Mississippi Today
Brandon Presley could have one advantage in governor’s race: the issues
Brandon Presley could have one advantage in governor’s race: the issues
To quote baseball legend Yogi Berra, the 2023 gubernatorial election could be “deja vu all over again.”
In the 2019 election, Republican Tate Reeves opposed expanding Medicaid while Democrat Jim Hood supported it. Hood supported reducing or eliminating Mississippi’s grocery tax while Reeves advocated, instead, for eliminating the income tax. Hood wanted to fully fund public education while Reeves fought the effort throughout his eight-year tenure as lieutenant governor.
Four years later there’s a new Democratic nominee, but the emerging issues feel the same going into the 2023 election. Democrat Brandon Presley, like Hood, supports expanding Medicaid to provide health care coverage for primarily the working poor, supports eliminating the state’s sales tax on groceries and champions fully funding public education.
Reeves still opposes expanding Medicaid, would rather cut the income tax than the tax on groceries and has spoken derisively about recent legislative efforts to fully fund public education.
In 2019, Reeves won by 5% — 52% to 47%. What is different in 2023? Is it the same song, different verse, game over for the 2023 election?
Perhaps. But a breadth of recent polling indicates that on the issues — and solely on the issues — the Democrat wins.
A poll earlier this year by Siena College Research Institute, commissioned by Mississippi Today, revealed 80% support for Medicaid expansion where health care coverage is provided for the working poor with the federal government paying the bulk of the cost. If that is not convincing enough, a second more recent poll by Siena and Mississippi Today found 75% support for expanding Medicaid.
Siena is documented by the FiveThirtyEight Blog, a reputable blog for its data analysis, as being perhaps the best pollster in the nation.
But it should be pointed out other pollsters over the years also have found strong support among Mississippians for Medicaid expansion.
A Siena poll also found 79% support for fully funding the Mississippi Adequate Education Program, which provides the bulk of state funding for the basic needs of schools — needs like teachers, textbooks, buses and water and lights.
Cutting or eliminating Mississippi’s 7% tax on groceries, the highest tax of its kind in the nation, also is more popular than eliminating the income tax, according to the Siena poll.
If all this is true, why did Reeves win in 2019 by a comfortable, but not landslide margin, and why is he favored to win again in November 2023?
The easiest and most obvious answer is money. In 2019, Reeves spent $15.9 million compared to Hood’s $5.3 million on the gubernatorial campaign, according to records on file with the Secretary of State’s office. Reeves plans on similar domination in campaign spending during this year’s elections. Going into this year, the incumbent Reeves had $8 million in campaign cash on hand compared to $723,800 for Presley, the northern district public service commissioner.
Perhaps there are other issues more important to Mississippians than the aforementioned issues that were polled by Siena. But it is hard to imagine issues like education, health care and taxes are not way up on everyone’s lists.
Reeves will want to focus the campaign on other issues more closely associated, fairly or unfairly, with national Democrats. He most likely will have an overwhelming money advantage to craft that narrative and get it out to the public.
And it is easier to sell that narrative because for the vast majority of Mississippians, for whatever reason, their default vote in for the Republican candidate. Mississippi is a solid Republican state that has not voted for a Democrat for governor since 1999 or a Democrat for president since 1976.
To try to make electoral history, Presley will attempt to connect his campaign to the issues of health care, education and taxes rather than those issues that Reeves will want to talk about — those issues associated with national Democrats.
If he can do that, he might have a chance.
Mississippi’s loyalty or perhaps more accurately opposition to the national Democratic Party and Reeves’ money will make Presley’s task difficult. It is a task no Democrat on a statewide level has been able to accomplish for a long time.
But Presley may have at least one distinct advantage in the race: the issues.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
On this day in 1997
Dec. 22, 1997
The Mississippi Supreme Court upheld the conviction of white supremacist Byron De La Beckwith for the 1963 murder of Medgar Evers.
In the court’s 4–2 decision, Justice Mike Mills praised efforts “to squeeze justice out of the harm caused by a furtive explosion which erupted from dark bushes on a June night in Jackson, Mississippi.”
He wrote that Beckwith’s constitutional right to a speedy trial had not been denied. His “complicity with the Sovereignty Commission’s involvement in the prior trials contributed to the delay.”
The decision did more than ensure that Beckwith would stay behind bars. The conviction helped clear the way for other prosecutions of unpunished killings from the Civil Rights Era.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
Medicaid expansion tracker approaches $1 billion loss for Mississippi
About the time people ring in the new year next week, the digital tracker on Mississippi Today’s homepage tabulating the amount of money the state is losing by not expanding Medicaid will hit $1 billion.
The state has lost $1 billion not since the start of the quickly departing 2024 but since the beginning of the state’s fiscal year on July 1.
Some who oppose Medicaid expansion say the digital tracker is flawed.
During an October news conference, when state Auditor Shad White unveiled details of his $2 million study seeking ways to cut state government spending, he said he did not look at Medicaid expansion as a method to save money or grow state revenue.
“I think that (Mississippi Today) calculator is wrong,” White said. “… I don’t think that takes into account how many people are going to be moved off the federal health care exchange where their health care is paid for fully by the federal government and moved onto Medicaid.”
White is not the only Mississippi politician who has expressed concern that if Medicaid expansion were enacted, thousands of people would lose their insurance on the exchange and be forced to enroll in Medicaid for health care coverage.
Mississippi Today’s projections used for the tracker are based on studies conducted by the Institutions of Higher Learning University Research Center. Granted, there are a lot of variables in the study that are inexact. It is impossible to say, for example, how many people will get sick and need health care, thus increasing the cost of Medicaid expansion. But is reasonable that the projections of the University Research Center are in the ballpark of being accurate and close to other studies conducted by health care experts.
White and others are correct that Mississippi Today’s calculator does not take into account money flowing into the state for people covered on the health care exchange. But that money does not go to the state; it goes to insurance companies that, granted, use that money to reimburse Mississippians for providing health care. But at least a portion of the money goes to out-of-state insurance companies as profits.
Both Medicaid expansion and the health care exchange are part of the Affordable Care Act. Under Medicaid expansion people earning up to $20,120 annually can sign up for Medicaid and the federal government will pay the bulk of the cost. Mississippi is one of 10 states that have not opted into Medicaid expansion.
People making more than $14,580 annually can garner private insurance through the health insurance exchanges, and people below certain income levels can receive help from the federal government in paying for that coverage.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, legislation championed and signed into law by President Joe Biden significantly increased the federal subsidies provided to people receiving insurance on the exchange. Those increased subsidies led to many Mississippians — desperate for health care — turning to the exchange for help.
White, state Insurance Commissioner Mike Chaney, Gov. Tate Reeves and others have expressed concern that those people would lose their private health insurance and be forced to sign up for Medicaid if lawmakers vote to expand Medicaid.
They are correct.
But they do not mention that the enhanced benefits authored by the Biden administration are scheduled to expire in December 2025 unless they are reenacted by Congress. The incoming Donald Trump administration has given no indication it will continue the enhanced subsidies.
As a matter of fact, the Trump administration, led by billionaire Elon Musk, is looking for ways to cut federal spending.
Some have speculated that Medicaid expansion also could be on Musk’s chopping block.
That is possible. But remember congressional action is required to continue the enhanced subsidies. On the flip side, congressional action would most likely be required to end or cut Medicaid expansion.
Would the multiple U.S. senators and House members in the red states that have expanded Medicaid vote to end a program that is providing health care to thousands of their constituents?
If Congress does not continue Biden’s enhanced subsidies, the rates for Mississippians on the exchange will increase on average about $500 per year, according to a study by KFF, a national health advocacy nonprofit. If that occurs, it is likely that many of the 280,000 Mississippians on the exchange will drop their coverage.
The result will be that Mississippi’s rate of uninsured — already one of the highest in the nation – will rise further, putting additional pressure on hospitals and other providers who will be treating patients who have no ability to pay.
In the meantime, the Mississippi Today counter that tracks the amount of money Mississippi is losing by not expanding Medicaid keeps ticking up.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi Today
On this day in 1911
Dec. 21, 1911
Josh Gibson, the Negro League’s “Home Run King,” was born in Buena Vista, Georgia.
When the family’s farm suffered, they moved to Pittsburgh, and Gibson tried baseball at age 16. He eventually played for a semi-pro team in Pittsburgh and became known for his towering home runs.
He was watching the Homestead Grays play on July 25, 1930, when the catcher injured his hand. Team members called for Gibson, sitting in the stands, to join them. He was such a talented catcher that base runners were more reluctant to steal. He hit the baseball so hard and so far (580 feet once at Yankee Stadium) that he became the second-highest paid player in the Negro Leagues behind Satchel Paige, with both of them entering the National Baseball Hame of Fame.
The Hall estimated that Gibson hit nearly 800 homers in his 17-year career and had a lifetime batting average of .359. Gibson was portrayed in the 1996 TV movie, “Soul of the Game,” by Mykelti Williamson. Blair Underwood played Jackie Robinson, Delroy Lindo portrayed Satchel Paige, and Harvey Williams played “Cat” Mays, the father of the legendary Willie Mays.
Gibson has now been honored with a statue outside the Washington Nationals’ ballpark.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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