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Analysis: Democrats have a ceiling, Republicans keep their lock on Coast and DeSoto County

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A pattern has developed for statewide Democratic candidates in Mississippi: They hit a ceiling of about 47% of the vote, no matter how hard they campaign or how much money they spend.

And populous DeSoto County and the Gulf Coast appear impenetrable for a Democrat. Even Northeast Mississippi, once a “yellow dog” stronghold, is becoming that way.

While election results still are trickling in, it appears that in Tuesday’s election for governor Democrat Brandon Presley performed at about the same level as Jim Hood did in 2019, despite raising and spending about at least $5 million more on his campaign.

RESULTSMississippi’s general election 2023

Hood, a four-term state attorney general from northeast Mississippi, lost to Gov. Tate Reeves in 2019. And Presley, a four-term public service commissioner from northeast Mississippi, lost to Reeves on Tuesday. And that aforementioned pattern is not confined to just the governor’s elections. In 2020, Democrat Mike Espy lost to Republican U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in an outcome that was eerily similar.

Democrats in those races bumped up against the 47% mark against their Republican foes, making the election close enough to be interesting. But close losses in elections do not reap many rewards.

The trend endured by Democrats in recent elections actually began in the watershed 2003 gubernatorial election, when many observers say that Haley Barbour, a Washington lobbyist and political operative from Yazoo City, brought modern campaigning to Mississippi and upended incumbent Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove.

In that election, Musgrove lost 53% to 46% (there was an independent siphoning a few votes) in what is still the highest general election turnout in a state election in Mississippi history.

While Democratic presidential candidates have garnered more votes, it appears that in an election for a statewide office, Hood in 2019 is still the top vote-getter for a Democrat. He garnered 414,368 votes in 2019. In an incomplete and unofficial tally Wednesday morning, Presley was at 370,000, although thousands more votes are likely to be added over the next few days.

Republican Phil Bryant garnered the most votes for governor in the modern era with 544,851 votes against Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree in 2011.

In three races after the 2003 contest, Democrats fielded candidates with limited funding and not much statewide recognition. This dry spell culminated with Robert Gray, a truck driver who had never run a campaign and was not even in state to vote for himself in his victorious Democrat primary, being the nominee in 2015.

But in 2019, Hood, who had won four statewide campaigns for attorney general, gave Democrats hope. And Democrats went into this Tuesday’s election with optimism, hoping the charismatic and surprisingly well-funded Presley could build on Hood’s performance from 2019. After all, Presley, thanks in large part to the Democratic Governors Association, was able to outmatch Reeves’ fundraising prowess — a rare feat for a Democrat in Mississippi. And in 2019, Hood did win some majority white counties, which also provided hope for Democrats.

Hood, for instance, was the first Democrat since 1987 to win Madison County, a Jackson suburb. Hood also won Lafayette and Oktibbeha — two predominantly white counties, but homes of major universities that include a higher percentage of college-educated residents who are more likely to vote Democratic. On Tuesday, Presley lost Lafayette and Madison, albeit by narrow margins. He kept Oktibbeha in the Democratic column. He also picked up Lowndes, a county with a plurality white population that Hood did not win in 2019.

But in the end, the differences in the losses for Hood and Presley — just as the loss by Musgrove way back in 2003 — were differences without much distinction.

Some additional takeaways from Tuesday’s gubernatorial election:

  • Hinds County is fast becoming statewide Democrats’ last and only populous stronghold. Reeves took back Madison County on Tuesday after Hood won it in 2019. Take away Hinds County’s large Democratic vote, and a statewide Democrat stands no chance with today’s Mississippi electoral maps.
  • It would appear record levels of spending by both Reeves and Presley resulted in only mediocre voter turnout. Spending totals by the campaigns will likely top $20 million, and outside interests poured in millions more. Much of this went to mudslinging ads. This did not appear to motivate voter turnout greatly on either side.
  • The Trump effect is still there, but to what extent? Democratic and Republican polling leading up to the election showed the Reeves-Presley race much tighter than it played out, and Republicans were extremely worried about anemic turnout. But Reeves got a late endorsement by former President Donald Trump. Trump remains popular in Mississippi, and it’s certain this helped Reeves, but the extent will likely never be known.
  • A Democratic candidate could use help from a third-party one. Given that 46%-47% ceiling, pushing to a runoff might offer a Democrat a better chance. Many politicos believed Presley’s best chance at survival Tuesday night was for little-known independent Gwendolyn Gray (who had dropped out but was still on the ballot) to siphon votes from Reeves and force a runoff between the Republican and Democrat. But that math required Gray to pull around 3% of the vote, and take it mostly from Reeves. Instead, Gray earned 1.4%, and appeared to take quite a few votes from Presley as well — perhaps in protest to negative campaigning.
  • The Coast remains ruby red. Presley campaigned hard on the Coast, attempting to turn out Black voters particularly in Harrison and Jackson counties and a fairly sizable union shipyard vote. But Reeves still ran the tables there, picking up a nearly 19,000 vote margin, only slightly smaller than his Coast take in 2019.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

Mississippi Today

Bill to revise law for low-income pregnant women passes first legislative hurdle

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mississippitoday.org – Sophia Paffenroth – 2025-01-22 18:00:00

Low-income women would be able to access free prenatal care faster under a bill that passed the House Medicaid committee Wednesday. 

The same law passed the full Legislature last year, but never went into effect due to a discrepancy between what was written into state law and federal regulations for the program, called Medicaid pregnancy presumptive eligibility.

House Medicaid Chair Missy McGee, R-Hattiesburg, author of the bill, revised last year’s bill to remove the requirement women show proof of income. She is hopeful the policy will garner the same support it did last year when it overwhelmingly passed both chambers. 

House Medicaid Committee Chairwoman Missy McGee, R-Hattiesburg. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

“CMS (The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services) had some issues that they really did not approve of in our law, and after we talked it through we realized that the changes they wanted to make do no harm to the intent of the Legislature, do no harm to the law itself, do not add any costs to the fiscal note of the program,” McGee said during the committee meeting. 

Changes include that a pregnant woman will only have to attest to her income – not provide paystubs – and will not have to provide proof of pregnancy. 

McGee’s bill also makes changes to the time frame for presumptive Medicaid eligibility. Last year’s legislation said women would only be eligible for 60 days under the policy, with the hopes that by the end of those 60 days her official Medicaid application would be approved. Federal guidelines already have a different timeframe baked in, which state lawmakers have included in this bill. 

The federal timeframe, now congruent with McGee’s bill, says a pregnant woman will be covered under presumptive eligibility until Medicaid approves her official application, however long that takes – as long as she submits a Medicaid application before the end of her second month of presumptive eligibility coverage. 

“Let’s say a woman comes in for January 1 and is presumed eligible. She has until February 28 to turn her application in,” McGee said, adding that if Medicaid took a month to approve her application, the pregnant woman would continue to be covered through March. 

Eligible women will be pregnant and have a household income up to 194% of the federal poverty level, or about $29,000 annually for an individual. 

The bill does not introduce an additional eligibility category or expand coverage. Rather, it simply allows pregnant women eligible for Medicaid to get into a doctor’s office earlier. That’s notable in Mississippi, where Medicaid eligibility is among the strictest in the country, and many individuals don’t qualify until they become pregnant. 

An expectant mother would need to fall under the following income levels to qualify for presumptive eligibility in 2025:

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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WATCH: Auditor Shad White calls Senate chairman ‘liar,’ threatens to sue during budget hearing

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mississippitoday.org – Taylor Vance – 2025-01-22 17:28:00

A Wednesday budget hearing for the State Auditor’s Office devolved into shouting and a tense back and forth that culminated in Auditor Shad White calling Sen. John Polk of Hattiesburg a liar and threatening to sue the legislator for defamation. 

In what would normally be a mundane meeting at the state Capitol, the Appropriations subcommittee hearing erupted over questions related to NFL hall of fame quarterback Brett Favre and a $2 million dollar consultant’s study White commissioned to determine ways state leaders could save money.

“You’re not a lawyer — this is not a cross examination,” White told Polk, the Republican who helps set his agency’s budget. 

The first argument between the two occurred when Polk questioned how White’s agency calculated the dollar figure for investigative fees and unpaid interest the auditor alleges Favre owes the state in connection to the state federal welfare scandal. 

“I’ve had several numbers people look at the court record and look at what you’re saying (Favre) owes, and nobody can make it come to your number,” Polk said. “Does that surprise you?” 

White did not address the specific instance of how the agency calculated the figure, but he said generally the agency tracks the number of hours certain investigators spend on a case. But White took issue that Polk was questioning that dollar figure at all. 

“I have never once been called before this body to testify before any sort of hearing on the DHS scandal,” White responded. “The largest public fraud in state history. And the first question I get in my time as state auditor from a state senator is ‘Hey did you get the Brett Favre number correct?’” 

The other major argument that erupted in the hearing was when Polk questioned a $2 million contract that White’s agency executed with Massachusetts-based consulting firm Boston Consulting Group to find wasteful spending in state agencies.

White believes the contract with the firm was necessary to determine how state leaders can trim the fat in state agencies. But Polk has questioned whether auditor skirted the appropriations process by not getting legislative or gubernatorial approval to conduct the study, and whether the study was more to help White’s future political ambitions than address government spending..

Polk alleged that White did not conduct a proper Request for Proposal, a process government bodies use to solicit services from private companies. The process is used to encourage competition among businesses and net the lowest price. 

“You are a liar,” White said of Polk. “You’re making this up right now.” 

Polk responded that the Department of Finance and Administration told him White’s agency did not use an RFP. 

The Forest County lawmaker also asked White if any of his family members had worked for Boston Consulting Group. The auditor said no and if Polk insinuated that any of his family had, then he would sue the legislator for defamation. 

“This line of questioning feels less about policy and it feels more about politics to me,” White said. “That’s exactly what it feels like. I’ve never been questioned on an audit like this right up until the moment where the lieutenant governor thinks I might be the thing standing between him and the governor’s office.” 

Both White and Republican Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann have publicly said they’re considering running for governor in 2027. Hosemann, the presiding officer of the Senate, appoints senators to lead committees. 

Polk told Mississippi Today in an interview that Hosemann had not directed him to ask any specific question, and the lieutenant governor gives deference to committee leaders on how to manage committee functions. Rather, Polk said he was the one who originally raised his concerns with Hosemann. 

Polk said his line of questioning simply stemmed from his role on the money-spending Appropriations Committee, which sets his agency’s budget, and was to ensure that White’s agency was spending money efficiently. 

“So that’s my only thing here — is to make sure the citizens of Mississippi and the taxpayers of Mississippi get their money’s worth from you or anyone else in state government,” Polk said. “And I’ll be honest with you, your calling me a liar previously is so uncalled for.” 

Polk recently requested and received an attorney general’s opinion that said White overstepped his authority in hiring the consultant for $2 million. An AG opinion does not carry the force of law, but serves as a legal guideline for public officials.

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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Jackson State faculty senate president sues for wrongful termination

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mississippitoday.org – Molly Minta – 2025-01-22 17:00:00

The Jackson State University’s president and governing board are facing a lawsuit from the faculty senate president who last fall was placed on leave pending termination. 

Dawn McLin’s lawsuit comes more than two months after a faculty panel reviewed the university’s basis for her termination and recommended she be reinstated to her position as a psychology professor. 

But the university’s president, Marcus Thompson, has yet to respond to the panel’s recommendation, putting McLin in what she alleges is a state of limbo meant to force her to resign. 

“Their intentional delay prevents Dr. McLin’s reinstatement and continued oversight of her research grants while, at the same time, rendering it impossible for Dr. McLin to pursue alternative employment in academia,” the lawsuit states. 

McLin has received support from the Jackson State faculty senate, as well as state and national organizations that support academic freedom, including the American Association of University Professors. Thompson has ignored multiple letters from the professional organization, which has called his delay in reinstating McLin as “extremely disturbing.”  

A Jackson State spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment by press time. A spokesperson for the Institutions of Higher Learning Board of Trustees said the board does not comment on pending litigation.

McLin’s lawsuit is not the only legal action that Thompson is contending with on the heels of his first year as president of Mississippi’s largest historically Black university. A federal judge recently allowed a former administrator’s lawsuit against IHL for hiring Thompson to proceed, prompting individual trustees to appeal the decision to the 5th U.S. Court of Appeals.

This month, another former administrator named Linda Rush filed a lawsuit alleging discrimination when Thompson demoted her to hire a less-experienced man, Kylon Alford-Windfield, to lead the university’s division of enrollment management. Sixty days later, the lawsuit claims, Alford-Windfield fired Rush without cause. 

Reached for comment, Alford-Windfield said he had not read the lawsuit before murmuring “hm, that’s funny” after a reporter described the complaint. 

A ‘sham investigation’ in retaliation

McLin’s lawsuit alleges that Jackson State undertook a “sham investigation” at IHL’s behest to remove her from the university after she oversaw repeated no-confidence votes in the administration. 

This prompted an associate provost named Brandi Newkirk-Turner to “seek revenge” through her close relationship with Thompson and the IHL commissioner, Alfred Rankins, according to the lawsuit. 

On Aug. 1, shortly after McLin’s contract was renewed, she was given a letter from Thompson stating his intent to terminate her for cause, including “hostile conduct, bullying, harassment and intimidation of fellow JSU employees (including those over whom you have no supervisory responsibilities), interference in the re-accreditation process, abuse of your position as president of the Faculty Senate, and interference in departmental business operations.” 

Though Thompson stated multiple grievances and complaints had been filed against McLin, his letter named just one specific example, a time when McLin allegedly turned her chair in a “show of disrespect” to a faculty member who was giving a presentation. 

That professor was Newkirk-Turner, McLin alleged in the lawsuit. 

When McLin requested a hearing in front of a faculty panel, Jackson State took over six weeks to respond, the lawsuit alleges, even though university policies state that when an employee is suspended or placed on leave, an investigation must move forward as quickly as possible. 

The university allegedly gave McLin 10 days to prepare for the hearing, but refused to provide her employment contracts, post-tenure reviews, personnel file or the investigative file underpinning her termination. 

During the hearing, McLin’s attorney was not allowed to speak on her behalf, even though Jackson State appeared to the panel through an attorney named Charles Winfield, the lawsuit alleges. 

Winfield did not present any witnesses to support the university’s allegations, the lawsuit states. It is unclear if he presented more allegations against McLin than Thompson’s letter did. 

The faculty panel ultimately found that Thompson’s firing of McLin was “retaliatory in nature, ultimately promoted by [Dr. Newkirk-Turner], and moved along by a ‘fact finding mission’ initiated by IHL.”

Demoted, then allegedly fired without reason

When Thompson was named president by the IHL board, a longtime administrator at Jackson State named Linda Rush was serving as the interim vice president for enrollment management.

Rush, who had worked at Jackson State for more than 25 years, allegedly told Thompson she wanted to remain in the position. Thompson praised her contributions to the university, calling her “a gift” who “will not be going anywhere because she is JSU.” 

But in mid-January, Thompson demoted Rush to executive director of admissions, hiring in her place Alford-Windfield, who had about five years of experience in higher education, the lawsuit alleges. 

Thompson and Alford-Windfield were connected: The two were candidates in Jackson State’s executive doctoral program in urban higher education. Days after Thompson’s appointment as president, he went on an international trip with Alford-Windfield and other students from the program. 

After that, Rush alleges that Alford-Windfield left her to perform all aspects of his job, including preparing his cabinet reports and speaking notes, while he posted daily Instagram stories.

Sixty days later, Alford-Windfield fired Rush without reason, offered to write her a letter of recommendation and had her escorted from campus. 

This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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