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Everyday Economics: What this week’s housing data won’t tell us – and what it might | National

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www.thecentersquare.com – Orphe Divounguy – (The Center Square – ) 2025-02-17 05:11:00

This week’s economic data is all about housing, with reports on homebuilder sentiment, housing starts, and existing home sales set to provide key insights into market conditions. While affordability remains stretched, early signs suggest that sellers are adjusting expectations, and builders are adapting to a higher-for-longer rate environment.

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Join economist Dr. Orphe Divounguy and Chris Krug as they discuss the housing market as we round the corner into the buying and selling season on this episode of Everyday Economics! Everyday Economics is an unrehearsed, free-flow discussion of the economic news shaping the day. The thoughts expressed by the hosts are theirs, unedited, and not necessarily the views of their respective organizations.

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What to Expect from Home Sales

Homes that sold in January likely went under contract in December, a period when mortgage rates jumped from 6.7% to 7.1% by month’s end. Buyers who locked in at those levels faced some of the highest borrowing costs in recent months, which could weigh on the upcoming existing home sales report.

Zillow’s latest market report confirms that demand started 2025 on a soft note:

  • Nearly 23% of home listings received a price cut in January – the highest share on record for this time of year.
  • But sellers are returning – new listings jumped 12% year-over-year, and inventory is now 18% higher than a year ago.

Weather disruptions also played a role.

  • Los Angeles wildfires and the unusual January freeze in parts of the country likely delayed new construction projects, home tours, and closings, which could further distort January’s data.

Builders Are Meeting Buyers Where They Are

Single-family housing starts remain resilient, despite the higher-rate environment:

  • Single-family construction in 2024 saw an unexpected rebound, with 1.01 million homes started, up 6.5% from 2023.
  • But multifamily construction has plunged, as rent growth cools and apartment vacancies rise.

Builders aren’t just pushing forward blindly – they’re adapting to today’s buyers by shifting to smaller, denser and more budget-friendly homes. The demand for higher-density housing and mortgage rate buy-downs isn’t a temporary fix – it’s the new normal.

Mortgage Rates Remain a Key Headwind

Affordability isn’t improving fast enough.

  • Existing home sales hit a 30-year low in 2024, but supply – not just demand – was a major constraint.
    – 50% to 70% of sellers also need to buy again, meaning locked-in homeowners stayed put, keeping inventory tight.
  • Late 2024 saw a surprise rebound in sales, likely driven by pull-forward demand – buyers and sellers who feared mortgage rates could climb higher in the spring.

The good news? Mortgage rates have eased in early 2025, but it will take another month or two for this to show up in sales data.

What This Means for the Market

Multifamily developers are pulling back sharply, as rising vacancies and record apartment deliveries flood the market. However, the decline in new projects suggests vacancy rates may peak later this year or in early 2026, setting the stage for a potential rebound in valuations.

Single-family construction, on the other hand, is holding steady. While we’re now below the 1.1 million starts seen in 2021, today’s builders are proving that there’s still demand – if they build the right product at the right price.

Bottom Line

This week’s housing data will be noisy, making it difficult to draw clear conclusions on whether the market is stabilizing or still searching for a bottom. But with sellers adjusting, builders adapting, and rates easing, the foundation for a housing recovery in 2025 is taking shape.

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News from the South - North Carolina News Feed

Three committees favorable on Senate’s two-year budget | North Carolina

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www.thecentersquare.com – By David Beasley | The Center Square contributor – (The Center Square – ) 2025-04-15 15:45:00

(The Center Square) – The North Carolina Senate’s version of a state budget for the next two years breezed through three committees Tuesday with few changes or opposition.

The proposed budget, Senate Bill 257, includes income tax cuts, and a doubling of taxes for sports betting companies who operate in North Carolina from 18% to 36%.

The Senate spending proposal, unlike Gov. Josh Stein’s proposed budget, fully funds the state’s retirement plan. It also increases funding for the state health care plan by $318 million over the next two years.

It would raise teacher pay and funding for colleges and universities.

“This budget continues the success North Carolina has seen over the last decade and half,” Sen. Ralph Hise, R-Mitchell, one of the bill’s sponsors, told members of the Appropriations/Base Budget Committee.

The first year of the two-year proposed budget is $32.6 billion, the second year $33.3 billion, Hise said. It’s an increase of $1.3 billion, or 4% in the first year, and $733 million in the second year.

He described it as “modest growth” that still allows the state to replenish its “rainy day” reserve fund, which at the end of two years will be back at $4.75 billion. It will bring state funding for a new children’s hospital in Charlotte to $855 million.

It adds another $700 million for Hurricane Helene recovery, adding to the $1.4 billion already appropriated.

“It is also our understanding that Gov. Stein is working on another request for recovery needs,” Hise said. “But as yet, we are not at that place.”

Some of the state funds spent on hurricane relief will likely be reimbursed by the federal government, Hise added.

“We are hopeful the federal government will provide increased and expedited reimbursements,” Hise said. “But we must prepare to fend for ourselves.”

Under the proposed budget, most state employees would receive 1.25% raise the first year and a $3,000 bonus over the entire two-year period covered by the budget, said Sen. Michael Lee, R-New Hanover.

Correctional officers would receive a 5.25% raise with other state law enforcement officers also getting extra pay raises. Local law enforcement officers would receive $3,000 bonuses over the two-year period. Nurses employed by the state would also received higher 3.25% raises over the two years.

Teachers would receive a 3.3% raise over the two years plus a $3,000 bonus. With those raises, the average teacher pay in North Carolina will be $62,407, Lee said.

The proposed budget passed the Appropriations/Base Budget Committee, Finance Committee and Pensions, Finance and Aging Committee with only minor changes on Tuesday.

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News from the South - South Carolina News Feed

South Carolina No. 29 in Rich States, Poor States | South Carolina

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www.thecentersquare.com – By Alan Wooten | The Center Square – (The Center Square – ) 2025-04-15 14:56:00

(The Center Square) – South Carolina is ranked No. 29 in the country in economic outlook in the 18th annual Rich States, Poor States ranking.

Fifteen state policy variables are measured in the ALEC-Laffer State Economic Competitiveness Index, released Tuesday by the American Legislative Exchange Council. Better scores go to states spending and taxing less to attain higher growth rates.






A year ago, South Carolina was 24th. The drop of five spots was matched by four other states and eclipsed only by the 10-spot drops of Mississippi and Virginia.

South Carolina is No. 8 in economic performance rank, a measure that measures 2013-23 for state gross domestic product (11th), absolute domestic migration (5th), and nonfarm payroll employment (8th).

In the 15 variables, South Carolina is top five nationally in just three: estate/inheritance tax levied (none, tied 1st); minimum wage ($7.25 an hour, tied 1st); and right to work (yes, tied 1st). The state was 20th or worse in nine measurements.

The worst categories were each 44th: personal income tax progressivity ($21.43) and state tort system costs (2.54%)..

Among nearby states in the South, Tennessee was No. 2, North Carolina No. 4, Georgia No. 13, Florida No. 15, and Virginia No. 32.

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News from the South - Arkansas News Feed

Arkansas files USDA waiver to limit SNAP junk food | Arkansas

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www.thecentersquare.com – By Tom Joyce | The Center Square contributor – (The Center Square – ) 2025-04-15 14:40:00

(The Center Square) – Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders said she wants her state to eat healthier.

The Republican submitted a waiver to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Tuesday seeking federal approval for her plan to ban soft drinks and candy from Arkansas’ Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), often called food stamps.

“America’s facing a chronic disease epidemic,” Sanders said during a news conference Tuesday announcing her plans. “Obesity, diabetes, heart disease and other chronic illnesses are personal struggles for millions of Americans and driving significantly higher costs in our healthcare system. Sadly, Arkansas statistics are even worse than the nation as a whole.”

Critics of the move, such as American Beverage, derided the governor’s decision, arguing that the waiver won’t improve health outcomes and noting that the beverage industry supports 1,385 jobs statewide and contributes $391.9 million annually to the Arkansas economy.

“Make no mistake, this waiver won’t make an ounce of difference on health,” the trade organization said in a news release. “Obesity has skyrocketed in the last two decades while beverage calories per serving have dropped by 42% – thanks to our industry’s efforts to empower Americans with more choice and information. In fact, 60% of beverages Americans buy today have zero sugar due to our innovation.”

American Beverage noted the change would still let people buy various desserts, snack cakes, and other unhealthy items while only excluding two types of products.

“If Governor Sanders is serious about making Arkansas healthy again, this would be a comprehensive effort – not one narrowly focused on excluding one population from buying just two sets of products in the grocery store,” it added.

Sanders noted that one-third of Arkansas residents are either diabetic or pre-diabetic, a number she wants the state to reduce.

“When the numbers are that high, it’s important for us to examine a system that actively encourages and subsidizes unhealthy, highly processed, addictive products,” she said.

While speaking about chronic illness, Arkansas Department of Human Services Secretary Kristi Putnam said it’s logically inconsistent for a state to pay to make people unhealthy and then pay to try to manage their poor health.

“This makes no sense,” Putnam said. “Everything we do at DHS should contribute to improving health.”

“Why do we contribute to poor health in one program and then try to fix it in another program?” she added.

American Beverage countered, saying Sanders is sending a conflicting message.

“If the Governor is sincere about what taxpayers can buy with SNAP dollars, this sends a ridiculously conflicted message: it’s okay to buy a wide array of desserts, snack cakes and treats, just not soda and candy,” it said. “How does that make sense? Now if Arkansas really wanted to save its taxpayers money, it could eliminate the $44.7 million in SNAP fraud and overpayments in the state.

The waiver also requests that the USDA let Arkansas make rotisserie chicken a SNAP-eligible item; heated foods are generally ineligible for SNAP purchases.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, who attended the news conference, said the request from Arkansas fits President Donald Trump’s public health agenda.

“President Trump has given his administration, our administration, a mandate to make America healthy again,” she said. “This is one of the things he campaigned on and this is what the American people voted for.”

American Beverage noted that Trump also campaigned on U.S. jobs and stands with American workers.

“America’s beverage companies will always stand with our consumers and their right to make the best decisions for their families. We are working every day to deliver more choices and information and do our part in making America healthier,” it said. “And we’re providing the good-paying, family-supporting jobs the president wants – the type of jobs that don’t require you to be on SNAP in the first place. Just as with our consumers, our workers and products don’t deserve to be denigrated either.”

SNAP is a $119 billion program that provides food for lower-income Americans. Yet, 23% ($27 billion) of that spending goes towards unhealthy foods like soda, candy, desserts and unhealthy snacks, according to a news release from the governor’s office.

Sanders said during the news conference that she’s not banning people from buying junk food.

“The government isn’t dictating what you can and can’t buy with your hard-earned money,” she said. “It’s simply saying that taxpayers are no longer going to cover the cost of junk food like candy and soft drinks.”

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