Mississippi Today
Governor’s race disconnect: Brandon Presley’s positions have more support than his candidacy does
Likely Mississippi voters by an overwhelming margin continue to support the issues touted by Democratic gubernatorial candidate Brandon Presley even if they do not support him.
The latest Mississippi Today/Siena College poll further highlights the electoral disconnect that has been evident in earlier polls conducted by the same pollster. The polls have consistently shown that people support Presley’s proposals, but he still trails Republican incumbent Gov. Tate Reeves.
The latest poll, conducted Aug. 20-28 of 650 likely voters ahead of the Nov. 8 general election, shows Reeves leading Presley 52% to 41%.
Yet a whopping 92% are concerned with the financial condition of Mississippi hospitals that put them at risk of closure. While Reeves has barely spoken of the hospital crisis unless asked about it by the media, Presley has made the issue key to his campaign.
Editor’s note: Poll methodology and crosstabs can be found at the bottom of this story. Click here to read more about our partnership with Siena College Research Institute.
And one of Presley’s primary solutions to the hospital crisis — expanding Medicaid to provide health care to primarily the working poor while at the same time providing another source of revenue for struggling hospitals — is supported by 72% of poll respondents and opposed by 23%.
To further amplify that voter disconnect, poll respondents are evenly split on which candidate “would do a better job addressing the Mississippi hospital crisis” at 44% each.
The only issue polled by Siena where Reeves appears to have an advantage is on the issue of transgender women competing in women’s sports. The issue was viewed as a concern by 70% of respondents, with 50% saying it was a very serious concern.
Reeves has made trans issues a key plank in his campaign. Anti-trans issues have been the subject of two of Reeves’ first six televised campaign commercials.
The governor has hammered his Democratic challenger on the issue even though Presley has stated, “I don’t think boys should be playing against girls, and girls shouldn’t be playing against boys. I don’t think minors should be getting surgery to change their gender.” But the Democrat has not focused on the issue like Reeves has.
Presley even has the more popular position on one of Reeves’ longtime favorite/pet issues: tax cuts. Reeves has touted the need to eliminate the state income tax for years. But the most recent Siena poll found that respondents by a wide margin support Presley’s proposal to cut the state’s 7% tax on groceries more than they support Reeves proposal to eliminate the state income tax. Eliminating the income tax is supported 62% to 28% with 10% undecided, while 83% favor cutting the grocery tax and 13% are opposed with 4% undecided.
The disconnect perhaps can be attributed to the fact that a vast majority of Mississippians want to vote for the Republican candidate over the Democrat more than they want to expand Medicaid or address the hospital crisis or cut the grocery tax. For many Mississippians, their default position is to vote for the Republican.
And the poll also found that still, about two months before the Nov. 7 election, a sizable group of Mississippians don’t know Presley. Presley is in his fourth term as Northern District Public Service commissioner, tasked with helping regulate many of the state’s utilities. He is running for statewide office for the first time. Reeves, on the other hand, is running his sixth statewide campaign and has almost a 9-to-1 cash advantage to help get out his message.
Presley was viewed as positive by 38% of poll respondents and negative by 26%, with 35% saying they did not know enough to offer an opinion.
What exactly should Presley make of this clear voter disconnect? He is clearly on the right side of many of the issues in terms of them being supported by the public, but he must be discouraged that that might not have an impact on how many Mississippians vote.
Reeves was viewed negatively by 49% and positively by 46%, with only 5% not offering an opinion. For an incumbent to be viewed unfavorably by nearly a majority of the electorate has to be a warning sign for Reeves.
The Mississippi Today/Siena College Research Institute poll of 650 registered voters was conducted August 20-28, 2023, and has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. Siena has an ‘A’ rating in FiveThirtyEight’s analysis of pollsters.
Click here for complete methodology and crosstabs relevant to this story.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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Mississippi Today
An ad supporting Jenifer Branning finds imaginary liberals on the Mississippi Supreme Court
The Improve Mississippi PAC claims in advertising that the state Supreme Court “is in danger of being dominated by liberal justices” unless Jenifer Branning is elected in Tuesday’s runoff.
Improve Mississippi made the almost laughable claim in both radio commercials and mailers that were sent to homes in the court’s central district, where a runoff election will be held on Tuesday.
Improve Mississippi is an independent, third party political action committee created to aid state Sen. Jenifer Branning of Neshoba County in her efforts to defeat longtime Central District Supreme Court Justice Jim Kitchens of Copiah County.
The PAC should receive an award or at least be considered for an honor for best fiction writing.
At least seven current members of the nine-member Supreme Court would be shocked to know anyone considered them liberal.
It is telling that the ads do not offer any examples of “liberal” Supreme Court opinions issued by the current majority. It is even more telling that there have been no ads by Improve Mississippi or any other group citing the liberal dissenting opinions written or joined by Kitchens.
Granted, it is fair and likely accurate to point out that Branning is more conservative than Kitchens. After all, Branning is considered one of the more conservative members of a supermajority Republican Mississippi Senate.
As a member of the Senate, for example, she voted against removing the Confederate battle emblem from the Mississippi state flag, opposed Medicaid expansion and an equal pay bill for women.
And if she is elected to the state Supreme Court in Tuesday’s runoff election, she might be one of the panel’s more conservative members. But she will be surrounded by a Supreme Court bench full of conservatives.
A look at the history of the members of the Supreme Court might be helpful.
Chief Justice Michael Randolph originally was appointed to the court by Republican Gov. Haley Barbour, who is credited with leading the effort to make the Republican Party dominant in Mississippi. Before Randolph was appointed by Barbour, he served a stint on the National Coal Council — appointed to the post by President Ronald Reagan who is considered an icon in the conservative movement.
Justices James Maxwell, Dawn Beam, David Ishee and Kenneth Griffis were appointed by Republican Gov. Phil Bryant.
Only three members of the current court were not initially appointed to the Supreme Court by conservative Republican governors: Kitchens, Josiah Coleman and Robert Chamberlin. All three got their initial posts on the court by winning elections for full eight-year terms.
But Chamberlin, once a Republican state senator from Southaven, was appointed as a circuit court judge by Barbour before winning his Supreme Court post. And Coleman was endorsed in his election effort by both the Republican Party and by current Republican Gov. Tate Reeves, who also contributed to his campaign.
Only Kitchens earned a spot on the court without either being appointed by a Republican governor or being endorsed by the state Republican Party.
The ninth member of the court is Leslie King, who, like Kitchens, is viewed as not as conservative as the other seven justices. King, former chief judge on the Mississippi Court of Appeals, was originally appointed to the Supreme Court by Barbour, who to his credit made the appointment at least in part to ensure that a Black Mississippian remained on the nine-member court.
It should be noted that Beam was defeated on Nov. 5 by David Sullivan, a Gulf Coast municipal judge who has a local reputation for leaning conservative. Even if Sullivan is less conservative when he takes his new post in January, there still be six justices on the Supreme Court with strong conservative bonafides, not counting what happens in the Branning-Kitchens runoff.
Granted, Kitchens is next in line to serve as chief justice should Randolph, who has been on the court since 2004, step down. The longest tenured justice serves as the chief justice.
But to think that Kitchens as chief justice would be able to exert enough influence to force the other longtime conservative members of the court to start voting as liberals is even more fiction.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
On this day in 1968
Nov. 24, 1968
Black Panther leader Eldridge Cleaver fled the U.S. to avoid imprisonment on a parole violation. He wrote in “Soul on Ice”: “If a man like Malcolm X could change and repudiate racism, if I myself and other former Muslims can change, if young whites can change, then there is hope for America.”
The Arkansas native began to be incarcerated when he was still in junior high and soon read about Malcolm X. He began writing his own essays, drawing the praise of Norman Mailer and others. That work helped him win parole in 1966. His “Soul on Ice” memoir, written from Folsom state prison, described his journey from selling marijuana to following Malcolm X. The book he wrote became a seminal work in Black literature, and he became a national figure.
Cleaver soon joined the Black Panther Party, serving as the minister of information. After a Panther shootout with police that left him injured, one Panther dead and two officers wounded, he jumped bail and fled the U.S. In 1977, after an unsuccessful suicide attempt, he returned to the U.S. pleaded guilty to a reduced charge of assault and served 1,200 hours of community service.
From that point forward, “Mr. Cleaver metamorphosed into variously a born-again Christian, a follower of the Rev. Sun Myung Moon, a Mormon, a crack cocaine addict, a designer of men’s trousers featuring a codpiece and even, finally, a Republican,” The New York Times wrote in his 1998 obituary. His wife said he was suffering from mental illness and never recovered.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
On this day in 1867
Nov. 23, 1867
The Louisiana Constitutional Convention, composed of 49 White delegates and 49 Black delegates, met in New Orleans. The new constitution became the first in the state’s history to include a bill of rights.
The document gave property rights to married women, funded public education without segregated schools, provided full citizenship for Black Americans, and eliminated the Black Codes of 1865 and property qualifications for officeholders.
The voters ratified the constitution months later. Despite the document, prejudice and corruption continued to reign in Louisiana, and when Reconstruction ended, the constitution was replaced with one that helped restore the rule of white supremacy.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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