Mississippi Today
How to watch the Mississippi governor’s race results like a political pro
Mississippians cast their votes Tuesday in the contentious governor’s race between Gov. Tate Reeves and Democratic challenger Brandon Presley.
Independent candidate Gwendolyn Gray, who dropped out of the race in early October, withdrew too late to be removed from the ballot. Her candidacy could force the first gubernatorial runoff in the state‘s history.
Mississippi Today‘s political team compiled key themes to watch tonight as the results come in.
LIVE RESULTS: Mississippi’s general election 2023
Will there be a runoff?
Pre-election polling from both Democrats and Republicans showed Reeves right at or just under earning 50% of the vote. If Gray, the independent candidate, earned enough of a protest vote on Tuesday, the top two vote-getters will face each other in a Nov. 28 runoff election.
The number to watch here is between 3% and 4%. One Republican consultant shared with Mississippi Today that they believe if Gray gets at least 3% of the overall statewide vote, it could be enough to keep Reeves or Presley under 50% and force a runoff. A second Republican consultant said it may take 4% support for Gray to force a runoff.
In 2019, there were two third-party candidates who ran against Reeves, the Republican nominee, and Jim Hood, the Democratic nominee. Together, those two third-party candidates only garnered 1.3% of the overall vote.
Did Reeves get enough conservative support?
Reeves this cycle notably struggled with firing up voters of the Republican Party’s most conservative wing.
If counties that are considered conservative strongholds turn out in numbers equal to or better than 2019, this could be a sign that Reeves has weathered struggles with GOP voter enthusiasm.
Jones County, considered by many the state’s capital of the far-right conservative movement, is a bellwether here. In 2019, Reeves earned 13,784 votes in Jones County — 65% of the county’s total 21,257 residents who cast ballots. If Reeves gets anything less than 13,784 votes today, that could be a sign of lower-than-needed conservative support.
Pearl River County, another strongly conservative locale, is another to watch. In 2019, Reeves earned 10,083 votes here — 77% of the county’s total 13,151 residents who cast ballots. It looks like 10,000 is the magic number for Reeves here, and anything less could show broader problems among Mississippi conservatives.
Did Presley get enough Black voter support?
Presley, if he has any chance of winning or forcing Reeves to a runoff, needs high levels of Black voter support. He has spent 2023 earnestly trying to earn that support, and numerous Black local elected officials have served as his surrogate for months.
Hinds County, of course, is the most critical county in this regard. It’s the most populous county in the state, and it’s 69% Black. In 2019, Hood, the Democrat, beat Reeves here by 56 points (78% to 22%). Hood beat Reeves in Hinds County by 40,527 votes — by far the largest head-to-head defeat in that election.
If Presley has upped that Hinds County margin of victory today, that could be enough to vault the Democrat’s campaign.
Of major note in Hinds County tonight: There were reports of at least nine precincts across the county that ran out of ballots at various points during the day. Multiple lawsuits were filed attempting to extend precinct hours, and less than an hour before the schedule 7 p.m. polling close time, a chancery judge extended the hours at some precincts.
The Gulf Coast battleground
The populous three counties of the Gulf Coast, by many accounts, secured Reeves’ victory in 2019 as he ran up a more than 22,400 vote margin over Hood. Reeves’ margin of victory in those three counties was about half of his overall margin of victory statewide.
Reeves topped Hood by 18 points in the second-most populous Harrison County. The Coast is a Republican stronghold, but even by that measure Hood performed poorly in turning out Coast Democrats.
Presley and his campaign have worked hard on the Coast, and focused on turning out Black voters in North Gulfport and Turkey Creek in Harrison County, Moss Point in Jackson County, and other relatively large Democratic areas.
Presley stands little chance of winning the Republican-majority Coast, but if he can substantially reduce Reeves’ margin there he can remain competitive statewide.
How do suburban voters swing?
Presley’s campaign has also targeted voters in suburban counties that typically vote Republican but have trended more toward Democrats in recent years.
In 2019, Reeves shellacked Hood by 23 points — or nearly 8,600 votes — in the state’s third-most populous DeSoto County. While DeSoto remains strongly Republican leaning, its growing population has shifted to include a larger Black voting age population more likely to vote Democratic. Plus, Presley has performed well there in his district runs for Public Service Commissioner, and his campaign this cycle has focused much effort, including a get-out-the-vote ground game, in DeSoto County. It’s highly unlikely Presley could win DeSoto, but cutting losses drastically compared to those Hood suffered there would be something of a victory in an area where Reeves ran up his margin four years ago.
Rankin County, Reeves’ home county and the largest suburban county in the Jackson metro, is another one to watch. In 2019, Reeves won 29,861 votes in Rankin County — 64% of the county’s total 46,654 residents who cast ballots. Presley likely has no hopes of flipping this county, but watch for a smaller Reeves margin of victory in Rankin County. If the margin is less than 16,793 votes, that could be a sign that Presley’s strategy to appeal to moderates worked some.
Staying in the Jackson metro area, don’t forget about Madison County, which was a bright spot for Democrats in 2019. Hood garnered 19,670 votes or 50.4% to become the first Democrat since 1987 to win Madison County. Reeves won 48.7% of the vote in 2019. If Presley expects to win or force a runoff, he needs to at least match Hood’s performance from 2019.
Presley’s northeast Mississippi home
Another county to watch closely that could signal suburban voter support: Lee County in northeast Mississippi.
In the early 2000s, Presley served as mayor of Nettleton, which is situated on the Lee County/Monroe County line. To be successful, Presley needs to do much better in his backyard of Lee County, the most populous county in the area, than Hood did in 2019. Even though Hood is from Chickasaw County, which is contiguous to Lee, he was still swamped by Reeves in Lee County four years ago. In 2019, Reeves captured 14,672 votes or 58.3% in Lee to 10,293 or 40.9% for Hood.
Presley might not need to win Lee County to win or force a runoff, but he needs to do much better than Hood did in 2019. Needless to say, Presley needs to outperform Hood’s 2019 effort throughout northeast Mississippi.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
Mississippi Today’s NewsMatch Campaign is Here: Support Journalism that Strengthens Mississippi
High-quality journalism like ours depends on reader support; without it, we simply couldn’t exist. That’s why we’re proud to join the NewsMatch movement, a national initiative aimed at raising $50 million for nonprofit newsrooms that serve communities like ours here in Mississippi, where access to reliable information has often been limited.
In a time when trusted journalists and media sources are disappearing, we believe the stakes couldn’t be higher. Without on-the-ground, trustworthy reporting, civic engagement suffers, accountability falters and corruption often goes unaddressed. But it doesn’t have to be this way.
Here at Mississippi Today we act as watchdogs, holding those in power accountable, and as storytellers, giving a platform to voices that have been ignored for too long. And we’re committed to keeping our stories free for everyone because information should be accessible when it’s needed most.
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This year’s NewsMatch campaign runs from November 1 through December 31, giving us a special opportunity to make each dollar you give go even further. Through matching funds provided by local foundations like the Maddox Foundation, and national funders like the MacArthur Foundation, the Rural Partner Fund and the Hewlett Foundation, your gift will be matched dollar for dollar up to $1,000. Plus, if 100 new donors join us, we’ll unlock an additional $2,000 in funding, bringing us even closer to our goal. Boiled down: your donation goes four times as far.
Every dollar raised strengthens our ability to serve you with fact-based journalism on issues that impact your everyday life—whether it’s covering local election issues or reporting on decisions affecting schools, safety and economic growth in Mississippi. Your support makes it possible for us to stay rooted in the community, offering nuanced perspectives that help Mississippians understand and engage with what’s happening around them.
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This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
Hinds County loses fight over control of jail
The Hinds County sheriff and Board of Supervisors have lost an appeal to prevent control of its jail by a court-appointed receiver and an injunction that orders the county to address unconstitutional conditions in the facility.
Two members from a three-judge panel of the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals agreed with decisions by U.S. District Judge Carlton Reeves to appoint a receiver to oversee day-to-day jail operations and keep parts of a previous consent decree in place to fix constitutional violations, including a failure to protect detainees from harm.
However, the appeals court called the new injunction “overly broad” in one area and is asking Reeves to reevaluate the scope of the receivership.
The injunction retained provisions relating to sexual assault, but the appeals court found the provisions were tied to general risk of violence at the jail, rather than specific concerns about the Prison Rape Elimination Act. The court reversed those points of the injunction and remanded them to the district court so the provisions can be removed.
The court also found that the receiver should not have authority over budgeting and staff salaries for the Raymond Detention Center, which could be seen as “federal intrusion into RDC’s budget” – especially if the receivership has no end date.
Hinds County Board of Supervisors President Robert Graham was not immediately available for comment Friday. Sheriff Tyree Jones declined to comment because he has not yet read the entire court opinion.
In 2016, the Department of Justice sued Hinds County alleging a pattern or practice of unconstitutional conditions in four of its detention facilities. The county and DOJ entered a consent decree with stipulated changes to make for the jail system, which holds people facing trial.
“But the decree did not resolve the dispute; to the contrary, a yearslong battle ensued in the district court as to whether and to what extent the County was complying with the consent decree,” the appeals court wrote.
This prompted Reeves to hold the county in contempt of court twice in 2022.
The county argued it was doing its best to comply with the consent decree and spending millions to fix the jail. One of the solutions they offered was building a new jail, which is now under construction in Jackson.
The county had a chance to further prove itself during three weeks of hearings held in February 2022. Focuses included the death of seven detainees in 2021 from assaults and suicide and issues with staffing, contraband, old infrastructure and use of force.
Seeing partial compliance by the county, in April 2022 Reeves dismissed the consent decree and issued a new, shorter injunction focused on the jail and removed some provisions from the decree.
But Reeves didn’t see improvement from there. In July 2022, he ordered receivership and wrote that it was needed because of an ongoing risk of unconstitutional harm to jail detainees and staff.
The county pushed back against federal oversight and filed an appeal, arguing that there isn’t sufficient evidence to show that there are current and ongoing constitutional violations at the jail and that the county has acted with deliberate indifference.
Days before the appointed receiver was set to take control of the jail at the beginning of 2023, the 5th Circuit Court ordered a stay to halt that receiver’s work. The new injunction ordered by Reeves was also stayed, and a three-person jail monitoring team that had been in place for years also was ordered to stop work.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
2 out of 5 child care teachers make so little they need public assistance tosupport their families
This story about child care wages was produced by The Hechinger Report, a nonprofit,
independent news organization focused on inequality and innovation in education. Sign up for the Hechinger’s early childhood newsletter.
Caring for children during their first few years is a complex and critical job: A child’s
brain develops more in the first five years than at any other point in life. Yet in America,
individuals engaged in this crucial role are paid less than animal caretakers and
dressing room attendants.
That’s a major finding of one of two new reports on the dismal treatment of child care
workers. Together, the reports offer a distressing picture of how child care staff are
faring economically, including the troubling changes low wages have caused to the
workforce.
Early childhood workers nationally earn a median wage of $13.07 per hour, resulting in
poverty-level earnings for 13 percent of such educators, according to the first report, the
Early Childhood Workforce Index 2024. Released earlier this month by the Center for
the Study of Child Care Employment at the University of California, Berkeley, the annual
report also found:
? 43 percent of families of early educators rely on public assistance like
food stamps and Medicaid.
? Pay inequity exists within these low wages: Black early childhood
educators earn about $8,000 less per year than their white peers. The
same pay gap exists between early educators who work with infants and
toddlers and those who work with preschoolers, who have more
opportunities to work in school districts that pay higher wages.
? Wages for early educators are rising more slowly than wages in other
industries, including fast food and retail.
In part due to these conditions, the industry is losing some of its highest-educated
workers, according to a second new report, by Chris M. Herbst, a professor at Arizona
State University’s School of Public Affairs. That study compares the pay of child care
workers with that of workers in other lower-income professions, including cooks and
retail workers; it finds child care workers are the tenth lowest-paid occupation out of
around 750 in the economy. The report also looks at the ‘relative quality’ of child care
staff, as defined by math and literacy scores and education level. Higher-educated
workers, Herbst suggests, are being siphoned off by higher-paying jobs.
That’s led to a “bit of a death spiral” in terms of how child care work is perceived, and
contributes to the persistent low wages, he said in an interview. Some additional
findings from Herbst’s study:
? Higher-educated women increasingly find employment in the child care
industry to be less attractive. The share of workers in the child care
industry with a bachelor’s degree barely budged over the past few
decades, increasing by only 0.3 percent. In contrast, the share of those in
the industry who have 12 years of schooling but no high school degree,
quadrupled.
? Median numeracy and literacy scores for female child care workers
(who are the majority of the industry staff) fall at the 35 th and 36 th
percentiles respectively, compared to all female workers. Improving these
scores is important, Herbst says, considering the importance of education
in the early years, when children experience rapid brain development.
This doesn’t mean child care staff with lower education levels can’t be good early
educators. Patience, communication skills and a commitment to working with young
children also matter greatly, Herbst writes. However, higher education levels may mean
staff have a stronger background not only in English and math but also in topics like
behavior modification and special education, which are sometimes left out of
certification programs for child care teachers.
You can read Herbst’s full report here, and the 2024 workforce index here.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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