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Everyday Economics: Navigating uncertainty from housing, spending, inflation data | National

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www.thecentersquare.com – Orphe Divounguy – (The Center Square – ) 2025-03-24 05:07:00

This week’s economic calendar is packed with key reports and influential Fed speeches – and all eyes will be on how the data shapes central bankers’ views amid escalating uncertainty. The focus will be on new home sales, personal income and spending, and the PCE inflation measures.

1. Housing Market Update

After declining in January, new home sales are expected to rebound slightly – though they will likely remain below year-ago levels. Mortgage rates have been on a roller coaster ride, dropping roughly 30 basis points since mid-February and improving affordability, yet uncertainty is weighing on both demand and supply. The monthly supply of new houses in January was 8.8 months, up from 7.9 months a year ago, indicating that the flow of newly built homes may keep shrinking. Home prices measured by the S&P Case-Shiller index should also show a deceleration. This will be a look in the rear view mirror since the Case-Shiller report will highlight January data. Housing data for January shows resale supply was up considerably relative to demand, hinting that home price growth will decelerate.

2. Consumers Under Pressure

Personal income in January was 4.6% higher than a year ago – down from 5.1% in December – while personal consumption expenditures were up 5.6% from a year ago, a moderation from December’s 5.8%. More strikingly, in January, personal income rose by 0.9% but consumption fell by 0.2%, pushing the personal savings rate to 4.6% from 3.5% the previous month. This suggests that, amid uncertainty and weaker job prospects, consumers are increasingly holding off on purchases and tightening their belts.

3. Inflation in Focus: The PCE Report

The main event this week is the PCE report. In January, inflation measured by the PCE stood at 2.5% year-over-year compared to 2.6% in December, while core PCE was up 2.6% – a deceleration from December’s 2.9%. Although disinflation appears to be underway, if price pressures come in higher than expected, it could reignite stagflation fears. Conversely, faster disinflation might signal that consumer finances are deteriorating more rapidly, potentially triggering further market volatility as investors seek the safety of government bonds.

Looking Ahead

Escalating policy uncertainty – from the new administration’s tariff stance – continues to weigh on the economy by reducing business investment and slowing economic growth. This uncertainty, acting as a negative supply shock, is expected to keep prices somewhat elevated while pulling down real income growth and consumer spending.

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The Center Square

LA seeks $1.9B bailout amid $1B deficit, $38M in lost revenue from fires | California

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www.thecentersquare.com – Kenneth Schrupp – (The Center Square – ) 2025-03-25 19:00:00

(The Center Square) – Los Angeles is seeking a $1.9 billion state bailout after receiving $2.5 billion in state aid thus far.

Los Angeles faces a $1 billion deficit due to spending vastly outpacing revenues — issues that predated the fire and which City Controller Kenneth Mejia has long said are making the city go “broke.”

Much of that funding is set to go toward existing city issues, such as ballooning liability payouts, with $38 million requested to cover revenue lost from the fires.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s order granting extensions for mandatory ethics disclosures of behested payments or conflicts of interest for government officials in Los Angeles County means it could be easier for corruption to go undetected amid an influx of cash.

The area’s state legislators sent a joint letter to Assembly Budget Chair Jesse Gabriel, D-Encino, outlining their funding request. Included items are $638 million for city services and lawsuit payouts, including $250 million for street, sidewalk and street light improvements, $200 million for the “extraordinary spike in liability payouts,” $150 million for replenishing the city’s budget reserves and $38 million to “make up for lost revenues from the Palisades fire.”

The legislators also are asking for $750 million for “mitigation and resilience for city residents,” which includes $700 million for “upgrades to the electric power grid in Pacific Palisades,” $40 million for incentives to switch to electric appliances “that increase reliability during outages” and $10 million for upgrades to the smart-city traffic control program.

Less controversially, the legislators are requesting $301 million to cover disaster recovery expenses expected to be reimbursed by FEMA. 

The request includes $16.5 million for brush fire equipment, staff and vehicles, but also $40 million to address “issues” with the Palisades reservoir that was built to provide water to fight fires but has been left empty for years to make repairs to its plastic cover. It’s unclear why the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power has neglected to keep the reservoir filled, as fire-fighting water does not need to be potable.

The legislators are looking for $15 million for emergency housing vouchers for displaced residents and $75.5 million for the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services to “expedite CalOES processing of FEMA Public Assistance from previous emergencies, particularly COVID-19.” 

The last request suggests CalOES has significant unspent funding due to its inability to process paperwork and that the $75.5 million may be required to be spent on processing labor to unlock already allocated, but paperwork-protected funds. 

“These amounts reflect the City’s ongoing need for support in the areas of site cleanup, housing assistance, public safety, infrastructure restoration and economic support for impacted communities,” concluded the legislators. “These investments are essential not only for immediate relief but also for fostering the City’s long-term stability and preparedness.”

With the state’s revenue highly reliant on capital gains from the stock market, ongoing market volatility could threaten the state’s proposed $322 billion budget, which includes a $7 billion reserve withdrawal. This revenue volatility could spell trouble for the state’s ability to bail out Los Angeles, as broad budget cuts may be necessary. 

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ICE Houston agents arrest more than 600 criminal noncitizens | Texas

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www.thecentersquare.com – Bethany Blankley – (The Center Square – ) 2025-03-25 15:09:00

(The Center Square) – U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents based in Houston continue to arrest and remove violent criminals illegally in the U.S. In several targeted operations, agents arrested more than 600 criminal foreign nationals, including scores who were previously deported multiple times, confirmed gang members, sex offenders and fugitives.

ICE agents recently removed Orbelin Benitez-Carbajal, a criminal Mexican national previously deported and convicted of manslaughter. He was returned to Mexico last week after previously being deported in 2014 and illegally reentering the country last January. His criminal record includes manslaughter and assault in Travis County, driving while intoxicated in Austin and illegal entry in west Texas in January 2024.

An-eight time removed Mexico national, Baltazar Pantoja Calderon, was also removed from the U.S. this month. He was convicted on charges of kidnapping, driving while intoxicated, illegal entry and resisting arrest. Each time he illegally entered the U.S., he was caught and returned to Mexico, including this month.

Another Mexican national, Leticia Caballero Guadarrama, was removed to Mexico this month after having been removed six times going back to 2002. Her criminal record includes 14 convictions, including six for DWIs, six for theft or larceny, and two for refusing to provide identification to law enforcement.

In his more than 30-year career, ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations Houston Field Office Director Bret Bradford said few things “surprise” him, but Guadarrama’s actions were “shocking. After repeatedly entering the country illegally and getting behind the wheel intoxicated, she has victimized hard-working Texans over and over again by stealing their money and property and then attempted to avoid accountability by refusing to provide law enforcement with identification after she was caught. By carelessly flaunting our system of laws, her actions endangered everyone in the community and have wasted significant taxpayer-funded government resources.”

ICE-Houston agents also removed Mexican national Ariel Nunez Figueroa this month who was wanted by Mexican authorities for kidnapping and organized crime. He was allegedly involved in the 2014 murder of 43 students from the Ayotzinapa Teachers’ College, authorities said. He illegally entered the U.S. as a gotaway at an unknown location on an unknown date. Last September, Interpol notified ICE that he was potentially living in the Houston area. ICE agents tracked him down and took him into custody. An immigration judge ordered his removal in January.

“For nearly eleven years, this foreign fugitive evaded authorities while the family and friends of those 43 students who were brutally murdered patiently awaited justice for their loved ones,” Bradford said. “Thanks to outstanding teamwork by ICE, Interpol and the U.S. Embassy in Mexico, we were able to successfully track him down and remove him to Mexico to face prosecution for his alleged crimes.”

In a targeted removal operation, ICE agents arrested nine criminal foreign nationals in the Houston area convicted of a range of sex offenses and other charges. They include a three-time deported Salvadoran charged with continuous sexual assault of a minor; a three-time deported Mexican national convicted of aggravated sexual assault of a minor; Cuban nationals convicted of aggravated sexual assault, sexual battery with a weapon, kidnapping; Vietnamese nationals convicted of abduction with intent to extort money for an immoral purpose, illegal possession of a weapon, burglary, and gross sexual imposition with a minor under age 13; a Mexican national convicted of indecency with a minor; a Philippine national convicted of aggravated sexual assault of a minor and cocaine possession.

In a separate one-week operation, working with multiple federal, state and local law enforcement partners, ICE agents arrested 646 illegal foreign nationals, including 543 who’d been charged or convicted of criminal offenses while in the country illegally, including seven documented gang members. Federal agents executed 71 criminal arrest warrants and arrested 543 criminal illegal foreign nationals.

Those arrested include:

140 charged or convicted of an aggravated felony or other violent crimes like homicide, aggravated assault, or domestic violence;

34 charged or convicted of sex offenses, including aggravated sexual assault of a minor, possession of child pornography, or rape;

38 convicted of illegal firearms offenses, including unlawful carrying of a firearm, alien in possession of a firearm and aggravated assault with a firearm;

52 charged or convicted of illicit narcotics offenses, including drug trafficking, or possession of a controlled substance;

51 charged or convicted of property crimes like burglary or theft;

93 charged or convicted of driving while intoxicated.

“In recent years, some of the world’s most dangerous fugitives, transnational gang members and criminal aliens have taken advantage of the crisis at our nation’s southern border to illegally enter the U.S.,” Bradford said. “After illegally entering the country, many of these criminal aliens have gone on to commit violent crime and reign terror on law-abiding residents.”

Their arrests, he said, have sent a “resounding message to transnational criminal organizations everywhere that the law enforcement community in the Texas Gulf Coast is more united than ever and will not rest until we’ve eradicated these criminal elements from the country.”

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News from the South - Georgia News Feed

School cellphone bill on its way to Kemp | Georgia

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www.thecentersquare.com – By Kim Jarrett | The Center Square – (The Center Square – ) 2025-03-25 13:53:00

(The Center Square) – The Georgia Senate passed a bill 54-2 on Tuesday that would require K-8 schools to have a policy on cellphone use.

House Bill 340 bans electronic devices from “bell to bell,” with some exceptions for students with learning disabilities or medical issues.

“With cellphone use among children at an all-time high, we must take action to protect the integrity of our classrooms,” said Rep. Scott Hilton, R-Peachtree Corners. “Studies overwhelmingly show that limiting phone access significantly increases students’ focus, reduces distractions and fosters a more effective learning environment. HB340 is a step in the right direction toward ensuring that classrooms remain a place for education where teachers can teach, and our brightest minds can learn.”

School systems can decide how they want to store the devices, according to the bill.

High schools are not addressed in the legislation, but it doesn’t keep school districts from enacting cellphone policies for grades 9-12, Hilton said during a committee meeting.

Several education groups backed the bill.

“Research shows that distraction-free classrooms lead to greater student engagement, stronger social interactions with peers and teachers and improved academic performance,” said Miranda Williams, Southeast legislative director for ExcelinEd in Action, in a General Assembly news release. “This important first step paves the way for future legislation to ensure distraction-free learning environments for all Georgia students.”

The House of Representatives passed the bill 143-29 on March 4.

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