by Feb. 4.
“The idea behind this is to get at the root cause or at least to study, to look at what is leading to our domestic violence situation in the state,” Wiggins said during the Judiciary A meeting.
Luis Montgomery, a public policy and compliance specialist with the Mississippi Coalition Against Domestic Violence, has been part of drafting the House bill and is working with lawmakers as both bills go through the legislative process.
He said having state-specific, centralized data can help uncover trends that could lead to opportunities to pass policies to help victims and survivors, obtain resources from the state, educate the public and see impacts on how the judicial system handles domestic violence cases.
“It’s going to force people to have conversations they should have been having,” Montgomery said.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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