Connect with us

News from the South - North Carolina News Feed

Looking for clues to handicap the 2024 winner in North Carolina, where margins are razor close? • Asheville Watchdog

Published

on

avlwatchdog.org – TOM FIEDLER – 2024-10-23 06:00:00

With the beginning of early voting across North Carolina last Thursday we are now in the political equivalent of a baseball game’s early innings or in football’s first quarter. Although teams may be putting points on the board, much can happen before the close of counting on Election Day, Nov. 5.

But while those numbers don’t tell us everything, they may tell us something. In my judgment, there are a few key numbers to know and to follow as we approach the finish, as they may be the measures of victory or defeat. (Note the emphasis on the word “may,” which translates into “take with grain of salt.”) 

Most crucial among these numbers is 74,483. Expressed in a different way, this number is 1.34 percent. To which you likely respond: What are you talking about?  

Donald Trump, in his 2020 loss to Joe Biden, carried North Carolina by that number of votes. His victory margin was 1.34 percent – the smallest margin of the 25 states he won.  

Of course many things have changed since then that may affect that number. The state’s population has grown and become younger and more urban. The party registration numbers have shifted from Democrats and Republicans and toward independents. Kamala Harris isn’t Joe Biden. Trump was impeached a second time after his involvement in the January 6, 2021, insurrection, and he awaits sentencing after being convicted of 34 felonies. 

Still, as consequential as each of those factors would typically be, every credible poll taken since Biden stepped aside and endorsed Harris has found the race to be a dead heat. It’s about where things stood on Election Day 2020.

That suggests the key to handicapping the outcome this year is to find clues in the latest numbers that the ex-president, despite his many legal issues, is hanging on, or that Harris has bridged the gap and can flip the outcome her way. 

Last Thursday, the first day of early voting, 5,607 more people cast ballots across the state than did so in 2020, // Watchdog photo by Starr Sariego

Here’s one of those key clues: Last Thursday, the first day of early voting, 5,607 more people cast ballots across the state than did so in 2020, which itself was a record. That one day itself represents a 1.3 percent jump. In addition, a record 75,133 absentee ballots were accepted (although they won’t be counted until voting ends Nov. 5). 

Of course we can’t know for which candidate those ballots were cast. But we do know that more registered Democrats voted that day than registered Republicans, according to state Board of Elections data, which may be a measure of enthusiasm by party loyalists. And notably, more Democrats voted than registered independents (officially called unaffiliated voters), which is by far the largest voting bloc.

Not surprisingly in blue Buncombe County, three Democrats turned out on the first day for every Republican. The Democrats had a slimmer 6-5 edge over the unaffiliated, whose leanings are less predictable. 

The opening-day trend has continued through Monday, with registered Democrats out-voting registered Republicans and the unaffiliated, though by fractions of a percentage point.    

In sports terms, this means only that the Democrats may have taken a slender lead in the early minutes of the game. We also know from recent elections that Democrats like to vote early while Republicans tend to vote more heavily on Election Day, though this may be changing. As I said, take these numbers with salt. 

I’ll leave you with one interesting, though irrelevant statistic: Oddsmakers in NFL games have found that the team with a lead after the first quarter wins 65.75 percent of the time.

Your vote can ensure that nothing will get done

I have been asked by some Asheville Watchdog readers to explain the purpose of a proposed amendment to the North Carolina Constitution appearing to make it illegal for foreigners to cast ballots here. What puzzles these readers is the fact that it is already illegal for non-citizens to vote in our elections. In fact, it’s a felony. And every voter acknowledges this when signing their ballot-authorization paper.  

It brings to mind a nursery rhyme that begins like this: Yesterday upon the stair I met a man who wasn’t there. He wasn’t there again today. I wish, I wish he’d go away.

This proposed amendment is the state House Republicans’ version of that invisible man upon the stair. Because of their efforts, that man still isn’t there. The original ditty by Hughes Mearns was meant to rid children of their belief in boogeymen under the bed who, of course, weren’t there and continued not being there night after night.

In this case, led by departing House Speaker Tim Moore who needed an issue to boost his election to Congress, the invisible boogeymen are anti-GOP foreigners who sneak into the country to cast ballots to sway elections (apparently favoring Democrats).

There is no evidence of this happening. But Moore felt the need to demonize immigrants – including naturalized citizens – so some may stay home on Election Day. Moore’s GOP friends in Raleigh humored him by drafting this constitutional amendment to amend the existing one and ensure that nothing will result that isn’t already not being done.

Here is the current law: “Every person born in the United States and every person who has been naturalized” shall be entitled to vote. And here is the proposed amendment to the law: “[O]nly a citizen of the United States…” shall be entitled to vote.

Do you see the difference and now understand why the GOP believes the new amendment is needed? Of course you don’t. So why would House Republicans take the rare step of putting this measure before voters? 

Because this is a year in which immigrant fear-mongering runs through the GOP in both the state Assembly and in Congress.  

So what are voters to do when they get to this ballot question? They can vote no, in which case nothing will change. Or they can vote yes, and nothing still won’t change. Or they can skip the line and be sure that nothing will change.  

And we can all wish that this partisan nonsense will go away.

Helene, Asheville and Project 2025

Among the crucial federal agencies severely disrupted by Tropical Storm Helene is the National Climatic Data Center, which is headquartered in Asheville. This is the government operation that maintains the world’s largest archive of meteorological and climatological data on Earth. Among its achievements: The scientific evidence of global warming was collected and reported by the NCDC, based on the Asheville archive.

Despite its scientific importance, the pro-Trump Project 2025 proposes to break up the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NCDC’s parent), sell its weather-forecasting functions to commercial operators, and smother its Asheville-based climate-change reporting. Project 2025 is the right-wing Heritage Foundation’s blueprint for the next Trump administration should he win the election.

Project 2025 characterizes the agency as the power behind the “climate change alarm industry.” But Mother Nature apparently got a head start on this plan by directing Helene (according to Marjorie Taylor Greene) to slam into the NCDC’s digitized operations center in downtown Asheville, putting access to its archive off line for several days.    


Asheville Watchdog is a nonprofit news team producing stories that matter to Asheville and Buncombe County. Tom Fiedler is a Pulitzer Prize-winning political reporter and dean emeritus from Boston University who lives in Asheville. Email him at tfiedler@avlwatchdog.org. The Watchdog’s reporting is made possible by donations from the community. To show your support for this vital public service go to avlwatchdog.org/support-our-publication/.

Original article

The post Looking for clues to handicap the 2024 winner in North Carolina, where margins are razor close? • Asheville Watchdog appeared first on avlwatchdog.org

The Watchdog

News from the South - North Carolina News Feed

Poll: Robinson did not hurt other candidates | North Carolina

Published

on

www.thecentersquare.com – By Alan Wooten | The Center Square – 2024-11-21 14:09:00

SUMMARY: A recent poll indicates that nearly half of respondents believe Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s issues did not affect their voting choices. Robinson lost the gubernatorial race to Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein, with his campaign suffering from a CNN report linking him to a past porn chat room. Despite this, 50.1% of voters now feel America is on the right track, an increase from previous months. Stein holds a 53.2% approval rating, and other elections resulted in a split of statewide positions between Democrats and Republicans. The poll included 615 responses with a margin of error of +/- 3.94%.

Read the full article

The post Poll: Robinson did not hurt other candidates | North Carolina appeared first on www.thecentersquare.com

Continue Reading

News from the South - North Carolina News Feed

Helene: Assistance of $227M overshadowed by authority changes | North Carolina

Published

on

www.thecentersquare.com – By Alan Wooten | The Center Square – 2024-11-21 13:39:00

SUMMARY: The North Carolina General Assembly has passed legislation providing $227 million in fiscal recovery aid for Hurricane Helene, totaling $1.1 billion in assistance for various disaster relief efforts. The bill also includes significant changes to authority for state leaders, such as placing the State Board of Elections under the State Auditor’s office and restricting the attorney general’s ability to challenge the General Assembly. Critics, predominantly Democrats, argue these modifications serve Republican interests and compromise election integrity. The legislation reflects ongoing political tensions, exacerbated by recent court challenges and contentious executive actions during COVID-19.

Read the full article

The post Helene: Assistance of $227M overshadowed by authority changes | North Carolina appeared first on www.thecentersquare.com

Continue Reading

News from the South - North Carolina News Feed

At least 3 of 43 fatalities in Buncombe were unhoused people • Asheville Watchdog

Published

on

avlwatchdog.org – JOHN BOYLE and SALLY KESTIN – 2024-11-21 06:00:00

Asheville Watchdog is bringing you the stories behind the staggering loss of life from Helene, the children, parents, grandparents, multiple generations of a single family, all gone in one of the worst natural disasters to hit the mountains of western North Carolina. This is the seventh installment.

Buncombe County’s homeless advocates feared the worst: Helene would be deadly for the dozens of unhoused people living along the banks of rivers and streams that turned into raging floodwaters.

“We thought that the death toll just in this population was going to be up in the 20s, 30s, just because of how many people camp on the rivers,” said Alanna Kinsella, homeless services director at Homeward Bound.

Read previous installments of The Lives We Lost.

Asheville Watchdog has identified three unhoused people of the 43 who perished in Buncombe from the Sept. 27 tropical storm: Jody Henderson, an Air Force veteran described by his sister as extremely loving, Calvin “Michael” McMahan, who liked to travel and preach to people he met, and Lisa Plemmons, a cook at an Asheville nursing home who was living in her car and had been featured in a previous installment of The Lives We Lost.

About five unhoused people remain unaccounted for, Kinsella said.

“Did they leave town before? Do we have their legal name? It’s really hard to know,” she said. “It could only be one or two people that are really actually missing.”

The toll on Asheville’s homeless community turned out to be lower than feared. The Asheville-Buncombe Homeless Coalition called a Code Purple beginning the morning of Sept. 26, opening shelter space for anyone who needed it and providing free bus transportation.

Teams that included community paramedics and outreach workers visited homeless encampments to warn people near water and urge them to seek shelter. Advocates were also able to spread the word about Code Purple early because of the persistent rains ahead of the storm.

At AHOPE, a day shelter run by Homeward Bound, “so many people were coming in here at that time because people needed to get dry, they needed to get supplies,” Kinsella said. “We were really able to disseminate that information really quickly.”

Many went to shelters, “and a lot of our campers really moved into the core of town,” Kinsella said.

In the weeks after the storm, advocates have been attempting to account for everyone. Asheville’s 2024 Point-In-Time count identified 739 people without housing, most in emergency shelters or transitional housing, but 219 were camping, sleeping in cars or on the street.  

The task has been difficult because some homeless people were known only by aliases or street names.

“It really took an entire community of us to come together and say, ‘Okay, I know that person’s legal name,’ or ‘I only know them by this,’“ Kinsella said. “It was a lot of really having to piece things together.

“It may be a while before we know the full scope of who all from our community, of people experiencing homelessness, have been lost.”

Here are two of their stories.

Jody Henderson

Jody Henderson’s life never was easy, but he “was one of the most loving people you would ever meet,” said his sister, Kathy Henderson Cook.

Her younger brother struggled with bipolar disorder and was often homeless and unable to work. Henderson had a high IQ and was good looking, she said, but the disease kept him hamstrung for most of his adult life.

“He had so much going for him, but he just couldn’t put that grasp on things and just stay with it,” Cook said. “He would float off, and then he would just get kind of loopy.”

Henderson, 63, died Sept. 27, swept away by Helene’s floodwaters, according to his death certificate. 

He had been staying at the Veterans Restoration Quarters on Tunnel Road in East Asheville, but Cook said he’d spent a couple of weeks at the VA hospital for mental health treatment.

On the day before Helene, Henderson was on a “weekend pass” from the VRQ and rented a cabin along the Swannanoa River at the KOA Campground. He needed a space that would accept dogs, as he didn’t want to go somewhere without his beloved mutt and emotional support dog, Bullet.

Cook said that on Sept. 27, as the river breached its banks and the water rose, her brother was standing on top of the cabin. An evacuation team had just arrived. As he often did when his situation was dire, Henderson called his sister.

“He called me at 9:17,” Cook said. 

Their conversation was short.

“He said, ‘Sis, I love you. The evac team just arrived. I’ll call you,’” Cook said. “He hung up, and he was gone.”

A witness at the campground said “it was around 10 o’clock when the building collapsed and everything went crazy,” Cook said.

Jody Nyle Henderson grew up with Cook in Chesnee, South Carolina, and had lived in California, Utah, Nevada, North Carolina and Texas before returning to Chesnee in 2018,  according to his obituary. He attended Chesnee High School and Spartanburg Community College before joining the U.S. Air Force.

He is survived by three children, Cook and another sister, Kristi Henderson Walker. A brother, Michael Kenneth Henderson, died previously.

Jody Henderson’s emotional support dog, Bullet, survived Helene’s flooding and is now living with a friend in Maryland. // Courtesy of Kathy Henderson Cook

“His final days were in a log cabin with his beloved dog Bullet by the Swannanoa River with a view of God’s beautiful creation surrounding him as he made new friends,” his obituary states. “Bullet was adopted by one of those new friends, Chelsea of Maryland, who rescued Bullet from the flooding.”

Cook said her brother easily made friends, including Chelsea, whom he met at the campground. She did not want her last name published. 

“He’d never met her. Didn’t know her, but of course, you know — two hours with Jody — best friends,” Cook said.

Cook, who called her brother “Bo,” said his death has been difficult, and she still has “moments where I tend to struggle with emotional issues.

“But as a whole, I know this was a blessing from God,” Cook said, explaining that she always worried about her brother, especially when he stopped his medications and was unhoused. 

He would end up in need and then call to come stay with her, she said.

“He would do anything for me — he just didn’t have the ability to fight the disease,” Cook said. “And I don’t hold that against him.”

She noted that her brother suffered from “tall tale syndrome,” exaggerating facts or making up stories.

She and her sister take comfort knowing that Henderson went out with a story that would normally be hard to believe, one involving a historic storm that showed immense power and swept away entire buildings. 

They’ve also taken comfort in the outpouring of support from the community, from churches to governmental agencies.

“It was a blessing to have to lose somebody and be as fortunate as we are in a community like we live in, to have people come together,” Cook said.

– John Boyle, Asheville Watchdog

Calvin “Michael” McMahan

Calvin McMahan’s sister feared the worst after Helene when she did not hear from the big brother who never went more than a few weeks without checking in.

Calvin “Michael” McMahan liked traveling to different places and preaching to the people he met. // Courtesy of Pamela Douthit

The last she knew, McMahan, who went by his middle name, Michael, had been in Asheville, said Pamela Douthit of Bryson City. “I was wondering where he was, hoping he was okay, worried to death,” she said.

Douthit said police told the family that McMahan had drowned in the storm. His body was found Sept. 30 on Glendale Avenue along the Swannanoa River in one of the areas hardest hit by flooding.

The official cause of death was “landslide injuries,” according to his death certificate.

McMahan, 63, was the oldest of 10 children and had been unhoused for the past 15 to 20 years, his sister said.

Michael McMahan, far right, was the oldest of 10 children. Eight of the McMahan siblings are pictured in this family photo with their mother, Mildred, front. // Courtesy of Pamela Douthit

“He lived everywhere,” she said. “He had property here in Swain County, but he wanted to travel. He wanted to visit different places, so he decided being homeless was his choice.”

McMahan liked to preach to the people he met. “He testified to people,” Douthit said. “He talked about God and how free we are and how thankful we are.”

McMahan visited his sister and her husband in Bryson City from time to time and would stay for a couple of weeks. “He said he had to do God’s work, so he went on out down the road,” she said.

McMahan had been staying under a bridge near the Swannanoa. His sister said he frequented homeless shelters in bad weather and must not have known about the dangerous flooding predicted in Helene.

Michael McMahan, right, as a child with his sisters, Pamela, middle, and Kathy. // Courtesy of Pamela Douthit

“I guess it just snuck up on him. He was asleep or something,” she said. “I hate that he had to go the way he did.” 

McMahan had a son and a daughter in Florida, she said. He had been a house painter and loved the guitar, though he did not know how to play.

“Like anyone else, he made mistakes, but he tried to do the best he could do for other people,” Douthit said.

McMahan had “some trouble with the law…He changed his life, and he started working for the Lord and doing what the Lord said to do. I was proud of that,” his sister said.

“I loved him. He was a good person,” she said. “He will be missed.”

– Sally Kestin, Asheville Watchdog


Asheville Watchdog is a nonprofit news team producing stories that matter to Asheville and Buncombe County. John Boyle has been covering Asheville and surrounding communities since the 20th century. You can reach him at (828) 337-0941, or via email at jboyle@avlwatchdog.org. Sally Kestin is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative reporter. Email skestin@avlwatchdog.org. The Watchdog’s local reporting during this crisis is made possible by donations from the community. To show your support for this vital public service go to avlwatchdog.org/support-our-publication/.

Original article

The post At least 3 of 43 fatalities in Buncombe were unhoused people • Asheville Watchdog appeared first on avlwatchdog.org

The Watchdog

Continue Reading

Trending