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Doctor’s bills often come with sticker shock for patients − but health insurance could be reinvented to provide costs upfront

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theconversation.com – Michal Horný, Assistant Professor of Health Policy and Management, UMass Amherst – 2024-11-21 07:21:00

The price of the doctor’s visit you calculated online might not reflect what you’ll actually be billed.
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Michal Horný, UMass Amherst

You have scheduled an appointment with a health care provider, but no matter how hard you try, no one seems to be able to reliably tell you how much that visit will cost you. Will you have to pay US$20, $1,000 – or even more?

Patients are increasingly on the hook for health care costs through deductibles, co-pays and other fees. As a result, patients are demanding credible cost information before appointments to choose where they seek care and control their budget.

Yet, in spite of recent legislation and regulations, upfront information on patient out-of-pocket costs is still difficult to obtain from both health care providers and insurers.

Predicting out-of-pocket costs

Why is it so difficult to tell patients in advance how much their care is going to cost?

This is a question health economists like me try to answer. Although the fundamental reason is simply the unpredictable nature of health care, the fact that it translates to unpredictable out-of-pocket costs for patients is a policy choice.

Health insurance plans in the U.S. such as Medicare and Medicare Advantage, as well as most individual and group plans, leave a percentage of the cost of care for patients to settle out of pocket. These include deductibles – the amount patients have to pay for a service before their insurance kicks in – or coinsurance, a percentage of the cost of care that patients must pay after they have met their deductible.

Understandably, most patients want to know their out-of-pocket costs before a doctor’s office visit or a trip to the hospital. However, the cost of care – and thus the percentage of the cost patients will pay – often isn’t available until after care has been delivered. This is because of the way health care providers are paid for their work.

Stethoscope lying on top of health insurance bill
How many health care services you’ll need for a given illness or procedure can be unpredictable.
DNY59/E+ via Getty Images

Health care providers typically seek payments for each patient retrospectively, based on the volume and intensity of services they have delivered. But both are hard to predict. A physician usually needs to see a patient before deciding how to address their health care needs. Sometimes, an extra test or imaging scan is needed to confirm a diagnosis or plan treatment.

Crucially, a variety of unexpected complications can occur even during routine procedures. Addressing these unforeseen complications often requires providing unanticipated services and involving other health care providers who might not have been part of the visit otherwise. And these extra services cost money.

As long as policymakers keep health care payments tied to the volume and intensity of performed medical services – which are uncertain – and patient cost-sharing tied to health care payments, patients will not be able to know what their out-of-pocket costs will be in advance. Simply making health care service prices publicly available will not change that.

What can be done to guarantee out-of-pocket costs before patients have their appointments?

Health care delivery as a supply chain

One idea researchers have proposed is to reorganize health care delivery into a supply chain. This would shift production risk to health care providers similarly to how other complex products are offered to consumers.

Consider air travel tickets. Consumers taking a flight from one city to another receive services from multiple entities, such as airlines, airports, aviation fuel suppliers and catering companies. Many of these entities face operational uncertainties such as departure delays or variable fuel consumption due to unpredictable weather. But airlines – as the final link in the supply chain – provide consumers with upfront prices for the entire trip.

YouTube video
The No Surprises Act reduces patient bills from out-of-network providers.

In health care, the principal provider from whom a patient seeks care could serve as the price-guaranteeing entity. They would collect a single, guaranteed price for the appointment and compensate other providers involved as needed. Some researchers have proposed aspects of this idea as a potential way to reduce surprise billing from out-of-network emergency physicians working at in-network hospitals.

However, such a major reorganization of health care delivery would be extremely challenging, as it would require all providers to enter into new contractual arrangements with each other. It would not only cause a legal undertaking of unprecedented scale, but it could also end up being financially devastating for small physician practices.

Co-payment-only health plans

There are other approaches to providing patients with reliable, upfront prices that would not require a complete overhaul of the health care system. The U.S. already has much of the needed infrastructure in place: health insurance.

A primary purpose of health insurance is to protect beneficiaries from financial shocks. Health insurers could modify the benefit design of policies to ensure patients obtain guaranteed out-of-pocket cost information before receiving care.

One way to achieve that would be saying goodbye to deductibles and coinsurance and having insured patients pay for their care only in the form of co-paymentsfixed dollar amounts per encounter, such as $20 per doctor’s visit, $35 per prescription drug fill or $500 per hospital stay. Some insurance plans already offer this.

However, this approach removes incentives for patients to seek care from providers that offer quality services at a low price. It also could potentially increase monthly health insurance costs, also called premiums.

Person with head in hand in front of laptop, holding medical bill as another person looks on with them
Improving how health care is delivered could make for more transparent out-of-pocket costs for patients.
skynesher/E+ via Getty Images

Innovative health insurance design

Based on my own research, I propose that an alternative solution to providing patients with reliable, upfront prices could be implementing episode-based cost-sharing into health insurance plans.

Under this model, health insurers would create bundles of services that patients may receive during a health care visit. This approach would provide patients with a single upfront price for the entire bundle based only on factors known in advance, such as their health insurance benefits and who their principal health care provider is. For example, you would have a guaranteed price tag for the cost of going to the hospital to give birth to a child or replace a joint.

Any deviation from the ultimate cost of care due to unforeseen situations patients have little control over would be borne by the insurer. That is what insurers do for a living – they know how to manage risk. Such a modification to health insurance benefit design would protect patients from unexpected health care costs, while preserving the incentive to seek care with high-value providers. It would also help keep health insurance premiums intact.

Seeking care for a health concern is already stressful. It does not have to be more stressful because of cost uncertainty. Several approaches to help patients know how much their care is going to cost in advance are available for policymakers to consider. In the meantime, patients may need to pick up the phone, call their hospital billing office and hope that the amount they obtain will be close to the amount they will eventually find on their medical bills.The Conversation

Michal Horný, Assistant Professor of Health Policy and Management, UMass Amherst

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I went to CPAC as an anthropologist to see how Trump supporters are feeling − for them, a ‘golden age’ has begun

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theconversation.com – Alex Hinton, Distinguished Professor of Anthropology; Director, Center for the Study of Genocide and Human Rights, Rutgers University – Newark – 2025-02-21 12:35:00

Attendees take selfies at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Oxon Hill, Md., on Feb. 20, 2025.
Andrew Harnick/Getty Images

Alex Hinton, Rutgers University – Newark

At the start of his inaugural address on Jan. 20, 2025, President Donald Trump declared, “The golden age of America begins right now!”

A month later, Trump’s supporters gathered at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference, or CPAC, in Oxon Hill, Maryland, from Feb. 19-22 to celebrate the advent of this golden age.

Gold glitter jackets, emblazoned with phrases like “Trump the Golden Era,” are for sale in the CPAC exhibition hall. There, attendees decked out in other MAGA-themed clothing and accessories network and mingle. They visit booths with politically charged signs that say “Defund Planned Parenthood” and collect brochures on topics like “The Gender Industrial Complex.”

Another booth with a yellow and black striped backdrop resembling a prison cell’s bars was called a “Deportation Center.” Attendees photographed themselves at this booth, posing beside full-size cutouts of Trump and his border czar, Tom Homan.

Former Jan. 6 prisoners, including Proud Boys’ former leader Enrique Tarrio, have also been a visible – and controversial – presence at CPAC.

The conference’s proceedings kicked off on Feb. 20 with an Arizona pastor, Joshua Navarrete, saying, to loud applause, “We are living in the greatest time of our era – the golden age!”

Many subsequent speakers repeated this phrase, celebrating the country’s “golden age.”

For many outside observers, claims of a golden age might seem odd.

Just months ago during the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump said that an American apocalypse was underway, driven by a U.S. economy in shambles and major cities overrun by an “invasion” of “illegal alien” “terrorists,” “rapists” and “murderers.”

Now, Trump’s critics argue, the U.S. is led by a convicted felon who is implementing policies that are reckless, stupid and harmful.

Further, these critics contend, Trump’s illegal power grabs are leading to a constitutional crisis that could cause democracy to crumble in the U.S.

How, they wonder, could anyone believe the country is in a golden age?

As an anthropologist of U.S. political culture, I have been studying the Make America Great Again, or MAGA, movement for years. I wrote a related 2021 book, “It Can Happen Here.” And I continue to do MAGA research at places like this year’s CPAC, where the mood has been giddy.

Here are three reasons why the MAGA faithful believe a golden age has begun. The list begins, and ends, with Trump.

A white man with a dark hat and dark glasses wears black clothing and holds a large painting of himself on a stage.
Elon Musk holds a painting of himself during CPAC in Oxon Hill, Md., on Feb. 20, 2025.
Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

1. The warrior hero

Trump supporters contend that after the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attacks, which they consider a “peaceful protest,” Trump became a political pariah and victim.

Like many a mythic hero, Trump’s response was “never surrender.” In 2023, he repeatedly told his MAGA faithful, “I am your warrior, I am your justice.”

Trump’s heroism, his supporters believe, was illustrated after a bullet grazed his ear during an assassination attempt in Pennsylvania in July 2024. Trump quickly rose to his feet, pumped his fist in the air and yelled, “Fight, fight, fight.”

The phrase became a MAGA rally cry and, in February 2025, it has been stamped on CPAC attendees’ shirts and jackets.

After Trump’s 2024 election victory, many Trump supporters dubbed it
the greatest comeback in political history.” MAGA populist Steven Bannon invoked this phrase at a pre-CPAC event on Feb. 19.

When Bannon spoke on the CPAC main stage on Feb. 20, he led the crowd in a raucous “fight, fight, fight” chant. He compared Trump with Abraham Lincoln and George Washington and called for him to run again for president in 2028.

This is despite the fact that Trump running for a third term would violate the Constitution.

2. A wrecking ball

The MAGA faithful believe that Trump is like a human “wrecking ball,” as evangelical leader Lance Wallnau said in 2015. This metaphor speaks to how Trump supporters believe the president is tearing down an entrenched, corrupt system.

The day Trump took office, MAGA stalwarts underscore, he began to “drain the swamp” with a slew of executive orders.

One established the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, which is devoted to eliminating government waste. DOGE, led by billionaire Elon Musk, has dismantled USAID and fired thousands of government workers whom MAGA views as part of an anti-Trump “deep state.”

Musk stole the show at CPAC on Feb. 20. Speaking to a cheering crowd, Musk held up a large red chain saw and yelled, “This is the chain saw for bureaucracy.”

Speaker after speaker at this year’s CPAC have celebrated this and other wrecking-ball achievements on panels with titles like “Red Tape Reckoning,” “Crushing Woke Board Rooms” and “The Takedown of Left Tech.”

3. The Midas touch

A golden age requires a builder. Who better, the MAGA faithful believe, than a billionaire businessman with a self-proclaimed “Midas touch.” This refers to King Midas, a figure in Greek mythology who turns everything he touches into pure gold.

Trump Will Fix It” signs filled his 2024 campaign rallies. And MAGA supporters note that Trump began fixing the country on Day 1 by “flooding the zone” with executive orders aimed at implementing his four-pronged “America First” promise. In addition to draining the swamp, this plan pledges to “make America safe again,” “make America affordable and energy dominant again” and “bring back American values.”

These themes run through the remarks of almost every CPAC speaker, who offer nonstop praise about how Trump is securing the country’s borders, increasing energy independence, repatriating who they call illegal aliens, restoring free speech and reducing government regulation and waste.

CPAC speakers said that Trump has already racked up a slew of successes just a month into his presidency.

This includes Trump using the threat of tariffs to bring other countries to the negotiating table.

Meanwhile, Trump supporters are pleased that he has been working to cut deals to end the conflict in Gaza and the war between Russia and Ukraine, while reorienting U.S. foreign policy to focus on China.

House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed the prevailing MAGA sentiment when he stated at CPAC that Trump “wrote the art of the deal. He knows what he’s doing.”

CPAC attendees gather at the Gaylord National Resort Hotel and Convention Center in Oxon Hill, Maryland, on Feb. 20, 2025.
CPAC attendees wear Trump-themed clothing at the four-day political conference on Feb. 20, 2025.
Andrew Harnick/Getty Images

American exceptionalism restored

The golden-age celebration at CPAC centered on Trump and his mission to “make America great again.”

Speaker after speaker, including foreign conservative leaders from around the world, paid homage to Trump and this message.

During her CPAC speech, Liz Truss, the former prime minister of the U.K., stated, “This is truly the golden age of America.” Truss, who does not have a current political position, told the CPAC audience that she wanted to copy the MAGA playbook in order to “make Britain great again.”

The MAGA faithful believe that Trump is restoring an era of American exceptionalism in which the U.S. is an economic powerhouse, common sense is the rule, and traditional values centered on God, family and freedom are celebrated.

And they believe in a future where the U.S. is, as Trump said in his inaugural address, “the envy of every nation.”The Conversation

Alex Hinton, Distinguished Professor of Anthropology; Director, Center for the Study of Genocide and Human Rights, Rutgers University – Newark

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Brazil coup charges could end Bolsonaro’s political career − but they won’t extinguish Bolsonarismo

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theconversation.com – Anthony Pereira, Director of the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center, Florida International University – 2025-02-21 07:38:00

Brazil coup charges could end Bolsonaro’s political career − but they won’t extinguish Bolsonarismo

The former president looked disappointed on Jan. 18, 2025, after a judge denied his request to travel to the U.S. for Donald Trump’s inauguration.
Evaristo Sa/AFP via Getty Images

Anthony Pereira, Florida International University

Brazilian politics are getting more dramatic again.

The South American country’s attorney general filed five criminal charges against former President Jair Bolsonaro and 33 others in its Supreme Court on Feb. 18, 2025, detonating political shock waves. The charges include plotting a coup d’état to prevent Luíz Inácio Lula da Silva’s presidency. The other defendants include several former prominent officials, including a former spy chief, defense minister, national security adviser and Bolsonaro’s running mate.

Lula took office in Brazil for a third time in January 2023, after he defeated Bolsonaro in the 2022 presidential election. Bolsonaro, a right-wing politician allied with U.S. President Donald Trump, had served the previous four-year term. Bolsonaro and his codefendants are also charged with trying to poison Lula and assassinate his vice presidential running mate, Geraldo Alckmin, and Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes; participating in an armed criminal organization; and seeking to violently overthrow the democratic rule of law. He denies doing anything wrong.

As a professor of Brazilian politics, I believe that Bolsonaro’s legal troubles threaten to definitively end his political career. There’s also a possibility that the 69-year-old former president will be sentenced to prison. But, at the same time, the charges could also galvanize Bolsonaro’s base – playing into a narrative that sees the right-wing leader as stymied, unfairly, by the government he used to run.

No sash passed

Bolsonaro’s behavior before, during and after his second presidential campaign was unusual for any president seeking another term. He claimed, when he was still in office, that Brazil’s electronic voting system was not secure and predicted that fraud might crop up in the 2022 elections.

Although he never produced any evidence to support this claim, he promoted it on social media, fostering skepticism about the election among some voters.

Bolsonaro never formally conceded his narrow electoral defeat to Lula in October 2022, insinuating that instead the election had been stolen. In 2023, Brazil’s Supreme Electoral Court ruled that he had abused his power and banned him from running for political office again for the next eight years.

Instead of attending Lula’s inauguration on Jan. 1, 2023, where he would have been expected to participate in the traditional passing of the sash from the incumbent to the incoming president, Bolsonaro flew to Orlando, Florida, on Dec. 30, 2022. He stayed in Kissimmee, Florida, for the next three months.

That meant Bolsonaro was not in Brazil when thousands of his supporters rampaged through and vandalized three government buildings in Brasília on Jan. 8, 2023. The incident was strikingly similar to Trump supporters’ assault on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

The new charges accuse Bolsonaro of taking part in a conspiracy to delegitimize the elections. The indictment also alleges that after the results were announced, Bolsonaro and the other defendants encouraged protests and urged the armed forces to intervene, declare a state of siege and prevent the peaceful transition of power from Bolsonaro to Lula.

Man in yellow t-shirt speaks to throngs assembled on a beach in Rio de Janeiro.
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro can still draw crowds of supporters, as happened on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro on April 21, 2024.
Buda Mendes/Getty Images

Possibility of prison

The evidence in this indictment is based, in part, on plea-bargained testimony by one of the alleged conspirators, the former presidential adviser and army Lt. Col. Mauro Cid.

The attorney general has also accused Bolsonaro and his associates of being linked to businessmen who paid for buses to take Bolsonaro supporters to Brasília so they could participate in the Jan. 8 attacks, which caused damage estimated at 20 million Brazilian reais (US$3.5 million). And the indictment alleges that the coup plot failed because the commanders of Brazil’s army and air force refused to support the conspiracy, although the commander of the navy did, which explains why he was named as a defendant.

If Brazil’s Supreme Court accepts the charges, which seems likely, the legal battle will begin. If Bolsonaro is convicted, he could go to prison.

Bolsonaro’s defense team, for its part, says that the charges are “inept” and unconvincing. His lawyers expressed confidence that they could win the case.

Man in straw hat, accompanied by a woman in a pink suit, as they lead a crowd of people in business attire.
President Lula, wearing a hat, walks alongside Brazil’s first lady, Rosangela Janja da Silva, in a pink suit, during a rally in Brasilia on Jan. 8, 2025 – two years after supporters of his predecessor staged a failed coup attempt.
Claudio Reis/Getty Images

Narrow path

Bolsonaro and his supporters have long criticized Brazil’s Supreme Court, arguing that it has exceeded its constitutional powers and become a judicial “dictatorship.” They have also pushed for Congress to grant amnesty to everyone who took part in or helped carry out the Jan. 8 attacks, including Bolsonaro.

To date, Brazil’s Supreme Court has convicted 371 people for participating in the attacks. Those convicted have received prison sentences of between three and 17 years.

Unlike in the United States, however, there has been a broad consensus in Brazil that the attacks were illegitimate and unacceptable. This consensus includes many lawmakers on the right and center-right in Brazil’s Congress, as well as in state and local governments.

So, although the example of Donald Trump returning to the presidency and pardoning the participants in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol inspires Bolsonaro’s supporters, his path to achieving a similar result is narrower than was Trump’s.

Meanwhile, Trump’s media company, which owns Truth Social and Rumble, sued Moraes, the judge Bolsonaro is accused of plotting to kill, for ordering the suspension of social media accounts and thereby undermining the First Amendment rights of U.S. citizens. The case was filed in federal court in Tampa, Florida, on Feb. 19.

Any trial of Bolsonaro and the other alleged coup plotters could spark a political struggle.

Brazil’s right wing is currently divided between advocates of hard-line Bolsonarismo – a disruptive ideology that advocates social conservatism, a lightly regulated economy, militarism and a strong executive branch – and a more pragmatic conservatism that works within the conventional rules of politics and is mainly focused on patronage and the management of the spoils of office.

Should Bolsonaro and his fellow defendants be tried in the Supreme Court, those hard-liners could be mobilized and energized.

They would see the trial as the political establishment’s persecution of their political hero. And a struggle to find Bolsanaro’s successor, most likely between his son Eduardo and the former president’s wife, Michelle, would ensue.

The successor would claim the mantle of opposition to Lula, who is eligible to seek a fourth presidential term and claims to want to run for reelection in 2026 – when he would be about to celebrate his 81st birthday.

High stakes

There are, to be sure, some Brazilian politicians who are more moderate than Bolsonaro and would also like to run against Lula next time. They would bring much less baggage to that presidential race.

Their candidacies might offer a possible return to the relative political stability Brazil had experienced for almost two decades before 2013, when the main dividing line in Brazilian politics was between coalitions led by the center-right Social Democratic Party and the center-left Workers’ Party.

To be clear, it’s hard to overstate the potential consequences of the Supreme Court’s deliberation and judgment in this case.

The trial, should it occur, would be televised and also have a geopolitical dimension, because it would be closely watched by advocates of hard-right populism in other countries across the Americas and beyond. The stakes are high.

In the meantime, I have no doubt that Bolsonaro’s supporters will try to use his legal woes to rally his political movement. The judgment of Brazil’s Supreme Court, should it decide to hear this case, could therefore end Bolsonaro’s political career. However, no matter what happens, I believe that Bolsonarismo would still be alive and well as a political force in Brazil and a factor in the 2026 elections.The Conversation

Anthony Pereira, Director of the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center, Florida International University

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Trump’s moves to strip employment protections from federal workers threaten to make government function worse – not better

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theconversation.com – James L. Perry, Professor of Public and Environmental Affairs Emeritus, Indiana University – 2025-02-21 07:38:00

Trump’s moves to strip employment protections from federal workers threaten to make government function worse – not better

Federal workers’ jobs may become more precarious than in the past.
mathisworks/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images

James L. Perry, Indiana University

On top of efforts to fire potentially tens of thousands of federal workers, an early executive order from President Donald Trump’s second term seeks to reclassify the employment status of as many as 50,000 other federal workers – out of more than 2 million total – to make them easier for the president to fire as well.

The order has already been challenged in court by two federal workers’ unions and other interest groups, though no judge has yet issued any orders. The Trump administration is drafting rules to put the order into effect.

The Conversation U.S. politics editor Jeff Inglis spoke to James Perry, a scholar of public affairs at Indiana University, Bloomington, to understand what the order is trying to achieve and how it would affect federal workers, the government and the American public. What follows is an edited transcript of the discussion.

A man stands on the seat of a stagecoach addressing a crowd.
Andrew Jackson, depicted here giving a speech, believed the president should be in control of most federal workers.
PHOTOS.com / Getty Images Plus

What is the standard situation for government employees?

In the 1820s and 1830s, President Andrew Jackson popularized the idea that the president could, and should, hire supporters into government jobs. But by the early 1880s, there was concern on the parts of both Democrats and Republicans that the victor would control a lot of workers who would serve the president, not the American people whose tax dollars paid their salaries.

So the parties came together in 1883 to pass the Pendleton Act stipulating that government workers are hired based on their skills and abilities, not their political views. That law was updated in 1978 with the Civil Service Reform Act, which added more protections for workers against being fired for political reasons.

Those rules cover about 99% of staff in the federal civil service. Currently, there are just about 4,000 political appointees. I’ve seen various estimates that this new executive order would shift at least 50,000 positions from career positions to the political-appointments list.

Some states, such as Mississippi, Texas, Georgia and Florida, have moved to strip employment protections from state government employees, turning protected employees into at-will workers, who can be fired at any time for any reason. These are largely red states, with strong control by Republican governors. Supporters of this move at the federal level argue that at-will employment can work in federal civil service.

This argument is not backed by strong evidence. The evidence supporters offer is that human resources directors, who are often appointees of the governor who changed the statute, claim no one has complained about the change in policy. But that doesn’t include people who are likely to have a different perspective.

It could be that nobody is talking about people being fired for political reasons in these states because they are afraid of getting fired themselves.

What does this executive order change, and why?

The rationale for the new policy is that the administration wants to get rid of federal workers whom leaders perceive as either intransigent or insubordinate – or who they fear might oppose Trump’s policy initiatives. This sets up a conflict between how government workers see their duties and how Trump appears to view them.

Federal employees interviewed by sociologist Jamie Kucinskas during Trump’s first term say they are obligated to look beyond the president’s bidding: They took an oath to the Constitution when they started their jobs, and their salaries and benefits are paid for with taxpayer dollars.

Trump, by contrast, says workers in the executive branch must answer to him and follow his orders.

Trump and others have tried to cloak this effort in language about removing workers who perform poorly at their jobs. That concern is legitimate. The Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey, which surveys hundreds of thousands of federal workers every year about various aspects of their work and working conditions, indicates that in 2024, 40% of those surveyed said people who perform poorly are not fired and do not improve.

But taking action against only 50,000 of the 2 million-plus federal employees isn’t going to address such a wide problem.

There’s a stereotype that in government it can be hard to discipline or fire workers who are not competent at their jobs. The flip side of that stereotype is, however, false: Private businesses are not better at holding poor performers accountable. Survey evidence shows the private sector has just as much difficulty as the government with getting workers to perform effectively.

There’s room for legitimate disagreement about how far federal employees have to go to comply with presidential directives. The people who think loyalty is the key to merit still might not agree on whether that loyalty is owed to the person sitting in the Oval Office or to the Constitution.

A group of people stand outside holding signs.
Protests against the Trump administration have been widespread, including against its policies aimed at federal workers.
AP Photo/Sejal Govindarao

How does this affect government workers?

It’s not clear which positions might be targeted. The order calls them “policy influencing positions,” but drawing the line between policy and administration isn’t always easy.

It’s also not clear whether the change will stick. When the George W. Bush administration reduced job protections for Department of Homeland Security employees in 2005, a major federal workers’ union sued the administration and won.

In the first round of this effort under the first Trump administration, it seemed that most of the people affected would be at the top of the federal hierarchy, probably mostly based in Washington, D.C.

Most of the workers in the federal civil service, though, are not there. They work for the Social Security Administration, giving out checks in Bloomington, Indiana, or other departments and offices around the country. It would be very difficult to classify them as influencing political policy or advocating for policies.

But there are people who are not Senate-confirmed who do have an influence on policy. For instance, at the Department of Justice, assistant and deputy assistant secretaries have influence on civil rights policy or other policies that affect the president’s ability to pursue his agenda. The February 2025 resignation of Danielle Sassoon from her role as U.S. attorney in New York is an example of legitimate divergence between an appointee and the president’s policy direction.

Any workers who lost their protections would likely feel threatened with losing their job and their livelihood. They might, out of fear, be more responsive to the dictates of their superiors.

That might sound good – that if you do what your boss says, you’re doing a good job. But it’s different if your obligations are to the public interest and the Constitution.

How does this affect everyday Americans?

Large majorities of Americans believe government workers are serving the public over themselves. And as many as 87% of Americans say they want a merit-based, politically neutral civil service.

The U.S. has attracted to government service workers who are good at their jobs and able to remain politically neutral at work. Saying that’s no longer important would change the relationship between government workers and their jobs. And it would hurt the nation as a whole if government cannot attract the best and the brightest, or if it sends the best and the brightest packing because they are not comfortable with their work situation, or if they stay but their performance declines.The Conversation

James L. Perry, Professor of Public and Environmental Affairs Emeritus, Indiana University

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