(The Center Square) – This week’s economic calendar is packed with key reports and influential Fed speeches, set to provide crucial clues amid escalating uncertainty. Recent inflation data have fanned stagflation fears – with core PCE inflation nudging up to 0.4% month-over-month (from 0.3% in January) and the year-over-year rate climbing from 2.7% to 2.8% – raising concerns that rising price pressures might persist even as nominal income growth continues to moderate. Falling inflation-adjusted incomes could hurt the consumer.

Consumer Spending and Income Growth in Question

A $15 billion decline in spending on food services, travel and hotels reveals that households are making tough trade-offs. With the personal savings rate climbing to 4.6% (up from 4.3% in January and 3.3% in December), it’s clear that consumers are building precautionary buffers amid uncertainty.

Manufacturing & Services: The ISM Outlook

The ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services indices will be in focus this week. These surveys, which provide hints about the health of the manufacturing and services sectors through questions on production, new orders, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories, include a Prices Index that has been on the rise. With input costs increasing, rising prices in manufacturing could signal broader inflationary pressures. Furthermore, April 2 – now being touted by the new administration as “liberation day” – is expected to result in higher market volatility.

Employment Report: The Ultimate Wild Card

Perhaps nothing will shake financial markets more than the upcoming BLS employment report. Uncertainty over the current policy climate means businesses will likely continue to hold back on hiring new workers – hiring rates are already at their lowest levels since 2014. Although layoffs have remained somewhat in check, federal government job cuts could begin to show up in upcoming jobs data. Along with falling consumer and business confidence, the report is expected to show a downtick in both employment and wage growth for March.

Looking Ahead

Since the last week of February, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have declined by 4.9%, 7%, and 10.8%, respectively. For every dollar of lost market value, consumer spending typically drops by 2 to 5 cents, and with the stock market correction already underway in March, early data suggest that the economy is stalling. Yet, in the midst of these challenges, a slowdown in the growth rate of the labor force means wages are still rising faster than prices. Without further shocks and a larger slowdown in labor demand, the U.S. economy might be able to stave off a recession.

(The Center Square) – Small businesses’ access to federal aid in rebuilding from Hurricane Helene is supported through a North Carolina congressman’s proposal in the House of Representatives.

Helene Small Business Recovery Act, authored by Rep. Chuck Edwards, R-N.C., drew the immediate support when filed last week of Democratic Rep. Don Davis and Republican Reps. Virginia Foxx and David Rouzer, all of North Carolina. The 5th Congressional District of Foxx and 11th of Edwards were significantly hit by the storm six months earlier, and the 7th Congressional District of Rouzer and the 1st of Davis are in the southeastern and eastern regions, respectively, of the state and the most often hit places by hurricanes.

“The Helene Small Business Recovery Act clarifies that SBA loans and federal grants, like those that will be offered through the CDBG-DR program, are not duplicative,” Edwards said in a release. “Without this clarification, businesses that took an SBA loan to keep themselves afloat would be prohibited from accessing federal grant money when it becomes available.

“Loans and grants are inherently different, and this bill will allow small business owners access to both federal resources so that western North Carolina, and every small business that makes our mountains such a great place to live, has the resources needed to recover.”

CDBG-DR is the acronym for Community Development Block Grant Disaster Recovery; SBA is an acronym for Small Business Administration.

The Stafford Act doesn’t allow federal agencies to duplicate benefits, and a loan is considered duplicative of a grant. SBA loans must be repaid; CDBG-DR grants are one-time payments to victims that do not have to be repaid.

A sunset passed in 2021 on the Disaster Recovery Reform Act of 2018 that, temporarily, said a loan is not part of a grant, Edwards’ release said.

The American Relief Act aiding in Helene recovery awarded $1.65 billion in disaster block grants to western North Carolina.

(The Center Square) — Louisiana voters overwhelmingly rejected four proposed constitutional amendments which aimed to reshape the state’s approach to justice, juvenile crime, taxation, and judicial elections. Each amendment was rejected by more than 60% of voters.

“This was a “primal scream” kind of vote, driven by robust Democratic EV turnout that I’m not seeing being offset by a strong GOP Election Day vote,” John Couvillon, an award-winning pollster, said in a post on X. 

“Although we are disappointed in tonight’s results, we do not see this as a failure. We realize how hard positive change can be to implement in a state that is conditioned for failure,” Gov. Jeff Landry said in a statement. “We will continue working to give our citizens more opportunities to keep more of their hard-earned money and provide a better future for Louisianians. This is not the end for us, and we will continue to fight to make the generational changes for Louisiana to succeed.” 

Amendment 1: Expanded Court Powers and Specialty Courts

Voters rejected a measure expanding the Louisiana Supreme Court’s disciplinary authority over out-of-state attorneys and allowing lawmakers to establish specialized trial courts that cross district lines. The amendment followed controversy over mass hurricane lawsuits filed by an out-of-state law firm and was challenged in court earlier this month. Amendment 1 was rejected by over 170,000 votes.

Amendment 2: Sweeping Fiscal Overhaul

Amendment 2, which would have rewrote Article VII of the Louisiana Constitution, was rejected by over 150,000 votes. The 100+ page overhaul includes capping state spending growth, consolidating reserve funds, shifting nearly $2 billion from education savings accounts to pay down retirement debt, and phasing out business inventory taxes. It has been a cornerstone of Landry’s tax reform agenda. 

Amendment 3: Adult Prosecution for Juveniles

This amendment would allow lawmakers to expand the list of crimes for which minors can be tried as adults without another constitutional vote. Authored by Sen. Heather Cloud, R-Turkey Creek and opposed by youth justice advocates who argue the current list is already broad enough, Amendment 3 saw the most resounding rejection−a margin of over 180,000.

Amendment 4: Judicial Election Timing Fix

A technical amendment to align special judicial election timing with Louisiana’s soon-to-be closed-party primary system was rejected by over 120,000. Supporters say it prevents logistical issues when filling judicial vacancies; opponents said the change was minor and could have been handled by statute. It was the only measure not subject to a legal challenge.