Mississippi Today
Gov. Tate Reeves’ negatives are sky high. His strategy is to make Presley’s higher.
Gov. Tate Reeves’ negatives are sky high. His strategy is to make Presley’s higher.
The story goes something like this.
Two guys on a hike see an angry bear and turn tail to run in the opposite direction. One guy proclaims helplessly, “We can’t outrun a bear,” to which the other replies, “I don’t have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun you.”
Republican incumbent Gov. Tate Reeves hopes to make the 2023 general election, where he is likely to face Democrat Brandon Presley, like that hike in the woods.
Reeves hopes to make the race one where he does not have to convince the electorate to like him — he just has to convince voters to dislike him less than they dislike Presley.
No matter how often Reeves and his supporters want to shout “fake news” or “rigged polling,” the evidence is clear that the incumbent governor is not well-liked by Mississippi voters.
A recent Tulchin Research poll revealed that 54% of respondents had an unfavorable view of Reeves compared to 42% who viewed the incumbent governor favorably.
His favorability was even lower when respondents were quizzed about Reeves’ role in the ongoing scandal where at least $77 million in welfare funds were misspent, resulting in criminal convictions for some state officials, including people close to Reeves.
Perhaps more telling is a Siena College poll commissioned last month by Mississippi Today that found that 56% of poll participants would support “someone else” for governor this year, while 31% would support Reeves.
Recurring polls conducted by Morning Consult find that Reeves, since he’s been elected, is among the nation’s most disliked governors.
In the Tulchin poll, Presley surprisingly led Reeves 47% to 43%, while the incumbent led 43% to 38% in the Siena poll. At the very least, it appears right now the election will be close — surprisingly close for a Republican incumbent in Republican ruby red Mississippi.
These pollsters are not out to get Reeves. They are all legitimate national pollsters. Siena has been viewed as one of the most respected pollsters in the nation and was deemed as the most accurate in the 2022 midterm elections by the FiveThirtyEight blog, which compiles and analyzes polling data.
In the 2019 election, Reeves even seemed to acknowledge that a lot of folks did not like him, conceding that his willingness to say no to requests for state funding have made many people mad, especially as lieutenant governor where he presided over the Senate. Others say the fact that he is always in attack mode — often taking shots at political opponents when cooperation and humility could be a more appropriate response — turns off some voters.
The same Tulchin Research poll found that 39% had a favorable view of Presley while 18% viewed him unfavorable. The key is that most Mississippians do not know Presley, who has served as Northern District Public Service Commissioner since 2008. Reeves, on the other hand, is about as known a commodity as there is in Mississippi. He has run and won five statewide elections and is completing his 20th year in statewide elected office.
Reeves will strive to ensure that by the time he completes his sixth statewide campaign that Mississippi voters view Presley more negatively than they view him.
Reeves certainly the money to create any negative narrative he wants. According to the January filings with the Secretary of State’s office, Reeves has about $8 million cash on hand. He raised $3.5 million during 2022.
That is a lot of money to create a narrative about an opponent.
Presley has just $723,800 cash on hand, including $365,000 raised during 2022.
Reeves’ huge cash advantage is one of the primary reasons he is viewed as the heavy favorite despite what polls might say right now. And the last quarter of a century, Mississippians’ default vote seems to always be Republican.
Presley will work to introduce himself to the state’s electorate as a conservative Democrat who is focused on improving health care, the economy and other state issues. Reeves will focus a lot more on social issues like abortion and immigration. He will publicly question whether Presley is more focused on LBGTQ issues, on open borders, on tearing down white Mississippians while trying to uplift African Americans, and on trying to close all police departments across the state.
But the real question of the 2023 campaign is whether the unfavorability bear will catch Presley or Reeves first.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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Mississippi Today
On this day in 1997
Dec. 22, 1997
The Mississippi Supreme Court upheld the conviction of white supremacist Byron De La Beckwith for the 1963 murder of Medgar Evers.
In the court’s 4–2 decision, Justice Mike Mills praised efforts “to squeeze justice out of the harm caused by a furtive explosion which erupted from dark bushes on a June night in Jackson, Mississippi.”
He wrote that Beckwith’s constitutional right to a speedy trial had not been denied. His “complicity with the Sovereignty Commission’s involvement in the prior trials contributed to the delay.”
The decision did more than ensure that Beckwith would stay behind bars. The conviction helped clear the way for other prosecutions of unpunished killings from the Civil Rights Era.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
Medicaid expansion tracker approaches $1 billion loss for Mississippi
About the time people ring in the new year next week, the digital tracker on Mississippi Today’s homepage tabulating the amount of money the state is losing by not expanding Medicaid will hit $1 billion.
The state has lost $1 billion not since the start of the quickly departing 2024 but since the beginning of the state’s fiscal year on July 1.
Some who oppose Medicaid expansion say the digital tracker is flawed.
During an October news conference, when state Auditor Shad White unveiled details of his $2 million study seeking ways to cut state government spending, he said he did not look at Medicaid expansion as a method to save money or grow state revenue.
“I think that (Mississippi Today) calculator is wrong,” White said. “… I don’t think that takes into account how many people are going to be moved off the federal health care exchange where their health care is paid for fully by the federal government and moved onto Medicaid.”
White is not the only Mississippi politician who has expressed concern that if Medicaid expansion were enacted, thousands of people would lose their insurance on the exchange and be forced to enroll in Medicaid for health care coverage.
Mississippi Today’s projections used for the tracker are based on studies conducted by the Institutions of Higher Learning University Research Center. Granted, there are a lot of variables in the study that are inexact. It is impossible to say, for example, how many people will get sick and need health care, thus increasing the cost of Medicaid expansion. But is reasonable that the projections of the University Research Center are in the ballpark of being accurate and close to other studies conducted by health care experts.
White and others are correct that Mississippi Today’s calculator does not take into account money flowing into the state for people covered on the health care exchange. But that money does not go to the state; it goes to insurance companies that, granted, use that money to reimburse Mississippians for providing health care. But at least a portion of the money goes to out-of-state insurance companies as profits.
Both Medicaid expansion and the health care exchange are part of the Affordable Care Act. Under Medicaid expansion people earning up to $20,120 annually can sign up for Medicaid and the federal government will pay the bulk of the cost. Mississippi is one of 10 states that have not opted into Medicaid expansion.
People making more than $14,580 annually can garner private insurance through the health insurance exchanges, and people below certain income levels can receive help from the federal government in paying for that coverage.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, legislation championed and signed into law by President Joe Biden significantly increased the federal subsidies provided to people receiving insurance on the exchange. Those increased subsidies led to many Mississippians — desperate for health care — turning to the exchange for help.
White, state Insurance Commissioner Mike Chaney, Gov. Tate Reeves and others have expressed concern that those people would lose their private health insurance and be forced to sign up for Medicaid if lawmakers vote to expand Medicaid.
They are correct.
But they do not mention that the enhanced benefits authored by the Biden administration are scheduled to expire in December 2025 unless they are reenacted by Congress. The incoming Donald Trump administration has given no indication it will continue the enhanced subsidies.
As a matter of fact, the Trump administration, led by billionaire Elon Musk, is looking for ways to cut federal spending.
Some have speculated that Medicaid expansion also could be on Musk’s chopping block.
That is possible. But remember congressional action is required to continue the enhanced subsidies. On the flip side, congressional action would most likely be required to end or cut Medicaid expansion.
Would the multiple U.S. senators and House members in the red states that have expanded Medicaid vote to end a program that is providing health care to thousands of their constituents?
If Congress does not continue Biden’s enhanced subsidies, the rates for Mississippians on the exchange will increase on average about $500 per year, according to a study by KFF, a national health advocacy nonprofit. If that occurs, it is likely that many of the 280,000 Mississippians on the exchange will drop their coverage.
The result will be that Mississippi’s rate of uninsured — already one of the highest in the nation – will rise further, putting additional pressure on hospitals and other providers who will be treating patients who have no ability to pay.
In the meantime, the Mississippi Today counter that tracks the amount of money Mississippi is losing by not expanding Medicaid keeps ticking up.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
On this day in 1911
Dec. 21, 1911
Josh Gibson, the Negro League’s “Home Run King,” was born in Buena Vista, Georgia.
When the family’s farm suffered, they moved to Pittsburgh, and Gibson tried baseball at age 16. He eventually played for a semi-pro team in Pittsburgh and became known for his towering home runs.
He was watching the Homestead Grays play on July 25, 1930, when the catcher injured his hand. Team members called for Gibson, sitting in the stands, to join them. He was such a talented catcher that base runners were more reluctant to steal. He hit the baseball so hard and so far (580 feet once at Yankee Stadium) that he became the second-highest paid player in the Negro Leagues behind Satchel Paige, with both of them entering the National Baseball Hame of Fame.
The Hall estimated that Gibson hit nearly 800 homers in his 17-year career and had a lifetime batting average of .359. Gibson was portrayed in the 1996 TV movie, “Soul of the Game,” by Mykelti Williamson. Blair Underwood played Jackie Robinson, Delroy Lindo portrayed Satchel Paige, and Harvey Williams played “Cat” Mays, the father of the legendary Willie Mays.
Gibson has now been honored with a statue outside the Washington Nationals’ ballpark.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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