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Analysis: Democrats have a ceiling, Republicans keep their lock on Coast and DeSoto County

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A pattern has developed for statewide Democratic candidates in Mississippi: They hit a ceiling of about 47% of the vote, no matter how hard they campaign or how much money they spend.

And populous DeSoto County and the Gulf Coast appear impenetrable for a Democrat. Even Northeast Mississippi, once a “yellow dog” stronghold, is becoming that way.

While election results still are trickling in, it appears that in Tuesday’s election for governor Democrat Brandon Presley performed at about the same level as Jim Hood did in 2019, despite raising and spending about at least $5 million more on his campaign.

RESULTSMississippi’s general election 2023

Hood, a four-term state attorney general from northeast Mississippi, lost to Gov. Tate Reeves in 2019. And Presley, a four-term public service commissioner from northeast Mississippi, lost to Reeves on Tuesday. And that aforementioned pattern is not confined to just the governor’s elections. In 2020, Democrat Mike Espy lost to Republican U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in an outcome that was eerily similar.

Democrats in those races bumped up against the 47% mark against their Republican foes, making the election close enough to be interesting. But close losses in elections do not reap many rewards.

The trend endured by Democrats in recent elections actually began in the watershed 2003 gubernatorial election, when many observers say that Haley Barbour, a Washington lobbyist and political operative from Yazoo City, brought modern campaigning to Mississippi and upended incumbent Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove.

In that election, Musgrove lost 53% to 46% (there was an independent siphoning a few votes) in what is still the highest general election turnout in a state election in Mississippi history.

While Democratic presidential candidates have garnered more votes, it appears that in an election for a statewide office, Hood in 2019 is still the top vote-getter for a Democrat. He garnered 414,368 votes in 2019. In an incomplete and unofficial tally Wednesday morning, Presley was at 370,000, although thousands more votes are likely to be added over the next few days.

Republican Phil Bryant garnered the most votes for governor in the modern era with 544,851 votes against Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree in 2011.

In three races after the 2003 contest, Democrats fielded candidates with limited funding and not much statewide recognition. This dry spell culminated with Robert Gray, a truck driver who had never run a campaign and was not even in state to vote for himself in his victorious Democrat primary, being the nominee in 2015.

But in 2019, Hood, who had won four statewide campaigns for attorney general, gave Democrats hope. And Democrats went into this Tuesday’s election with optimism, hoping the charismatic and surprisingly well-funded Presley could build on Hood’s performance from 2019. After all, Presley, thanks in large part to the Democratic Governors Association, was able to outmatch Reeves’ fundraising prowess — a rare feat for a Democrat in Mississippi. And in 2019, Hood did win some majority white counties, which also provided hope for Democrats.

Hood, for instance, was the first Democrat since 1987 to win Madison County, a Jackson suburb. Hood also won Lafayette and Oktibbeha — two predominantly white counties, but homes of major universities that include a higher percentage of college-educated residents who are more likely to vote Democratic. On Tuesday, Presley lost Lafayette and Madison, albeit by narrow margins. He kept Oktibbeha in the Democratic column. He also picked up Lowndes, a county with a plurality white population that Hood did not win in 2019.

But in the end, the differences in the losses for Hood and Presley — just as the loss by Musgrove way back in 2003 — were differences without much distinction.

Some additional takeaways from Tuesday’s gubernatorial election:

  • Hinds County is fast becoming statewide Democrats’ last and only populous stronghold. Reeves took back Madison County on Tuesday after Hood won it in 2019. Take away Hinds County’s large Democratic vote, and a statewide Democrat stands no chance with today’s Mississippi electoral maps.
  • It would appear record levels of spending by both Reeves and Presley resulted in only mediocre voter turnout. Spending totals by the campaigns will likely top $20 million, and outside interests poured in millions more. Much of this went to mudslinging ads. This did not appear to motivate voter turnout greatly on either side.
  • The Trump effect is still there, but to what extent? Democratic and Republican polling leading up to the election showed the Reeves-Presley race much tighter than it played out, and Republicans were extremely worried about anemic turnout. But Reeves got a late endorsement by former President Donald Trump. Trump remains popular in Mississippi, and it’s certain this helped Reeves, but the extent will likely never be known.
  • A Democratic candidate could use help from a third-party one. Given that 46%-47% ceiling, pushing to a runoff might offer a Democrat a better chance. Many politicos believed Presley’s best chance at survival Tuesday night was for little-known independent Gwendolyn Gray (who had dropped out but was still on the ballot) to siphon votes from Reeves and force a runoff between the Republican and Democrat. But that math required Gray to pull around 3% of the vote, and take it mostly from Reeves. Instead, Gray earned 1.4%, and appeared to take quite a few votes from Presley as well — perhaps in protest to negative campaigning.
  • The Coast remains ruby red. Presley campaigned hard on the Coast, attempting to turn out Black voters particularly in Harrison and Jackson counties and a fairly sizable union shipyard vote. But Reeves still ran the tables there, picking up a nearly 19,000 vote margin, only slightly smaller than his Coast take in 2019.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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Gov. vetoes bill providing hospitals ‘stability’

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Gov. vetoes bill providing hospitals 'stability'

mississippitoday.org – @MSTODAYnews – 2025-04-25 11:08:00

Gov. Tate Reeves vetoed a bill Thursday that would help stabilize hospitals, calling it the “Grady Twin” of a bill he vetoed in March

Lawmakers made some changes to the previously vetoed legislation in a new bill, but kept much the same. Reeves cited many of his same concerns this time around, including alleged contradictions and the loom of a deficit. 

The bill, authored by Senate Medicaid Chairman Kevin Blackwell, R-Southaven, sought to make several changes to the Medicaid program – from mandating providers screen mothers for postpartum depression to requiring the agency to cover a new sleep apnea device. 

Blackwell did not respond to a request for comment by the time of publication. 

Arguably the largest impact of Senate Bill 2386 would have been that it called for locking in place supplemental payment programs that have been a lifeline for hospitals – but which are unreliable as they vary from year to year, according to Richard Roberson, CEO of the Mississippi Hospital Association.

That fluctuation makes it difficult for hospitals to plan what services they can offer. 

“The supplemental payment language was intended to offer better budget predictability as hospitals move through these uncertain times and instructed the Division (of Medicaid) to maximize federal funding,” Roberson said. “… Hospitals, like other businesses, need stability to continue to serve their communities effectively.”

Supplemental payment programs bring in around $1.5 billion federal dollars to Mississippi hospitals each year. 

Reeves said in his veto statements for both bills that locking the payment program in place is in contradiction with another of the bill’s mandates, which would change the program to allow out-of-state hospitals that border Mississippi to participate in the program. 

“It is logically nonsensical for Senate Bill 2386 to, on the one hand, freeze the MHAP, while on the other hand, mandate that the Division open the program to include an additional hospital.”

But Roberson said the language of the bill would not prohibit the programs from growing – it would merely clarify what hospitals need to do to get paid. 

Reeves again said the bill “seeks to expand Medicaid.” The bill brings forth code sections related to eligibility requirements, but it doesn’t call for expanding the Medicaid population by increasing the income threshold, which is what is typically referred to as Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act.

Thursday’s vetoed bill was hospitals’ last recourse for stabilizing their budgets via legislation. 

Richardson says the Mississippi Hospital Association has now turned its sights toward the Division of Medicaid to secure hospitals’ payment programs without the help of the Legislature. 

“With or without Senate Bill 2386, we are hopeful the Division will work to stabilize the model,” Roberson said. 

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

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Parents, providers urge use of unspent TANF for child care

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Parents, providers urge use of unspent TANF for child care

mississippitoday.org – @MSTODAYnews – 2025-04-24 17:21:00

Child care providers, parents, children, legislators and advocates gathered outside the state Capitol Thursday to call on Mississippi to use unspent welfare funds and resume accepting child care certificate applications.

Last month, the Mississippi Department of Human Services announced it will temporarily stop accepting new applications, redetermination applications and “add a child” applications for the child care certificate program for certain families as the result of the loss of COVID-19 relief funds. The hold, started March 31, will continue indefinitely. The program provides child care vouchers to eligible families, often with a co-payment fee.

MDHS explained that without the COVID-19 relief funding the number of families with child care certificates is more than it can support long term. When asked how long the hold would last, chief communications director Mark Jones explained the hold would end when the number of children with certificates dropped below 27,000 children and $12 million in monthly costs.

The week before the hold began, on March 28, 36,186 children had child care certificates. 25,300 of them fit into one of the MDHS’s priority categories. 10,800 did not.

The Mississippi Low-Income Child Care Initiative, Child Care Directors Network Alliance, Mississippi Delta Licensed Child Care Providers, and Mississippi Black Women’s Roundtable organized Thursday’s gathering and  press conference to implore MDHS to tap into unused TANF funds to book the child care payment program.

Carol Burnett, Mississippi Low-Income Child Care Initiative executive director (right), stresses the need to protect access to child care during the Child Care Matters: Keep Mississippi Working press conference held at the State Capitol, Thursday, April 24, 2025.

“DHS has about $156 million in money from prior grant years that has gone unspent,” said Carol Burnett, MLICCI’s executive director, at the press conference.

The child care payment program gets funding from federal and state sources. It received $127 million from the Child Care Development Fund in fiscal year 2024, as well as $7 million in state appropriations, and $25.9 million transferred from the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families grant. 

That $25.9 million is 30% of the state’s annual TANF grant money transferred into funds for child care certificates. It is the maximum amount they’re allowed to transfer under federal law. The state also spends 85% of its money from the child care development fund on certificates, when federal law requires them to use at least 70%. 

MLICCI and others want MDHS to add to that by spending current and carryover TANF funds on child care subsidies for families that qualify for child care certificates. According to a memo MLICCI prepared, this method does not require legislative action, has no  spending limit, and is already used by other states.

Under the current hold, families can apply and get their certificates renewed if they fall in one of the following six categories: on Temporary Assistance for Needy FamiliesTANF or transitioning off of TANF, homeless, with foster children, teen parents, deployed military, orand with special needs. The Division of Early Childhood Care & Development will continue paying for certificates for all families until their certificates expire. 

In a statement, MDHS’ chief communications officer Mark Jones said “MDHS understands these concerns and reaffirms its commitment to support child care, transportation, education, and other needs of families who need to return or remain in the workforce. Our aim is to ensure our approaches are sustainable.”

Burnett, parent KyAsia Johnson, state Rep. Zakiya Summers, D-Jackson, and multiple child care providers talked about the toll the hold has taken on child care centers and families. They also stated the importance of child care to sustain the state’s workforce, keep child care providers afloat, and educate young children. 

They also urged citizens to contact the state’s political leadership to get their attention.

“This decision is putting people like me in an impossible situation,” said Johnson, a child care provider and parent. “What am I supposed to do without child care?”

Each provider spoke about how they had to explain the hold to parents, many of whom have had to pull their children out of day care. Cantrell Keyes, director of Agape Christian Academy World in Jackson, had five families pull their children out of her center. “More than half of my school tuition comes from CCPP,” she said.

Signs list businesses where parents work and who utilize child care are shared during the Child Care Matters: Keep Mississippi Working press conference held at the state Capitol, Thursday, April 24, 2025.

Rep. Summers called on MDHS to lift the hold on child care applications, use the extra TANF funds, and communicate better with parents and providers. 

“Right now, thousands of Mississippi children might lose child care, not because the need has disappeared, but because the agency has made a choice,” she said.

The hold on child care certificates comes at a time when many child care providers and parents are struggling to stay afloat amid high costs, high turnover and high demand.

Deloris Suel, who owns Prep Company Tutorial Schools in Jackson, said, “Child care is in crisis. We’re not heading for crisis, we’re in crisis.”

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

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Tyler Perry comedy about a Mississippi lieutenant governor ‘She The People’ set to stream on Netflix

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Tyler Perry comedy about a Mississippi lieutenant governor 'She The People' set to stream on Netflix

mississippitoday.org – @GeoffPender – 2025-04-24 15:03:00

Netflix has announced it will stream “She The People,” a comedy written, produced and directed by Tyler Perry based on a fictional newly elected Mississippi Lieutenant Governor, Antoinette Dunkerson, played by Terri J. Vaughn.

According to a trailer released Thursday and press about the show, the new Lt. Gov. Dunkerson character realizes her new job will be extremely tough due to a sexist and condescending governor.

Executive producers for the show include Niya Palmer, Vaughn and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. The cast also includes Tre Boyd, Dyon Brooks, Jade Nova, Jo Marie Payton and Drew Olivia Tillman.

The first eight-episode season debuts May 22 on Netflix, with a second eight-episode season premiering Aug. 14.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

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