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Atlantic hurricane season 2023: El Niño and extreme Atlantic Ocean heat are about to clash

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Atlantic hurricane season 2023: El Niño and extreme Atlantic Ocean heat are about to clash

Hurricane Florence, seen from the International Space Station in 2018. Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
NASA

Christina Patricola, Iowa State University

The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1, and forecasters are keeping a close eye on rising ocean temperatures, and not just in the Atlantic.

Globally, warm sea surface temperatures that can fuel hurricanes have been off the charts in the spring of 2023, but what really matters for Atlantic hurricanes are the ocean temperatures in two locations: the North Atlantic basin, where hurricanes are born and intensify, and the eastern-central tropical Pacific Ocean, where El Niño forms.

This year, the two are in conflict – and likely to exert counteracting influences on the crucial conditions that can make or break an Atlantic hurricane season. The result could be good news for the Caribbean and Atlantic coasts: a near-average hurricane season. But forecasters are warning that that hurricane forecast hinges on El Niño panning out.

Ingredients of a hurricane

In general, hurricanes are more likely to form and intensify when a tropical low-pressure system encounters an environment with warm upper-ocean temperatures, moisture in the atmosphere, instability and weak vertical wind shear.

Warm ocean temperatures provide energy for a hurricane to develop. Vertical wind shear, or the difference in the strength and direction of winds between the lower and upper regions of a tropical storm, disrupts the organization of convection – the thunderstorms – and brings dry air into the storm, inhibiting its growth.

How hurricanes form. National Geographic.

The Atlantic Ocean’s role

The Atlantic Ocean’s role is pretty straightforward. Hurricanes draw energy from warm ocean water beneath them. The warmer the ocean temperatures, the better for hurricanes, all else being equal.

Tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures were unusually warm during the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons on recent record. The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season produced a record 30 named tropical cyclones, while the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season produced 28 named storms, a record 15 of which became hurricanes, including Katrina.

Two maps showing tropical cyclone tracks. The tracks correspond with warmer water temperatures in the sea surface temperature maps below.
The top images show where Atlantic tropical storms traveled in 2005, on the left, and in 2020, on the right. The lower images show the corresponding sea surface temperature anomalies for the August-October peak of the hurricane season compared with the August-October 1991-2020 average in degrees Celsius.
NOAA

How the Pacific Ocean gets involved

The tropical Pacific Ocean’s role in Atlantic hurricane formation is more complicated.

You may be wondering, how can ocean temperatures on the other side of the Americas influence Atlantic hurricanes? The answer lies in teleconnections. A teleconnection is a chain of processes in which a change in the ocean or atmosphere in one region leads to large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation and temperature that can influence the weather elsewhere.

Sea surface temperature anomalies in degrees Celsius observed during three El Niño events show differences in location and strength of ocean warming.
Three examples of of how sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific change during El Niño events.
Christina Patricola

One recurring pattern of tropical Pacific climate variability that initiates teleconnections is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

When the tropical eastern-central Pacific Ocean is unusually warm, El Niño can form. During El Niño events, the warm upper-ocean temperatures change the vertical and east-west atmospheric circulation in the tropics. That initiates a teleconnection by affecting the east-west winds in the upper atmosphere throughout the tropics, ultimately resulting in stronger vertical wind shear in the Atlantic basin. That wind shear can tamp down hurricanes.

Two illustrations of Walker Circulation patterns. El Niño reverses direction and strength compared with a neutral ENSO, or El Niño-Southern Oscillation.
How El Niño conditions affect the Walker Circulation’s air flow, which can affect weather around the world.
Fiona Martin/NOAA Climate.gov

That’s what forecasters are expecting to happen this summer. The latest forecasts show a 90% likelihood that El Niño will develop by August and stay strong through the fall peak of the hurricane season.

A tug of war between Atlantic and Pacific influences

My research and work by other atmospheric scientists has shown that a warm Atlantic and a warm tropical Pacific tend to counteract each other, leading to near-average Atlantic hurricane seasons.

Both observations and climate model simulations have shown that outcome. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 2023 forecast calls for a near-average 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and one to four major hurricanes. An earlier outlook from Colorado State University forecasters anticipates a slightly below-average season, with 13 named storms, compared with a climatological average of 14.4.

Map showing warmer than normal temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean south of the Virginia.
Sea surface temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius forecast for August to October 2023 shows a warm season relative to the 1991-2020 average for the same months.
Based on NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2)

The wild cards to watch

Although tropical Atlantic and Pacific Ocean temperatures often inform skillful seasonal hurricane forecasts, there are other factors to consider and monitor.

First, will the forecast El Niño and Atlantic warming pan out? If one or the other does not, that could tip the balance in the tug of war between the influences.

The Atlantic Coast should be rooting for El Niño to develop as forecast, since such events often reduce hurricane impacts there. If this year’s expected Atlantic Ocean warming were instead paired with La Niña – El Nino’s opposite, characterized by cool tropical Pacific waters – that could have led to a record-breaking active season instead.

Two other factors are also important. The Madden-Julian Oscillation, a pattern of clouds and rainfall that travels eastward through the tropics on a time scale of 30 to 90 days, can either encourage or suppress tropical storm formation. And dust storms from the Saharan air layer, which contains warm, dry and dusty air from Africa, can suppress tropical cyclones.The Conversation

Christina Patricola, Assistant Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The Conversation

Doctor’s bills often come with sticker shock for patients − but health insurance could be reinvented to provide costs upfront

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theconversation.com – Michal Horný, Assistant Professor of Health Policy and Management, UMass Amherst – 2024-11-21 07:21:00

The price of the doctor’s visit you calculated online might not reflect what you’ll actually be billed.
CSA Images/Getty Images

Michal Horný, UMass Amherst

You have scheduled an appointment with a health care provider, but no matter how hard you try, no one seems to be able to reliably tell you how much that visit will cost you. Will you have to pay US$20, $1,000 – or even more?

Patients are increasingly on the hook for health care costs through deductibles, co-pays and other fees. As a result, patients are demanding credible cost information before appointments to choose where they seek care and control their budget.

Yet, in spite of recent legislation and regulations, upfront information on patient out-of-pocket costs is still difficult to obtain from both health care providers and insurers.

Predicting out-of-pocket costs

Why is it so difficult to tell patients in advance how much their care is going to cost?

This is a question health economists like me try to answer. Although the fundamental reason is simply the unpredictable nature of health care, the fact that it translates to unpredictable out-of-pocket costs for patients is a policy choice.

Health insurance plans in the U.S. such as Medicare and Medicare Advantage, as well as most individual and group plans, leave a percentage of the cost of care for patients to settle out of pocket. These include deductibles – the amount patients have to pay for a service before their insurance kicks in – or coinsurance, a percentage of the cost of care that patients must pay after they have met their deductible.

Understandably, most patients want to know their out-of-pocket costs before a doctor’s office visit or a trip to the hospital. However, the cost of care – and thus the percentage of the cost patients will pay – often isn’t available until after care has been delivered. This is because of the way health care providers are paid for their work.

Stethoscope lying on top of health insurance bill
How many health care services you’ll need for a given illness or procedure can be unpredictable.
DNY59/E+ via Getty Images

Health care providers typically seek payments for each patient retrospectively, based on the volume and intensity of services they have delivered. But both are hard to predict. A physician usually needs to see a patient before deciding how to address their health care needs. Sometimes, an extra test or imaging scan is needed to confirm a diagnosis or plan treatment.

Crucially, a variety of unexpected complications can occur even during routine procedures. Addressing these unforeseen complications often requires providing unanticipated services and involving other health care providers who might not have been part of the visit otherwise. And these extra services cost money.

As long as policymakers keep health care payments tied to the volume and intensity of performed medical services – which are uncertain – and patient cost-sharing tied to health care payments, patients will not be able to know what their out-of-pocket costs will be in advance. Simply making health care service prices publicly available will not change that.

What can be done to guarantee out-of-pocket costs before patients have their appointments?

Health care delivery as a supply chain

One idea researchers have proposed is to reorganize health care delivery into a supply chain. This would shift production risk to health care providers similarly to how other complex products are offered to consumers.

Consider air travel tickets. Consumers taking a flight from one city to another receive services from multiple entities, such as airlines, airports, aviation fuel suppliers and catering companies. Many of these entities face operational uncertainties such as departure delays or variable fuel consumption due to unpredictable weather. But airlines – as the final link in the supply chain – provide consumers with upfront prices for the entire trip.

The No Surprises Act reduces patient bills from out-of-network providers.

In health care, the principal provider from whom a patient seeks care could serve as the price-guaranteeing entity. They would collect a single, guaranteed price for the appointment and compensate other providers involved as needed. Some researchers have proposed aspects of this idea as a potential way to reduce surprise billing from out-of-network emergency physicians working at in-network hospitals.

However, such a major reorganization of health care delivery would be extremely challenging, as it would require all providers to enter into new contractual arrangements with each other. It would not only cause a legal undertaking of unprecedented scale, but it could also end up being financially devastating for small physician practices.

Co-payment-only health plans

There are other approaches to providing patients with reliable, upfront prices that would not require a complete overhaul of the health care system. The U.S. already has much of the needed infrastructure in place: health insurance.

A primary purpose of health insurance is to protect beneficiaries from financial shocks. Health insurers could modify the benefit design of policies to ensure patients obtain guaranteed out-of-pocket cost information before receiving care.

One way to achieve that would be saying goodbye to deductibles and coinsurance and having insured patients pay for their care only in the form of co-paymentsfixed dollar amounts per encounter, such as $20 per doctor’s visit, $35 per prescription drug fill or $500 per hospital stay. Some insurance plans already offer this.

However, this approach removes incentives for patients to seek care from providers that offer quality services at a low price. It also could potentially increase monthly health insurance costs, also called premiums.

Person with head in hand in front of laptop, holding medical bill as another person looks on with them
Improving how health care is delivered could make for more transparent out-of-pocket costs for patients.
skynesher/E+ via Getty Images

Innovative health insurance design

Based on my own research, I propose that an alternative solution to providing patients with reliable, upfront prices could be implementing episode-based cost-sharing into health insurance plans.

Under this model, health insurers would create bundles of services that patients may receive during a health care visit. This approach would provide patients with a single upfront price for the entire bundle based only on factors known in advance, such as their health insurance benefits and who their principal health care provider is. For example, you would have a guaranteed price tag for the cost of going to the hospital to give birth to a child or replace a joint.

Any deviation from the ultimate cost of care due to unforeseen situations patients have little control over would be borne by the insurer. That is what insurers do for a living – they know how to manage risk. Such a modification to health insurance benefit design would protect patients from unexpected health care costs, while preserving the incentive to seek care with high-value providers. It would also help keep health insurance premiums intact.

Seeking care for a health concern is already stressful. It does not have to be more stressful because of cost uncertainty. Several approaches to help patients know how much their care is going to cost in advance are available for policymakers to consider. In the meantime, patients may need to pick up the phone, call their hospital billing office and hope that the amount they obtain will be close to the amount they will eventually find on their medical bills.The Conversation

Michal Horný, Assistant Professor of Health Policy and Management, UMass Amherst

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Transplanting insulin-making cells to treat Type 1 diabetes is challenging − but stem cells offer a potential improvement

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theconversation.com – Vinny Negi, Research Scientist in Endocrinology and Metabolism, University of Pittsburgh – 2024-11-20 07:36:00

The islets of Langerhans play a crucial role in blood sugar regulation.
Fayette A Reynolds/Berkshire Community College Bioscience Image Library via Flickr

Vinny Negi, University of Pittsburgh

Diabetes develops when the body fails to manage its blood glucose levels. One form of diabetes causes the body to not produce insulin at all. Called Type 1 diabetes, or T1D, this autoimmune disease happens when the body’s defense system mistakes its own insulin-producing cells as foreign and kills them. On average, T1D can lead patients to lose an average of 32 years of healthy life.

Current treatment for T1D involves lifelong insulin injections. While effective, patients taking insulin risk developing low blood glucose levels, which can cause symptoms such as shakiness, irritability, hunger, confusion and dizziness. Severe cases can result in seizures or unconsciousness. Real-time blood glucose monitors and injection devices can help avoid low blood sugar levels by controlling insulin release, but they don’t work for some patients.

For these patients, a treatment called islet transplantation can help better control blood glucose by giving them both new insulin-producing cells as well as cells that prevent glucose levels from falling too low. However, it is limited by donor availability and the need to use immunosuppressive drugs. Only about 10% of T1D patients are eligible for islet transplants.

In my work as a diabetes researcher, my colleagues and I have found that making islets from stem cells can help overcome transplantation challenges.

History of islet transplantation

Islet transplantation for Type 1 diabetes was FDA approved in 2023 after more than a century of investigation.

Insulin-producing cells, also called beta cells, are located in regions of the pancreas called islets of Langerhans. They are present in clusters of cells that produce other hormones involved in metabolism, such as glucagon, which increases blood glucose levels; somatostatin, which inhibits insulin and glucagon; and ghrelin, which signals hunger. Anatomist Paul Langerhans discovered islets in 1869 while studying the microscopic anatomy of the pancreas, observing that these cell clusters stained distinctly from other cells.

The road to islet transplantation has faced many hurdles since pathologist Gustave-Édouard Laguesse first speculated about the role islets play in hormone production in the late 19th century. In 1893, researchers attempted to treat a 13-year-old boy dying of diabetes with a sheep pancreas transplant. While they saw a slight improvement in blood glucose levels, the boy died three days after the procedure.

Microscopy image of oblong blob of yellow and pink cells surrounded by violet cells
The islets of Langerhans, located in the pancreas and colored yellow here, secrete hormones such as insulin and glucagon.
Steve Gschmeissner/Science Photo Library via Getty Images

Interest in islet transplantation was renewed in 1972, when scientist Paul E. Lacy successfully transplanted islets in a diabetic rat. After that, many research groups tried islet transplantation in people, with no or limited success.

In 1999, transplant surgeon James Shapiro and his team successfully transplanted islets in seven patients in Edmonton, Canada, by transplanting a large number of islets from two to three donors at once and using immunosuppressive drugs. Through the Edmonton protocol, these patients were able to manage their diabetes without insulin for a year. By 2012, over 1,800 patients underwent islet transplants based on this technique, and about 90% survived through seven years of follow-up. The first FDA-approved islet transplant therapy is based on the Edmonton protocol.

Stem cells as a source of islets

Islet transplantation is now considered a minor surgery, where islets are injected into a vein in the liver using a catheter. As simple as it may seem, there are many challenges associated with the procedure, including its high cost and a limited availability of donor islets. Transplantation also requires lifelong use of immunosuppressive drugs that allow the foreign islets to live and function in the body. But the use of immunosuppressants also increases the risk of other infections.

To overcome these challenges, researchers are looking into using stem cells to create an unlimited source of islets.

There are two kinds of stem cells scientists are using for islet transplants: embryonic stem cells, or ESCs, and induced pluripotent stem cells, or iPSCs. Both types can mature into islets in the lab.

Each has benefits and drawbacks.

There are ethical concerns regarding ESCs, since they are obtained from dead human embryos. Transplanting ESCs would still require immunosuppressive drugs, limiting their use. Thus, researchers are working to either encapsulate or make mutations in ESC islets to protect them from the body’s immune system.

Conversely, iPSCs are obtained from skin, blood or fat cells of the patient undergoing transplantation. Since the transplant involves the patient’s own cells, it bypasses the need for immunosuppressive drugs. But the cost of generating iPSC islets for each patient is a major barrier.

A long life with Type 1 diabetes is possible.

Stem cell islet challenges

While iPSCs could theoretically avoid the need for immunosuppressive drugs, this method still needs to be tested in the clinic.

T1D patients who have genetic mutations causing the disease currently cannot use iPSC islets, since the cells that would be taken to create stem cells may also carry the same disease-causing mutation of their islet cells. Many available gene-editing tools could potentially remove those mutations and generate functional iPSC islets.

In addition to the challenge of genetic tweaking, price is a major issue for islet transplantation. Transplanting islets made from stem cells is more expensive than insulin therapy because of higher manufacturing costs. Efforts to scale up the process and make it more cost effective include creating biobanks for iPSC matching. This would allow iPSC islets to be used for more than one patient, reducing costs by avoiding the need to generate freshly modified islets for each patient. Embryonic stem cell islets have a similar advantage, as the same batch of cells can be used for all patients.

There is also a risk of tumors forming from these stem cell islets after transplantation. So far, lab studies on rodents and clinical trials in people have rarely shown any cancer. This suggests the chances of these cells forming a tumor are low.

That being said, many rounds of research and development are required before stem cell islets can be used in the clinic. It is a laborious trek, but I believe a few more optimizations can help researchers beat diabetes and save lives.

Article updated to clarify that Type 1 diabetes causes the body to not produce insulin.The Conversation

Vinny Negi, Research Scientist in Endocrinology and Metabolism, University of Pittsburgh

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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The Conversation

Should I worry about mold growing in my home?

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theconversation.com – Nicholas Money, Professor of Biology, Miami University – 2024-11-20 07:36:00

Mold growths are common in homes, and unless the damage is widespread, they usually aren’t harmful.

AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Nicholas Money, Miami University

Mold growth in your home can be unsettling. Blackened spots and dusty patches on the walls are signs that something is amiss, but it is important to distinguish between mold growth that is a nuisance and mold growth that may be harmful.

There are more than 1 million species of fungi. Some are used to produce important medications. Others can cause life-threatening infections when they grow in the body.

Microscopic fungi that grow in homes are a problem because they can trigger asthma and other allergies. In my work as a fungal biologist, however, I have yet to encounter robust scientific evidence to support claims that indoor molds are responsible for other serious illnesses.

What are molds?

Molds are microscopic fungi that grow on everything. This may sound like an exaggeration, but pick any material and a mold will be there, from the leaves on your houseplant to the grain in your pantry and every pinch of soil on the ground. They form splotches on the outside of buildings, grow in crevices on concrete paths and roads, and even live peacefully on our bodies.

Molds are important players in life on Earth. They’re great recyclers that fertilize the planet with fresh nutrients as they rot organic materials. Mildew is another word for mold.

A petri dish covered in several types of mold

Mold colonies on a culture dish.

Jonathan Knowles/Stone via Getty Images

Fungi, including molds, produce microscopic, seed-like particles called spores that spread in the air. Mold spores are produced on stalks. There are so many of these spores that you inhale them with every breath. Thousands could fit within the period at the end of this sentence.

When these spores land on surfaces, they germinate to form threads that elongate, and they branch to create spidery colonies that expand into circular patches. After mold colonies have grown for a few days, they start producing a new generation of spores.

Where do indoor molds grow?

Molds can grow in any building. Even in the cleanest homes, there will be traces of mold growth beneath bathroom and kitchen sinks. They’re also likely to grow on shower curtains, as well as in sink drains, dishwashers and washing machines.

Molds grow wherever water collects, but they become a problem in buildings only when there is a persistent plumbing leak, or in flooded homes.

A corner of a wall damaged by black mold.

Mold can grow in damp or poorly ventilated areas of your home.

Urban78/iStock via Getty Images Plus

There are many species of indoor molds, which an expert can identify by looking at their spores with a microscope.

The types of molds that grow in homes include species of Aspergillus and Penicillium, which are difficult to tell apart. These are joined by Cladosporium and Chaetomium, which loves to grow on wet carpets.

Stachybotrys is another common fungus in homes. I’ve found it under plant pots in my living room.

When does mold growth become a problem?

Problematic mold growth occurs when drywall becomes soaked through and mold colonies develop into large, brown or black patches. If the damaged area is smaller than a pizza box, you can probably clean it yourself. But more extensive mold growth often requires removing and replacing the drywall. Either way, solving the plumbing leak or protecting the home from flooding is essential to prevent the mold from returning.

A hallway covered in splotches of mold on the walls and ceiling.

A home with a serious mold problem caused by a plumbing leak.

Nicholas Money

In cases of severe mold growth, you can hire an indoor air quality specialist to measure the concentration of airborne spores in the home. Low concentrations of spores are normal and present no hazard, but high concentrations of spores can cause allergies.

During air testing, a specialist will sample the air inside and outside the home on the same day. If the level of spores measured in indoor air is much higher than the level measured in the outdoor air, molds are likely growing somewhere inside the home.

Another indication of mold growth inside the home is the presence of different kinds of molds in the outdoor and indoor air. Professional air sampling will identify both of these issues.

Why are indoor molds a problem?

Indoor molds present three problems. First, they create an unappealing living space by discoloring surfaces and creating unpleasant, moldy smells. Second, their spores, which float in the air, can cause asthma and allergic rhinitis, or hay fever.

Finally, some molds produce poisonous chemicals called mycotoxins. There is no scientific evidence linking mycotoxins produced by indoor molds to illnesses among homeowners. But mycotoxins could cause problems in the most severe cases of mold damage – usually in flooded homes. Irrespective of mycotoxin problems, you should treat mold growth in these more severe situations to prevent allergies.

The head of a fungus, zoomed in under a microscope.

The black mold Stachybotrys is a common indoor mold.

Nicholas Money

The mold called Stachybotrys has been called the toxic black mold since its growth was linked to lung bleeding in infants in Cleveland in the 1990s. This fungus grows on drywall when it becomes soaked with water and produces a range of mycotoxins.

Black mold spores are sticky and are not blown into the air very easily. This behavior limits the number of spores that anyone around will likely inhale, and it means that any dose of the toxins you might absorb from indoor mold is vanishingly small. But the developing lungs of babies and children are particularly vulnerable to damage. This is why it is important to limit mold growth in homes and address the sources of moisture that stimulate its development.

Knowing when indoor molds require attention is a useful skill for every homeowner and can allow them to avoid unnecessary stress.The Conversation

Nicholas Money, Professor of Biology, Miami University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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