Connect with us

The Conversation

Commerce oversees everything from weather and salmon to trade and census − here are 3 challenges awaiting new secretary

Published

on

theconversation.com – Linda J. Bilmes, Daniel Patrick Moynihan Senior Lecturer in Public Policy and Public Finance, Harvard Kennedy School – 2025-01-28 14:05:00

Commerce oversees everything from weather and salmon to trade and census − here are 3 challenges awaiting new secretary

Howard Lutnick, left, is President Donald Trump’s nominee to run the Commerce Department.
AP Photo/Evan Vucci

Linda J. Bilmes, Harvard Kennedy School

The U.S. secretary of commerce oversees the smallest but arguably most complex of all Cabinet-level departments.

Established as a distinct entity in 1913, it has evolved into a sprawling organization with 13 bureaus spanning a wide variety of critical areas that include weather forecasting, conducting the census, estimating gross domestic product, managing fisheries, promoting U.S. exports, setting standards for new technology and allocating radio frequency spectrum. It is even home to one of America’s eight uniformed military services, the NOAA Commissioned Officer Corps with its own fleet of ships, aircraft and 321 commissioned officers. Its main mission is to monitor oceans, waterways and the atmosphere in support of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.

As a result, there is no other Cabinet position that has to engage with lawmakers in Congress across so many disparate technical issues, committees and stakeholders. This medley reflects both the historical evolution of the U.S. economy and a degree of political happenstance.

I served at the Commerce Department in several roles, including as chief financial officer and assistant secretary for administration, management and budget, and have watched several administrations attempt to craft an overarching strategic narrative around this diverse set of missions.

Besides the difficult job of formulating a unifying strategy for the department’s many activities, I believe there are three specific challenges in particular that await the next secretary, a position that requires Senate confirmation.

A male coho salmon with red gills emerges from a creek
The Commerce Department manages salmon as part of its National Marine Fisheries Service.
AP Photo/Manuel Valdes

Commerce: A sprawling bureauocracy

From its earliest days, the Commerce Department has collected trade statistics, overseen lighthouses and issued patents and trademarks. But since then, its portfolio has expanded significantly.

In 1970, NOAA was placed inside Commerce, partly as a result of a feud between President Richard Nixon and his interior secretary, Wally Hickel, over the Vietnam War. NOAA now accounts for more than half the department’s US$11 billion budget and has created some peculiar departmental overlaps.

As President Barack Obama joked in his 2011 State of the Union speech, “The Interior Department is in charge of salmon while they’re in freshwater, but the Commerce Department handles them when they’re in saltwater.”

While the joke wasn’t quite accurate – a division of Commerce manages salmon in both fresh and saltwater, though Interior does restore their habitat – it does reflect some odd situations. For example, when it comes to sea turtles, Interior oversees their nests on shore, whereas Commerce protects them in the open sea.

Due to the department’s broad interests, the commerce secretary has a role in nearly every important issue facing the country.

He or she needs to be a quick study who is able to multitask, respond to congressional inquiries on a myriad of topics, as well as manage a 50,000-strong workforce including economists, scientists, statisticians, meteorologists and other experts.

One example of the caliber of experts Commerce oversees is the National Institute for Standards and Technology, which does cutting-edge research in bioscience, artificial intelligence, materials science and industrial measurement standards. The institute currently has five Nobel laureates in physics and chemistry on its staff and is on the front lines on cybersecurity and national defense.

While it’s unclear how Trump nominee Howard Lutnick plans to unify Commerce’s work, the previous secretary, Gina Raimondo, outlined five strategic goals for her department, including driving U.S. global competitiveness, using data to find new opportunities and modernizing its services and capabilities.

The Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation is holding a hearing on Jan. 29, 2025, to consider Lutnick’s nomination.

Challenge No. 1: Another census is just around the corner

The incoming secretary’s biggest challenge will be the decennial census due on April 1, 2030.

The census counts every person living in the U.S. and five U.S. territories. Census data is used to apportion the number of seats each state has in the House of Representatives and to adjust or redraw electoral districts, as well as to apportion federal funding allotted to each district. Consequently, the census receives huge attention in Congress. It will be an especially hot topic because the data collected in the 2020 census had errors due to the pandemic.

Conducting the census is highly labor intensive and takes many years of planning and preparation, which ramp up now.

The Commerce Department must hire 500,000 temporary workers, open local offices and run large-scale field tests, award billions of dollars in contracts, and work with every state, local, county and tribal government in the country to map where people live. This includes dorms, homeless shelters, nursing homes, prisons, oil rigs, boats, tents, hospitals and mobile homes as well as houses and apartments.

The Census Bureau says it began planning for 2030 as far back as 2019 and is preparing to do a test census in 2026.

Trump administration policies, such as ongoing efforts to round up and deport undocumented migrants, will make it even more challenging to count immigrants and other historically hard-to-reach groups. During his first term, President Donald Trump sought to prevent unauthorized immigrants from being counted at all – but ran out of time.

a group of people wearing identical blue suits and some wearing hats stand and talk in the hull of a plane
A NOAA crew on a reconnaissance flight into the eye of Hurricane Milton in October 2024.
Sim Aberson/NOAA via AP

Challenge No. 2: NOAA on the front lines of climate change fight

Second, NOAA is likely to be in the political crosshairs, due to its role as a global leader in studying oceans, climate and coastal ecosystems.

It tracks rising sea levels, ocean acidification and extreme weather events, and forecasts their impact on fisheries, shipping, marine protected areas and habitats. It also runs the National Weather Service and issues severe storm warnings. These and many other NOAA activities are vital to monitoring the pace of climate change and helping Americans adapt.

NOAA’s mission and its budget are sure to be scrutinized by the Trump administration, which has already reversed a variety of policies meant to slow the pace of climate change. Trump himself has called climate change a “hoax.” That and policy proposals that seek to break up or privatize NOAA suggest many of NOAA’s climate-related activities could be under threat.

Challenge No. 3: The patent problem

A third challenge the incoming secretary will face is an ongoing crisis at the Patent and Trademark Office.

Unlike most federal agencies, the Patent and Trademark Office is funded by user fees collected from applicants rather than from tax revenue. This is supposed to make it more efficient and easier to hire staff quickly, but the model is under stress due to a shortage of patent examiners with skills in assessing science, technology, engineering and math applications. The agency currently has a backlog of over 800,000 unexamined patent applications – near an all-time high.

The backlog is likely to continue to grow as artificial intelligence and other state-of-the-art technologies accelerate the discovery cycle, but the slow process of patent approval – two years on average – can throw a wrench in it.

Patents and trademarks are critical to U.S. competitiveness because they reward innovation and discovery and help inventors attract investors.

The Trump administration’s broad federal hiring freeze is likely to worsen the Patent and Trademark Office’s staffing issues, while the back-to-office mandate may make it harder to recruit patent examiners, who often work remotely.

On top of this, Elon Musk, whose companies hold large numbers of patents and who already holds tremendous sway in the Trump administration, says “patents are for the weak” and compared them with landmines in warfare. “They don’t actually help advance things,” he said. “They just stop others from following you.”

In addition to these three areas, Commerce’s roles in international trade, telecommunications, industrial security and other matters could also become epicenters of any global crisis.

This all adds up to an uncomfortable mix of political and operational challenges for the next secretary.

This story is part of a series of profiles explaining Cabinet and high-level administration positions.The Conversation

Linda J. Bilmes, Daniel Patrick Moynihan Senior Lecturer in Public Policy and Public Finance, Harvard Kennedy School

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Read More

The post Commerce oversees everything from weather and salmon to trade and census − here are 3 challenges awaiting new secretary appeared first on theconversation.com

The Conversation

Out-of-balance bacteria is linked to multiple sclerosis − the ratio can predict severity of disease

Published

on

theconversation.com – Ashutosh Mangalam, Associate Professor of Pathology, University of Iowa – 2025-03-03 14:03:00

Out-of-balance bacteria is linked to multiple sclerosis − the ratio can predict severity of disease

The myelin sheaths insulating neurons are damaged in multiple sclerosis.
Steve Gschmeissner/Science Photo Library/Brand X Pictures via Getty Images

Ashutosh Mangalam, University of Iowa

Multiple sclerosis is a disease that results when the immune system mistakenly attacks the brain and spinal cord. It affects nearly one million people in the U.S. and over 2.8 million worldwide. While genetics play a role in the risk of developing multiple sclerosis, environmental factors such as diet, infectious disease and gut health are major contributors.

The environment plays a key role in determining who develops multiple sclerosis, and this is evident from twin studies. Among identical twins who share 100% of their genes, one twin has a roughly 25% chance of developing MS if the other twin has the disease. For fraternal twins who share 50% of their genes, this rate drops to around 2%.

Scientists have long suspected that gut bacteria may influence a person’s risk of developing multiple sclerosis. But studies so far have had inconsistent findings.

To address these inconsistencies, my colleagues and I used what researchers call a bedside-to-bench-to-bedside approach: starting with samples from patients with multiple sclerosis, conducting lab experiments on these samples, then confirming our findings in patients.

In our newly published research, we found that the ratio of two bacteria in the gut can predict multiple sclerosis severity in patients, highlighting the importance of the microbiome and gut health in this disease.

Microscopy image of large clump of rod-like bacteria
Akkermansia is commonly found in the human gut microbiome.
Zhang et al/Microbial Biotechnology, CC BY-SA

Bedside to bench

First, we analyzed the chemical and bacterial gut composition of patients with multiple sclerosis, confirming that they had gut inflammation and different types of gut bacteria compared with people without multiple sclerosis.

Specifically, we showed that a group of bacteria called Blautia was more common in multiple sclerosis patients, while Prevotella, a bacterial species consistently linked to a healthy gut, was found in lower amounts.

In a separate experiment in mice, we observed that the balance between two gut bacteria, Bifidobacterium and Akkermansia, was critical in distinguishing mice with or without multiple sclerosis-like disease. Mice with multiple sclerosis-like symptoms had increased levels of Akkermansia and decreased levels of Bifidobacterium in their stool or gut lining.

Bench to bedside

To explore this further, we treated mice with antibiotics to remove all their gut bacteria. Then, we gave either Blautia, which was higher in multiple sclerosis patients; Prevotella, which was more common in healthy patients; or a control bacteria, Phocaeicola, which is found in patients with and without multiple sclerosis. We found that mice with Blautia developed more gut inflammation and worse multiple sclerosis-like symptoms.

Even before symptoms appeared, these mice had low levels of Bifidobacterium and high levels of Akkermansia. This suggested that an imbalance between these two bacteria might not just be a sign of disease, but could actually predict how severe it will be.

We then examined whether this same imbalance appeared in people. We measured the ratio of Bifidobacterium adolescentis and Akkermansia muciniphila in samples from multiple sclerosis patients in Iowa and participants in a study spanning the U.S., Latin America and Europe.

Our findings were consistent: Patients with multiple sclerosis had a lower ratio of Bifidobacterium to Akkermansia. This imbalance was not only linked to having multiple sclerosis but also with worse disability, making it a stronger predictor of disease severity than any single type of bacteria alone.

Microscopy image of clusters of rod bacteria
Bifidobacterium both produces and consumes mucin, a glycoprotein that protects the gut lining.
Paola Mattarelli and Monica Modesto/Katz Lab via Flickr, CC BY-NC

How ‘good’ bacteria can become harmful

One of the most interesting findings from our study was that normally beneficial bacteria can turn harmful in multiple sclerosis. Akkermansia is usually considered a helpful bacterium, but it became problematic in patients with multiple sclerosis.

A previous study in mice showed a similar pattern: Mice with severe disease had a lower Bifidobacterium-to-Akkermansia ratio. In that study, mice fed a diet rich in phytoestrogens – chemicals structurally similar to human estrogen that need to be broken down by bacteria for beneficial health effects – developed milder disease than those on a diet without phytoestrogens. Previously we have shown that people with multiple sclerosis lack gut bacteria that can metabolize phytoestrogen.

Although the precise mechanisms behind the link between the Bifidobacterium-to- Akkermansia ratio and multiple sclerosis is unknown, researchers have a theory. Both types of bacteria consume mucin, a substance that protects the gut lining. However, Bifidobacterium both eats and produces mucin, while Akkermansia only consumes it. When Bifidobacterium levels drop, such as during inflammation, Akkermansia overconsumes mucin and weakens the gut lining. This process can trigger more inflammation and potentially contribute to the progression of multiple sclerosis.

Our finding that the Bifidobacterium-to-Akkermansia ratio may be a key marker for multiple sclerosis severity could help improve diagnosis and treatment. It also highlights how losing beneficial gut bacteria can allow other gut bacteria to become harmful, though it is unclear whether changing levels of certain microbes can affect multiple sclerosis.

While more research can help clarify the link between the gut microbiome and multiple sclerosis, these findings offer a promising new direction for understanding and treating this disease.The Conversation

Ashutosh Mangalam, Associate Professor of Pathology, University of Iowa

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Read More

The post Out-of-balance bacteria is linked to multiple sclerosis − the ratio can predict severity of disease appeared first on theconversation.com

Continue Reading

The Conversation

How are clouds’ shapes made? A scientist explains the different cloud types and how they help forecast weather

Published

on

theconversation.com – Ross Lazear, Instructor in Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York – 2025-03-03 07:18:00

Lenticular clouds, like this one over a mountain in Chile, can look like flying saucers.
Bilderbuch/Design Pics Editorial/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Ross Lazear, University at Albany, State University of New York

Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to curiouskidsus@theconversation.com.


How are clouds’ shapes made? – Amanda, age 5, Chile


I’m a meteorologist, and I’ve been fascinated by weather since I was 8 years old. I grew up in Minnesota, where the weather changes from wind-whipping blizzards in winter to severe thunderstorms – sometimes with tornadoes – in the summer. So, it’s not all that surprising that I’ve spent most of my life looking at clouds.

All clouds form as a result of saturation – that’s when the air contains so much water vapor that it begins producing liquid or ice.

Once you understand how certain clouds develop their shapes, you can learn to forecast the weather.

A view showing typical cloud heights shows tall cumulonimbus clouds, low level cumulus and high-level cirrus.
Cloud types show their general heights.
Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Cotton ball cumulus clouds

Clouds that look like cartoon cotton balls or cauliflower are made up of tiny liquid water droplets and are called cumulus clouds.

Often, these are fair-weather clouds that form when the Sun warms the ground and the warm air rises. You’ll often see them on humid summer days.

A horse or donkey next to river bank with puffy clouds in the sky.
Cumulus clouds over Lander, Wyo.
Ross Lazear, CC BY-ND

However, if the air is particularly warm and humid, and the atmosphere above is much colder, cumulus clouds can rapidly grow vertically into cumulonimbus. When the edges of these clouds look especially crisp, it’s a sign that heavy rain or snow may be imminent.

Wispy cirrus are ice clouds

When cumulonimbus clouds grow high enough into the atmosphere, the temperature becomes cold enough for ice clouds, or cirrus, to form.

Clouds made up entirely of ice are usually more transparent. In some cases, you can see the Sun or Moon through them.

Streaks of high white clouds look like paintbrush strokes
Cirrus clouds over the roof of Bard College in Annandale-on-Hudson, N.Y.
Ross Lazear, CC BY-ND

Cirrus clouds that forms atop a thunderstorm spread outward and can form anvil clouds. These clouds flatten on top as they reach the stratosphere, where the atmosphere begins to warm with height.

However, most cirrus clouds aren’t associated with storms at all. There are many ice clouds associated with tranquil weather that are simply regions of the atmosphere with more moisture but not precipitation.

Fog and stratus clouds

Clouds are a result of saturation, but saturated air can also exist at ground level. When this occurs, we call it fog.

In temperatures below freezing, fog can actually deposit ice onto objects at or near the ground, called rime ice.

YouTube video
Reading clouds, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

When clouds form thick layers, we add the word “stratus,” or “layer,” to the name. Stratus can occur just above the ground, or a bit higher up – we call it altostratus then. It can occur even higher and become cirrostratus, or a layer or ice clouds.

If there’s enough moisture and lift, stratus clouds can create rain or snow. These are nimbostratus.

How mountains can create their own clouds

There are a number of other unique and beautiful cloud types that can form as air rises over mountain slopes and other topography.

Lenticular clouds, for example, can look like flying saucers hovering just above, or near, mountaintops. Lenticular clouds can actually form far from mountains, as wind over a mountain range creates an effect like ripples in a pond.

A cloud appears to stream off the side of a tall mountain peak.
A banner cloud appears to stream out from the Matterhorn, in the Alps on the border between Italy and Switzerland.
Zacharie Grossen via Wikimedia, CC BY

Rarer are banner clouds, which form from horizontally spinning air on one side of a mountain.

Wind plays a big role

You might have looked up at the sky and noticed one layer of clouds moving in a different direction from another. Clouds move along with the wind, so what you’re seeing is the wind changing direction with height.

Cirrus clouds at the level of the jet stream – often about 6 miles (10 kilometers), above the ground – can sometimes move at over 200 miles per hour (320 kilometers per hour). But because they are so high up, it’s often hard to tell how fast they are moving.


Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.

And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.The Conversation

Ross Lazear, Instructor in Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Read More

The post How are clouds’ shapes made? A scientist explains the different cloud types and how they help forecast weather appeared first on theconversation.com

Continue Reading

The Conversation

Who’s who at the Vatican?

Published

on

theconversation.com – Daniel Speed Thompson, Associate Professor of Religious Studies, University of Dayton – 2025-03-03 07:18:00

Who’s who at the Vatican?

Deacons take part in a mass in St. Peter’s Basilica that was supposed to be presided over by Pope Francis.
AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino

Daniel Speed Thompson, University of Dayton

For more than two weeks, eyes have been on the Vatican, awaiting news about Pope Francis’ health. The pope has been at Rome’s Gemelli Hospital since Feb. 14, 2025, being treated for double pneumonia and other complications.

When a pope is ill, resigns or passes away, who steps in? And who else helps lead the Holy See? The Conversation U.S. asked Daniel Speed Thompson, a theologian at the University of Dayton, for some insight into Vatican City.

Who are the most powerful people at the Vatican, besides the pope?

The Vatican houses the central government of the Catholic Church and is also an independent city-state. The pope is both the head of the Catholic Church and head of state.

In order to govern both, he has the Roman Curia, meaning “court.” In modern terms, the Curia is the papal bureaucracy. It is an extension of the pope’s authority.

In Catholic doctrine, the pope has the highest authority in the church. He can exercise it alone or with the College of Bishops, made up of all the bishops in the world. Bishops named by the pope to the office of “cardinal” can, if under 80 years old, vote to elect a new pope. Some cardinals, but by no means all, serve in the papal Curia in Rome.

Besides the pope, curial officials who oversee important aspects of the church’s political and religious life are often powerful figures. For example, the secretariat of state, headed by Cardinal Pietro Parolin, oversees relations with other countries and international organizations. It also oversees the Vatican’s diplomatic corps.

Two men in black robes with red skullcaps and red sashes walk on a paved road, flanking a man in white robes.
Pope Francis smiles as he walks alongside Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin, left, and Cardinal Giuseppe Versaldi at the Vatican in 2014.
AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia

The Dicastery – “department” – for the Doctrine of the Faith, led by Cardinal Víctor Manuel Fernández, addresses questions about correct Catholic teaching on faith and morals. The Dicastery of Bishops, headed by Cardinal Robert Prevost, coordinates the nominations of new bishops around the world.

All these officials work under the authority of the pope, advocating for and implementing his agenda. For example, Prevost has suggested that all Catholics should be involved in the selection of bishops. This idea is linked with Francis’ call for a more “synodal” church: one that is less hierarchical and shaped by lay Catholics’ concerns and challenges.

If a pope can’t fulfill his duties, who steps in?

When a pope dies – or resigns, like Benedict XVI did in 2013 – the governance of the Catholic Church formally falls to the College of Cardinals. However, the authority of the college is very limited. On their own, cardinals cannot make any significant decisions concerning faith, morals and worship. Nor can they undo previous papal decisions or change church laws about electing a new pope.

All the heads of the dicasteries lose their office upon the death or resignation of a pope. The College of Cardinals serves as a caretaker government whose primary purpose is to prepare for the election of the new pope and oversee day-to-day workings of the Vatican.

One cardinal, known as the “camerlengo,” is responsible for confirming the pope’s death or resignation. He then assumes control over the pope’s residence and coordinates the funeral, if needed. The camerlengo also takes custody of the Vatican’s property in Rome and supervises details for the upcoming conclave.

A man wearing a priest's collar gestures as he speaks, sitting in front of a framed portrait of Pope Francis.
Cardinal Camerlengo Kevin Farrell talks with The Associated Press in his office in Rome in 2018.
AP Photo/Paolo Santalucia

The day-to-day business of the Catholic Church continues, but no big decisions can be made in the absence of a pope. The church cannot appoint new bishops, and the Vatican cannot start new diplomatic efforts.

Are officials at the Vatican often nominated to be pope?

Sometimes. Francis was a cardinal from Argentina before his election as pope and had not served in the Roman Curia. However, Benedict XVI, Francis’ predecessor, did serve as the prefect of the Congregation – now called Dicastery – for the Doctrine of the Faith. Some recent popes served in the Curia earlier in their career but not immediately before their election.

What do you wish more people understood about the Vatican?

Three things. First, the Vatican is unlike any organization in the world. Its religious mission and political status rest on nearly 2,000 years of history. This complicated story provides a unique tradition that anchors the institution of the Catholic Church, but can also block the church from critical self-examination and renewal.

Second, the Vatican is like every organization in the world. Vatican officials can be faithful to the highest standards of their religion, truly wishing to serve the church and the common good of humanity. But they can also be flagrantly immoral, even criminals, and careerist seekers of status or luxury. Francis has consistently called out priests and bishops who see themselves as somehow superior by virtue of their office or their ordination.

Finally, compared with the massive bureaucracies of modern governments and corporations, the Vatican is relatively small and not as wealthy as it is often portrayed.

Although the Curia manages a vast international organization, its resources are far closer to my own midsize Catholic university than to the U.S. government or Apple. Vatican City and the Holy See employ about 2,000 people, with an operating budget of about US$835 million.

Yes, the Catholic Church has wealth – and the ongoing problem of deficits and financial corruption. But the Vatican’s resources pale in comparison with what a modern state or large company can muster.The Conversation

Daniel Speed Thompson, Associate Professor of Religious Studies, University of Dayton

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Read More

The post Who’s who at the Vatican? appeared first on theconversation.com

Continue Reading

Trending