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Everyday Economics: What this week’s housing data won’t tell us – and what it might | National

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www.thecentersquare.com – Orphe Divounguy – (The Center Square – ) 2025-02-17 05:11:00

This week’s economic data is all about housing, with reports on homebuilder sentiment, housing starts, and existing home sales set to provide key insights into market conditions. While affordability remains stretched, early signs suggest that sellers are adjusting expectations, and builders are adapting to a higher-for-longer rate environment.

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Join economist Dr. Orphe Divounguy and Chris Krug as they discuss the housing market as we round the corner into the buying and selling season on this episode of Everyday Economics! Everyday Economics is an unrehearsed, free-flow discussion of the economic news shaping the day. The thoughts expressed by the hosts are theirs, unedited, and not necessarily the views of their respective organizations.

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What to Expect from Home Sales

Homes that sold in January likely went under contract in December, a period when mortgage rates jumped from 6.7% to 7.1% by month’s end. Buyers who locked in at those levels faced some of the highest borrowing costs in recent months, which could weigh on the upcoming existing home sales report.

Zillow’s latest market report confirms that demand started 2025 on a soft note:

  • Nearly 23% of home listings received a price cut in January – the highest share on record for this time of year.
  • But sellers are returning – new listings jumped 12% year-over-year, and inventory is now 18% higher than a year ago.

Weather disruptions also played a role.

  • Los Angeles wildfires and the unusual January freeze in parts of the country likely delayed new construction projects, home tours, and closings, which could further distort January’s data.

Builders Are Meeting Buyers Where They Are

Single-family housing starts remain resilient, despite the higher-rate environment:

  • Single-family construction in 2024 saw an unexpected rebound, with 1.01 million homes started, up 6.5% from 2023.
  • But multifamily construction has plunged, as rent growth cools and apartment vacancies rise.

Builders aren’t just pushing forward blindly – they’re adapting to today’s buyers by shifting to smaller, denser and more budget-friendly homes. The demand for higher-density housing and mortgage rate buy-downs isn’t a temporary fix – it’s the new normal.

Mortgage Rates Remain a Key Headwind

Affordability isn’t improving fast enough.

  • Existing home sales hit a 30-year low in 2024, but supply – not just demand – was a major constraint.
    – 50% to 70% of sellers also need to buy again, meaning locked-in homeowners stayed put, keeping inventory tight.
  • Late 2024 saw a surprise rebound in sales, likely driven by pull-forward demand – buyers and sellers who feared mortgage rates could climb higher in the spring.

The good news? Mortgage rates have eased in early 2025, but it will take another month or two for this to show up in sales data.

What This Means for the Market

Multifamily developers are pulling back sharply, as rising vacancies and record apartment deliveries flood the market. However, the decline in new projects suggests vacancy rates may peak later this year or in early 2026, setting the stage for a potential rebound in valuations.

Single-family construction, on the other hand, is holding steady. While we’re now below the 1.1 million starts seen in 2021, today’s builders are proving that there’s still demand – if they build the right product at the right price.

Bottom Line

This week’s housing data will be noisy, making it difficult to draw clear conclusions on whether the market is stabilizing or still searching for a bottom. But with sellers adjusting, builders adapting, and rates easing, the foundation for a housing recovery in 2025 is taking shape.

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News from the South - North Carolina News Feed

Voluntary retirement plans healthy, among nation’s largest, lowest cost | North Carolina

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www.thecentersquare.com – By David Beasley | The Center Square contributor – (The Center Square – ) 2025-02-20 18:01:00

(The Center Square) – While the pension plan for North Carolina state employees remains underfunded, the same can’t be said for a separate, voluntary 401(k) style programs for public employees, according to a report Thursday.

There are 294,625 employees enrolled in NC 401(k) Plan, and another 57,413 in the NC 457 Plan. Both plans are designed to supplement public pensions. State Treasurer Brad Briner chairs the board that oversees the two programs.

Briner has expressed concern that the state’s pension plans are underfunded by about $16 billion and rank near the bottom nationally in investment performance.

However, the 401(k) and 457 programs are “among the largest and lowest-cost public plans in the country,” the treasurer’s office said in a release.

The 401(k) plan allow public employees to make contributions with pretax payroll deductions. The 457 plan, also through payroll deductions, is a deferred compensation program.

Michael McCann, managing director of Empower, which manages the North Carolina plans, provided an upbeat report to the state’s Supplemental Retirement Board of Trustees.

“From a plan health perspective, everything is looking really good in terms of the trend line,” McCann told the board. “Average participant balances are continuing to increase. The active participation rate is above its historical norm. The active average employee deferral continues to set higher and higher trends in terms of what participants are contributing.”

Even with an aging population and increased retirements, the plans continue to grow, McCann added.

“We’re also replenishing that population, where total unique participant balances continue to increase,” he said. “Last year, was our second best year ever, beating 2023 in terms of total enrollment.”

Another sign of stability of the plans is loan activity – participants borrowing from their accounts – remained consistent in 2024, despite the heavy damage from Hurricane Helene in the western part of the state.

About 2,000 plan participants did take advantage of the Qualified Disaster Relief distributions that were approved by the board last fall. Participants who lived in the disaster areas were allowed to withdraw up to $22,000 without penalties, and can later recontribute some or all of the amounts withdrawn if they choose.

A waiver extension of the board’s administrative fee for 12 months was approved unanimously. A release says the action will save participants $1.7 million over the next year.

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News from the South - Tennessee News Feed

Grant program for artificial intelligence weapons detection in schools proposed | Tennessee

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www.thecentersquare.com – By Kim Jarrett | The Center Square – (The Center Square – ) 2025-02-20 15:17:00

(The Center Square) – The Tennessee Senate will consider legislation that establishes a pilot program for an artificial intelligence weapons detection system.

One of the grant requirements is a loss of life on campus due to gun violence during the 2024-25 school year, which makes Metro Nashville Public Schools the only system eligible, said Sen. Todd Gardenhire, R- Chattanooga, the bill’s sponsor.

A 17-year-old student at Antioch High School killed one student before committing suicide with a gun in January. Another student was injured.

Metro Nashville Public Schools is implementing the Evolv weapons detection system in its schools.

“The system uses low-frequency radio waves and AI technology to scan individuals as they walk through,” the school system said on its website. “If an item is flagged, school staff will conduct a quick secondary check, making the process faster and less invasive than traditional metal detectors.”

The artificial intelligence system can differentiate between other metals such as cellphones and keys and weapons, the school system said.

Antioch High School began testing the technology just days after the shooting.

The Metropolitan Nashville Board of Public Education approved $1.25 million to place the system in all high schools.

The pilot program begins with the 2025-26 school year. The cost to the state for the start of the grant program is $17,000, but the amount of grant funding is unknown, according to the bill’s fiscal note.

The Senate Education Committee approved the bill unanimously on Wednesday. The full Senate will consider it on Monday.

A companion bill in the House of Representatives sponsored by Rep. Antonio Parkinson, D- Memphis, is assigned to the House Education Administration Subcommittee.

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News from the South - Louisiana News Feed

Bond commission approves over $300M in bonds for schools, infrastructure | Louisiana

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www.thecentersquare.com – By Nolan McKendry | The Center Square – (The Center Square – ) 2025-02-20 15:01:00

(The Center Square) − The State Bond Commission approved a series of tax measures and bond sales across Louisiana, greenlighting over $300 million in funding for schools, infrastructure and public services.

The total sale amount okayed by the commission on Thursday includes significant allocations for education and community improvements.

One of the largest approvals was for the St. Tammany Parish School Board, which secured up to $325 million in general obligation bonds for school construction and improvements. This will fund new school projects and upgrades to existing facilities as outlined in the district’s Capital Improvement Plan.

Another major education-related approval went to the East Baton Rouge Parish Central Community School Board, which received authorization for up to $35 million in bonds for similar school-related expenditures.

The Beauregard Parish School Board was granted $30 million in general obligation bonds to improve schools and other education-related facilities. Additionally, the St. Martin Parish School Board and the Rapides Parish School Board secured $30 million and $27 million, respectively, for school infrastructure and equipment.

Infrastructure projects also received significant funding. The City of Westlake in Calcasieu Parish secured a 1% sales tax for 10 years to finance fire department stations, sewerage facilities, and public parks, among other projects. In Ascension Parish, multiple infrastructure districts, including the Belle Maison Subdivision and Pelican Point Golf Community, were approved for 15-mill taxes levied in perpetuity to maintain roads, drainage, and bridges.

The Lafayette Public Trust Financing Authority was approved for up to $4.5 million in taxable revenue bonds for capital projects, including improvements to the Sans Souci Building, La Place Neighborhood Park, and the Buchanan Warehouse, which is set to become a cultural arts facility.

Public safety funding also saw significant approvals, including a half-percent sales tax in Calcasieu Parish to maintain law enforcement salary schedules and provide for future cost-of-living adjustments.

The Orleans Parish Law Enforcement District will also receive funding from a 2.46-mill tax for the next decade to support jail operations and the sheriff’s office.

Additionally, several hospitals and public health facilities secured long-term funding. The St. Tammany Parish Hospital Service District No. 2 will receive up to $51.5 million in bonds for projects focused on cancer care, emergency care, and women’s and infant health services.

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