Connect with us

The Center Square

Everyday Economics: Retail, housing, and Fed speeches under uncertainty | National

Published

on

www.thecentersquare.com – Orphe Divounguy – (The Center Square – ) 2025-04-14 04:57:00

(The Center Square) – This week’s economic calendar is chock-full of key reports and influential Fed speeches that could reshape our outlook amid persistent uncertainty.

Recent Q1 data have already cast a long shadow over the economy, and all eyes will now be on retail sales, housing indicators, and official commentary as we step into a new stretch of choppy waters.

Retail Sales: A Rebound With Caveats

Retail sales are expected to have rebounded in March as consumers rush to spend when they anticipate rising prices in the future. Yet while spending on essential goods may pick up, discretionary categories are on the decline. This pullback is driven by growing concerns that real incomes will fall – consumers are expecting their future purchasing power to erode.

Wage growth is also under pressure as business investment falters and the labor market remains frozen. Additionally, the recent stock market dive in April will sap wealth, and for every dollar of lost market value, consumer spending typically drops by 2–5 cents, setting the stage for further weakness in next month’s report.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model now estimates Q1 2025 real GDP growth at -2.4%, suggesting a lingering risk that the economy is stalling.

Housing Market: Uncertainty and Opportunity

Get ready for plenty of housing data in the coming week. Homebuilder confidence remains weak due to tariff uncertainty and sluggish consumer sentiment. Housing starts are likely to fall. Despite these headwinds, housing affordability is improving, and home sales could still outpace last year’s figures – especially when you consider that the unemployment rate remains low and mortgage rates remain around 40 basis points lower than they were a year ago.

Remember, while the U.S. has weathered 14 recessions since the Great Depression, real home prices have only dropped significantly four times. Most downturns see flat prices or slowed appreciation rather than outright declines, underscoring the housing market’s resilience.

Fed Speeches and Policy Uncertainty

On the policy front, Fed Presidents Patrick Harker, Beth Hammack, Raphael Bostic, and Mary Daly are slated to speak this week, adding their voices to a growing chorus of caution amid escalating uncertainty. Economic research underscores that heightened policy uncertainty can reduce business investment by 2–3 percentage points and slow GDP growth by 0.5–1% over the following year. Tightening financial conditions could push the Fed to act as early as the June meeting – sooner than previously anticipated – to support a weakening US economy.

The post Everyday Economics: Retail, housing, and Fed speeches under uncertainty | National appeared first on www.thecentersquare.com

The Center Square

WATCH: Trump plans to personally sign off on all trade deals | National

Published

on

www.thecentersquare.com – Brett Rowland – (The Center Square – ) 2025-04-15 14:30:00

(The Center Square) – President Donald Trump plans to oversee every trade deal his team makes, setting up challenges as the White House looks to make deals with scores of countries before Trump’s 90-day pause on higher tariffs expires. 

“He has made it clear to his trade team he wants to personally sign off on all of these deals,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Tuesday. 

The White House has reported that more than 75 nations reached out to Trump and his trade team after Trump implemented a wave of what he called reciprocal tariffs on April 2. Seven days later, Trump announced a 90-day pause on those higher tariffs while keeping in place a baseline 10% tariff and a 145% tariff on imports from China. Trump has made some exemptions to that tariff on imports from China by excluding smartphones, computers and other electronics.

YouTube video

From The White House press briefing 4/15/25


Leavitt reported the president’s team is reviewing 15 trade proposals, but didn’t identify which nations were involved in those deals.

“There’s a lot of work to do. We very much understand that,” she said. “But we do believe that we can announce some deals very soon.”

Trump has singled out China for higher rates after Beijing retaliated it own tariffs, which eventually reached 125% on U.S. imports. China has said at that tariff rate, “there is no market acceptance for U.S. goods exported to China.” Trump has also blamed China for allowing fentanyl precursors to be sold to Mexican drug cartels. China denies that it’s the cause of America’s overdose problem.

Trump said Tuesday that farmers are on the front lines of the trade war with China.

“Our farmers are GREAT, but because of their GREATNESS, they are always put on the Front Line with our adversaries, such as China, whenever there is a Trade negotiation or, in this case, a Trade War,” the president wrote on Truth Social.

Trump said he would help farmers as he did in his first term. 

American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall said farmers are grateful for the 90-day pause but want the tariffs issues resolved quickly.

“We have been engaging directly with the White House, U.S. Trade Representative and U.S. Department of Agriculture to emphasize the toll tariffs will take on America’s farmers and ranchers, who are already strapped because of high supply costs and shrinking paychecks. Creating more market challenges puts at risk more than 20% of U.S. farm income. We’re encouraged that those concerns are being heard,” Duvall said. “We encourage the administration to swiftly resolve trade disputes and to pursue strategies that will ensure America’s farmers can continue to stock the pantries of families here at home, and abroad.”

A tariff is a tax on imported goods. The importer pays the tax and can either absorb the loss or pass the tax on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

In his “Liberation Day” speech, Trump said foreign nations for decades have stolen American jobs, factories and industries. He said the tariffs would bring in new jobs, factories and industries and return the U.S. to a manufacturing superpower.

“Our country and its taxpayers have been ripped off for more than 50 years,” Trump said. “But it is not going to happen anymore.”

Trump has made big promises about his tariffs on the campaign trail and since inauguration. He has said tariffs will make the U.S. “rich as hell,” bring back manufacturing jobs lost to lower-wage countries in decades past and shift the tax burden away from U.S. families.

Some nations, including China, have responded with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. Others have signaled they are eager to make a deal with the Trump administration. Trump has not yet announced any trade deals. Trump paused the higher tariffs for 90 days, giving his administration limited time to make deals with 75 nations the White House reported reached out seeking trade negotiations.

The post WATCH: Trump plans to personally sign off on all trade deals | National appeared first on www.thecentersquare.com

Continue Reading

The Center Square

Tax day: Financial literacy lacking among teens | National

Published

on

www.thecentersquare.com – Casey Harper – (The Center Square – ) 2025-04-15 06:00:00

(The Center Square) – This tax day, one group is pushing for better financial literacy for kids.

The American Parents Coalition is advocating for financial literacy education for kids, arguing that studies show students who go through these classes are less likely to fall into financial trouble.

In a message to parents called “The Lookout,” the group points to a survey showing the majority of teenagers feel unprepared and want more financial training. 

“In fact, three out of four teenagers admit they don’t understand basic financial concepts,” the group said in its message, first obtained by The Center Square, and sent to parents Tuesday. “Half can’t explain what a 401(k) is, and more than one in four can’t tell the difference between a credit card and a debit card. Make no mistake, financial literacy programs are crucial and can be integrated into virtually evert grade level, from elementary and middle school to high school and college. The problem is many schools do not incorporate or require classes that teach these practical skills.”

“Some studies have shown that kids who grow up with good money habits are more likely to become financially independent, make smarter decisions with regard to debt and income, and be prepared for unforeseen emergencies,” the group added.

Most states do not require financial literacy classes in their curriculum. 

“According to one 2020 study, individuals who take financial literacy courses have fewer loan defaults and higher credit scores,” APC said. “Unfortunately, only half of states currently require high school students to be educated in personal finance, and of these states, only 11 currently require the class to be a separate course.”

This Tax Day, many parents will wrestle through the tax law complexities, or hire someone to help. Most of them learned the hard way how to pay taxes, manage debt, take out a loan and more. 

APC argues learning the hard way isn’t the only option. They say parents can start simply by paying kids for chores, helping them open a bank account, and teaching them to save money. 

“As parents, we work every day to protect our kids and set them up for successful adult lives,” APC Executive Director Alleigh Marré told The Center Square. “Personal finance and financial literacy tends to be a place that’s overlooked with so much focus given to the day-to-day needs. This Lookout arms parents with simple tools to build good money habits at home and prepare kids to manage their future with confidence.”

The post Tax day: Financial literacy lacking among teens | National appeared first on www.thecentersquare.com

Continue Reading

The Center Square

Helene: Half dozen state temporary housing units occupied 200 days later | North Carolina

Published

on

www.thecentersquare.com – Alan Wooten – (The Center Square – ) 2025-04-14 14:03:00

(The Center Square) – Six state temporary housing units are occupied as western North Carolina continues to get on its feet from Hurricane Helene, the state auditor’s office says.

Two are in McDowell County, and there is one each in Ashe, Avery, Haywood and Watauga counties.

The 29th week of recovery began over the weekend. State leaders and congressional representatives are continuing to request funding from Washington and Raleigh for what is arguably the state’s worst natural disaster.

The storm, which came ashore in Florida on Sept. 26, dissipated over the mountains of three states and left 107 dead and an estimated $60 billion damage in the Tarheel State. Monday marked 200 days since the hurricane, according to the auditor’s dashboard.

The analysis says 6,930 households “indicated a housing need and were determined to be eligible for housing assistance.” This is the number of total housed (2,727), seeking assistance (503) and not utilizing assistance households (3,700).

The number housed represents eligible for FEMA rental assistance or FEMA transitional sheltering assistance. Seeking assistance means these households are in need but not marked eligible for rental or transitional specifically; the households may be utilizing another form of shelter, the report says.

The number not utilizing assistance means the households are eligible for rental or transitional and chose not to use it.

Buncombe County, where Asheville is the county seat, was among the hardest hit regions. Nearly one-third (870) of the report’s 2,727 total housed is from the county. There are 727 of those on rental assistance, and the remaining 143 utilizing hotels. The county’s seeking assistance number, as of Saturday, is 131.

The post Helene: Half dozen state temporary housing units occupied 200 days later | North Carolina appeared first on www.thecentersquare.com

Continue Reading

Trending