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Everyday Economics: Stock market down, stagflation concerns, fragile incomes | National

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www.thecentersquare.com – Orphe Divounguy – (The Center Square – ) 2025-03-31 06:29:00

(The Center Square) – This week’s economic calendar is packed with key reports and influential Fed speeches, set to provide crucial clues amid escalating uncertainty. Recent inflation data have fanned stagflation fears – with core PCE inflation nudging up to 0.4% month-over-month (from 0.3% in January) and the year-over-year rate climbing from 2.7% to 2.8% – raising concerns that rising price pressures might persist even as nominal income growth continues to moderate. Falling inflation-adjusted incomes could hurt the consumer.

Consumer Spending and Income Growth in Question

A $15 billion decline in spending on food services, travel and hotels reveals that households are making tough trade-offs. With the personal savings rate climbing to 4.6% (up from 4.3% in January and 3.3% in December), it’s clear that consumers are building precautionary buffers amid uncertainty.

Manufacturing & Services: The ISM Outlook

The ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services indices will be in focus this week. These surveys, which provide hints about the health of the manufacturing and services sectors through questions on production, new orders, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories, include a Prices Index that has been on the rise. With input costs increasing, rising prices in manufacturing could signal broader inflationary pressures. Furthermore, April 2 – now being touted by the new administration as “liberation day” – is expected to result in higher market volatility.

Employment Report: The Ultimate Wild Card

Perhaps nothing will shake financial markets more than the upcoming BLS employment report. Uncertainty over the current policy climate means businesses will likely continue to hold back on hiring new workers – hiring rates are already at their lowest levels since 2014. Although layoffs have remained somewhat in check, federal government job cuts could begin to show up in upcoming jobs data. Along with falling consumer and business confidence, the report is expected to show a downtick in both employment and wage growth for March.

Looking Ahead

Since the last week of February, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have declined by 4.9%, 7%, and 10.8%, respectively. For every dollar of lost market value, consumer spending typically drops by 2 to 5 cents, and with the stock market correction already underway in March, early data suggest that the economy is stalling. Yet, in the midst of these challenges, a slowdown in the growth rate of the labor force means wages are still rising faster than prices. Without further shocks and a larger slowdown in labor demand, the U.S. economy might be able to stave off a recession.

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Americans more worried about economy, less worried about immigration, poll shows | National

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www.thecentersquare.com – Morgan Sweeney – (The Center Square – ) 2025-04-03 08:33:00

(The Center Square) – Americans’ concern about inflation, the economy, health the federal budget and Social Security is up, with concern about Social Security hitting the highest level in 15-years, according to a newly released poll from Gallup.

However, the poll also reports that Americans are  concerned about crime, drug use, immigration, and energy costs.

“After the change in presidential administrations, partisans’ worries have shifted significantly on most of the 16 issues Gallup measured, as Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents have become more concerned, while Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are less worried,” wrote Megan Brenan, a senior editor for Gallup.

As always, the economy and economic issues remain at the forefront of American concerns. Poll respondents were nearly equally worried about the economy and the availability and affordability of health care, with 60% indicating they worry “a great deal” about the economy and 59% for health care. Fifty-six percent worry a lot about inflation, and over 50% are very concerned about the federal budget and Social Security. Hunger, homelessness, “the way income and wealth are distributed” as well as “the size and power of the federal government” also register as serious concerns for nearly half of Americans.

Meanwhile, crime and violence, the quality of the environment, the possibility of a terrorist attack on the U.S., illegal immigration and drug use ranked as issues of less concern to Americans. 

“Americans exhibit the lowest concern about unemployment, the availability and affordability of energy, and race relations,” Brenan wrote. 

Americans haven’t been this concerned about health care since the start of the pandemic, while distress over race relations has continued to drop since 2021, when it peaked at 48%, according to Gallup. Thirty-three percent of respondents indicated they were very worried about race relations, while 18% indicated they were “not at all” worried. 

Gallup conducted phone interviews with 1,002 randomly selected adults from March 3-16 for this poll. 

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California quashes bill to ban males from female sports, facilities | California

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www.thecentersquare.com – Kenneth Schrupp – (The Center Square – ) 2025-04-02 19:45:00

(The Center Square) – The California Legislature quashed a bill that would have banned students from using sex-segregated programs or facilities of the opposite gender, after California Gov. Gavin Newsom signaled his support for such a policy while hosting conservative activist Charlie Kirk on his podcast.

“Well, I think it’s an issue of fairness. I completely agree with you on that … it’s deeply unfair,” said Newsom when Kirk asked about whether he thinks it’s fair that boys are participating in girls’ sports.

The bill, Assembly Bill 844, would have required that when it comes to sex-segregated facilities and programs, students of all ages would be segregated according to their sex, not their gender identity.

Bill author Bill Essayli, a Republican who resigned Tuesday from the Assembly to take an appointment as a U.S. attorney, argued that it’s unfair and dangerous for biological males to participate in girls’ sports and access girls’ locker rooms.

“California’s current policy allowing biological males to compete in girls’ sports and access female locker rooms is not only unfair —it’s dangerous,” wrote Essayli in support of the bill. “It violates the privacy of our students, robs female athletes of their hard-earned opportunities and undermines the very intent of Title IX.”

Title IX prohibits sex-based discrimination in any education program or activity receiving federal funding, and is largely credited with increasing female sports and activity availability.

Opponents argued the legislation would result in discrimination and harm transgender students.

“The bill would discriminate against transgender individuals and prohibit them from playing school sports — even if they have been living consistent with their gender identity and receiving treatment for gender dysphoria, for years,” wrote Equality California. “The bill would also invite scrutiny and harassment of any student perceived as not conforming to sex stereotypes, and violate student privacy by requiring students to answer invasive personal questions if they want to play sports or even to use the bathroom.”

The bill failed at its first committee vote, only earning the support of the committee’s two Republicans. Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas, D-Hollister, was the lone Democrat to abstain from the vote as the other Democrats voted in opposition. 

When asked at a press conference Wednesday on the bill, Newsom said the state is facing a “myriad” of issues right now and that it’s not where “all” of his “energy” flows.

“How can you make this fair? And I haven’t been able to figure it out,” said Newsom. “This is not where all my energy flows. You’re talking about a very small number of people.”

“To the extent that someone could find that right balance, I would embrace those conversations,” continued Newsom.

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Essayli resigns from CA State Assembly to accept appointment as U.S. attorney | California

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www.thecentersquare.com – Dave Mason – (The Center Square – ) 2025-04-02 17:18:00

(The Center Square) – A legislator known for his conservative stance on illegal immigration and other issues has been nominated for U.S. attorney for a district that includes Los Angeles County.

Assemblymember Bill Essayli, R-Corona, resigned Tuesday night from the California State Assembly to accept President Donald Trump’s appointment to the U.S. District for Central California. The appointment will require the Senate’s confirmation.

During a Fox interview, Essayli said his top priorities as U.S. attorney would include prosecuting illegal immigrants and those who aid and support them.

In January, Essayli sought answers from Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom about whether bills introduced to “Trump-proof” the state would hinder the president’s mass deportation efforts. Essayli told Fox News Digital he believed money from a $50 million initiative would be used to defend illegal immigrants with criminal records. Newsom’s office later said no funds would be used for “immigration-related services for criminals.”

In 2024, Essayli amended his Assembly Bill 2641 to end sanctuary protections for illegal immigrants convicted of sex crimes against minors. 

After Trump’s nomination, Essayli said he felt honored by the trust placed in him by the president and Attorney General Pam Bondi.

“I intend to implement the President’s mission to restore trust in our justice system and pursue those who dare to cause harm to the United States and the People of our nation,” the former Riverside County legislator said in a statement. 

The Central District consists of Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, Orange, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. The district serves about 20 million people.

Essayli, a former Riverside County prosecutor and former assistant U.S. attorney, became the Assembly’s first Muslim member when he was elected in 2022.

“In just over two years, we have achieved major victories to restore common sense in Sacramento,” Essayli said. “When I joined the Assembly, parental rights, illegal immigration and voter ID were peripheral issues; we’ve made them centerpieces of our party. This past election we added true fighters, and I am confident they will continue the important work needed in the Legislature to make Republicans start winning in California.”

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